Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#99
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#126
Pace66.6#225
Improvement-0.6#224

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#85
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#139
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-1.5#278
Improvement+3.0#57

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#130
First Shot+0.7#159
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#115
Layups/Dunks+1.5#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows+3.4#10
Improvement-3.5#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.5% 66.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round49.5% 66.1% 0.0%
Second Round6.3% 8.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 37 - 8
Quad 415 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 128   @ Duquesne W 77-72 50%     1 - 0 +9.9 +2.7 +6.8
  Nov 06, 2024 39   @ Arkansas L 60-76 17%     1 - 1 -0.9 -6.1 +6.1
  Nov 09, 2024 143   Wofford W 78-69 74%     2 - 1 +7.3 +12.7 -4.2
  Nov 12, 2024 135   Belmont L 79-80 72%     2 - 2 -2.2 +3.0 -5.2
  Nov 17, 2024 140   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 54%     2 - 3 -1.2 -11.6 +10.7
  Nov 19, 2024 18   @ Kentucky L 68-97 10%     2 - 4 -9.8 -0.4 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 255   Jackson St. W 77-53 88%     3 - 4 +16.1 +2.5 +13.9
  Nov 30, 2024 358   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 94%     4 - 4 +25.5 +1.8 +22.0
  Dec 03, 2024 115   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 47%     5 - 4 +23.7 +9.1 +15.4
  Dec 05, 2024 212   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 83%     6 - 4 +12.5 +5.0 +7.7
  Dec 19, 2024 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 48%     6 - 5 +3.4 -0.3 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2025 189   @ Jacksonville W 70-65 65%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +6.0 +10.0 -3.3
  Jan 04, 2025 276   @ North Florida W 96-64 79%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +28.3 +10.0 +15.9
  Jan 09, 2025 214   Queens L 73-75 84%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -7.6 +4.1 -11.9
  Jan 11, 2025 349   West Georgia W 86-67 96%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +3.6 +9.6 -5.2
  Jan 16, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine W 87-53 90%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +24.8 +11.2 +15.6
  Jan 18, 2025 279   Austin Peay W 88-60 90%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +18.8 +15.2 +5.1
  Jan 23, 2025 127   @ North Alabama L 64-74 50%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -5.1 +1.7 -8.3
  Jan 25, 2025 346   @ Central Arkansas W 68-55 90%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +3.5 -3.4 +8.1
  Jan 30, 2025 197   Eastern Kentucky L 71-80 82%     12 - 8 6 - 3 -13.7 -5.9 -7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 87-80 95%     13 - 8 7 - 3 -7.6 +6.4 -13.8
  Feb 05, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 76-67 91%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -1.0 +0.3 -1.1
  Feb 08, 2025 214   @ Queens W 94-81 69%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +12.9 +20.2 -7.3
  Feb 13, 2025 351   Stetson W 93-60 96%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +17.4 +14.7 +4.1
  Feb 15, 2025 184   Florida Gulf Coast W 82-68 80%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +9.9 +9.7 +0.8
  Feb 18, 2025 197   @ Eastern Kentucky L 57-66 66%     17 - 9 11 - 4 -8.3 -15.5 +6.8
  Feb 20, 2025 127   North Alabama W 75-63 70%     18 - 9 12 - 4 +11.5 +9.2 +3.7
  Feb 24, 2025 279   @ Austin Peay W 95-78 79%     19 - 9 13 - 4 +13.3 +38.6 -22.1
  Feb 26, 2025 346   Central Arkansas W 78-60 96%     20 - 9 14 - 4 +3.0 +1.5 +2.4
  Mar 03, 2025 346   Central Arkansas W 84-66 96%     21 - 9 +3.0 +7.0 -3.3
  Mar 06, 2025 214   Queens W 80-70 84%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 49.5% 49.5% 12.9 0.0 14.4 28.0 6.9 0.1 50.6
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 49.5% 49.5% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 14.4 28.0 6.9 0.1 50.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 49.5% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 29.1 56.6 14.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 25.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.2%