Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#152
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#193
Pace70.9#128
Improvement+0.6#110

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot+2.3#105
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#214
Layup/Dunks+3.3#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#255
Freethrows+1.0#142
Improvement+0.2#144

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#209
First Shot-1.8#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#148
Layups/Dunks-0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#234
Freethrows+2.3#67
Improvement+0.5#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 21.8% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 89.0% 91.0% 74.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 94.7% 90.2%
Conference Champion 30.9% 32.1% 22.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.7%
First Round20.6% 21.4% 15.1%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 211   @ Duquesne W 77-72 49%     1 - 0 +5.6 +0.4 +4.9
  Nov 06, 2024 25   @ Arkansas L 60-76 8%     1 - 1 +0.4 -7.3 +8.6
  Nov 09, 2024 206   Wofford W 78-69 71%     2 - 1 +3.8 +10.9 -5.8
  Nov 12, 2024 141   Belmont L 79-80 58%     2 - 2 -2.6 +4.6 -7.2
  Nov 17, 2024 122   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 30%     2 - 3 +0.8 -10.3 +11.5
  Nov 19, 2024 10   @ Kentucky L 68-97 5%     2 - 4 -9.1 +1.8 -10.3
  Nov 24, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 81-69 88%    
  Nov 30, 2024 345   @ Alabama A&M W 79-69 82%    
  Dec 03, 2024 169   @ Chattanooga L 74-76 42%    
  Dec 05, 2024 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 83-71 87%    
  Dec 19, 2024 164   @ Middle Tennessee L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 02, 2025 187   @ Jacksonville L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 297   Queens W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 11, 2025 353   West Georgia W 83-66 93%    
  Jan 16, 2025 336   @ Bellarmine W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 186   @ North Alabama L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 80-69 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 297   @ Queens W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 327   Stetson W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 20, 2025 186   North Alabama W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 24, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 83-68 90%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.0 9.1 7.1 3.7 0.9 30.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.4 6.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.4 4.7 1.1 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 8.3 11.8 14.2 15.5 14.7 12.0 7.6 3.7 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.3% 3.7    3.6 0.1
16-2 94.3% 7.1    6.1 1.0 0.0
15-3 76.2% 9.1    6.2 2.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 47.7% 7.0    2.7 3.1 1.0 0.1
13-5 16.9% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.9% 30.9 20.0 8.2 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 55.9% 55.6% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6%
17-1 3.7% 48.1% 48.1% 12.8 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9
16-2 7.6% 40.6% 40.6% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.5
15-3 12.0% 33.8% 33.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.8 0.1 7.9
14-4 14.7% 26.2% 26.2% 14.4 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.2 10.8
13-5 15.5% 19.8% 19.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 12.4
12-6 14.2% 15.8% 15.8% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 12.0
11-7 11.8% 12.0% 12.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 10.4
10-8 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.6
9-9 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.2
8-10 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.1
7-11 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 6.3 6.0 3.1 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.1 4.5 1.5 1.5 6.0 47.8 35.8 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 4.0% 12.0 4.0