Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#101
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#155
Pace66.9#222
Improvement-1.6#259

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#113
First Shot+1.7#124
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows-1.6#283
Improvement+0.8#133

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#114
First Shot+1.2#134
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#112
Layups/Dunks+1.7#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement-2.5#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.3% 39.6% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 98.7%
Conference Champion 43.1% 43.8% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round39.3% 39.6% 28.6%
Second Round4.4% 4.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 8
Quad 414 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 129   @ Duquesne W 77-72 49%     1 - 0 +9.5 +2.2 +6.9
  Nov 06, 2024 50   @ Arkansas L 60-76 20%     1 - 1 -2.8 -8.2 +6.4
  Nov 09, 2024 162   Wofford W 78-69 74%     2 - 1 +6.6 +11.8 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 130   Belmont L 79-80 68%     2 - 2 -1.6 +3.2 -4.8
  Nov 17, 2024 128   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 49%     2 - 3 -0.5 -10.3 +10.1
  Nov 19, 2024 15   @ Kentucky L 68-97 9%     2 - 4 -9.7 -0.8 -8.4
  Nov 24, 2024 299   Jackson St. W 77-53 90%     3 - 4 +13.8 +2.0 +12.0
  Nov 30, 2024 358   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 92%     4 - 4 +26.6 +2.5 +22.5
  Dec 03, 2024 143   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 52%     5 - 4 +21.7 +10.4 +12.1
  Dec 05, 2024 258   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 87%     6 - 4 +9.9 +3.5 +6.7
  Dec 19, 2024 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 47%     6 - 5 +3.0 +0.2 +2.6
  Jan 02, 2025 173   @ Jacksonville W 70-65 58%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +7.1 +9.7 -1.9
  Jan 04, 2025 257   @ North Florida W 96-64 76%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +29.0 +9.1 +17.5
  Jan 09, 2025 220   Queens L 73-75 82%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -7.7 +4.2 -12.1
  Jan 11, 2025 340   West Georgia W 86-67 94%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +5.0 +10.0 -4.2
  Jan 16, 2025 359   @ Bellarmine W 87-53 92%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +22.4 +10.5 +14.0
  Jan 18, 2025 293   Austin Peay W 88-60 90%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +18.1 +17.3 +2.4
  Jan 23, 2025 164   @ North Alabama L 64-74 56%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -7.4 +1.0 -9.9
  Jan 25, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 68-55 88%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +4.2 -2.3 +7.7
  Jan 30, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky L 71-80 84%     12 - 8 6 - 3 -15.5 -6.2 -9.4
  Feb 01, 2025 359   Bellarmine W 83-62 98%    
  Feb 05, 2025 340   @ West Georgia W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 220   @ Queens W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 330   Stetson W 83-66 95%    
  Feb 15, 2025 167   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 18, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 164   North Alabama W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 24, 2025 293   @ Austin Peay W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 26, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 79-61 95%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.6 21.0 17.4 43.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 13.1 10.9 0.6 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 6.0 8.6 0.7 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.8 1.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.0 15.1 27.9 32.7 18.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 96.5% 17.4    12.7 4.6 0.2
14-4 64.3% 21.0    6.7 9.8 4.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 16.5% 4.6    0.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.2
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.1% 43.1 19.9 15.8 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 18.1% 50.2% 50.2% 12.3 0.4 5.7 2.9 0.1 9.0
14-4 32.7% 42.8% 42.8% 13.1 0.0 2.5 8.2 3.3 0.1 18.7
13-5 27.9% 37.0% 37.0% 13.5 0.6 4.4 4.7 0.7 17.5
12-6 15.1% 29.0% 29.0% 13.8 0.2 1.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 10.7
11-7 5.0% 25.7% 25.7% 14.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 3.7
10-8 1.3% 25.4% 25.4% 14.5 0.2 0.2 0.9
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.3% 39.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.4 8.9 16.6 11.5 2.1 0.0 60.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.1% 100.0% 12.3 4.1 62.8 31.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0%