Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#14
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#51
Pace74.3#49
Improvement-10.4#364

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#6
First Shot+9.7#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#47
Layup/Dunks+7.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
Freethrows+2.4#48
Improvement-3.7#344

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#58
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#40
Layups/Dunks-0.7#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#104
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement-6.7#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.4% 4.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.3% 13.5% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 34.8% 35.2% 15.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.2% 91.4% 83.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.6% 81.8% 71.4%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 53.4% 53.8% 30.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 5.3%
First Round89.9% 90.0% 81.8%
Second Round64.0% 64.2% 53.1%
Sweet Sixteen29.2% 29.4% 18.2%
Elite Eight14.0% 14.1% 9.1%
Final Four6.0% 6.0% 3.8%
Championship Game2.5% 2.5% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 015 - 8
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   Baylor W 101-63 66%     1 - 0 +50.5 +32.1 +18.2
  Nov 10, 2024 63   Arizona St. W 88-80 84%     2 - 0 +13.9 +17.3 -3.6
  Nov 15, 2024 189   Umass Lowell W 113-54 96%     3 - 0 +55.0 +19.1 +26.8
  Nov 18, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 62%     4 - 0 +26.6 +19.1 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 295   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +32.6 +13.6 +23.6
  Nov 27, 2024 32   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 64%     5 - 1 +5.0 +6.4 -0.7
  Nov 28, 2024 56   Indiana W 89-73 74%     6 - 1 +25.9 +16.6 +8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 120   Davidson W 90-65 90%     7 - 1 +27.7 +13.5 +13.5
  Dec 07, 2024 15   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 50%     7 - 2 +15.6 +15.0 +0.6
  Dec 14, 2024 24   Connecticut L 71-77 56%     7 - 3 +9.1 +2.7 +6.2
  Dec 18, 2024 211   Nicholls St. W 102-72 97%     8 - 3 +24.6 +16.0 +5.7
  Dec 21, 2024 265   Bucknell W 86-65 98%     9 - 3 +12.4 +4.0 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2024 31   UCLA L 62-65 64%     9 - 4 +10.0 +2.0 +7.8
  Dec 30, 2024 204   @ Pepperdine W 89-82 92%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +7.6 +11.2 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 307   Portland W 81-50 99%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +20.1 +2.5 +17.9
  Jan 04, 2025 153   @ Loyola Marymount W 96-68 89%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +31.5 +22.4 +7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 291   San Diego W 93-80 99%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +2.8 +12.5 -10.4
  Jan 11, 2025 84   Washington St. W 88-75 88%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +17.0 +18.1 -1.0
  Jan 16, 2025 72   @ Oregon St. L 89-97 OT 72%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +2.5 +12.1 -8.9
  Jan 18, 2025 66   Santa Clara L 99-103 85%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +1.7 +15.3 -13.1
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Portland W 92-70 98%    
  Jan 28, 2025 72   Oregon St. W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   @ St. Mary's W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 153   Loyola Marymount W 86-67 96%    
  Feb 08, 2025 302   @ Pacific W 91-69 98%    
  Feb 13, 2025 75   San Francisco W 85-73 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   Pepperdine W 91-69 98%    
  Feb 19, 2025 84   @ Washington St. W 86-79 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   St. Mary's W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 66   @ Santa Clara W 85-79 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   @ San Francisco W 82-75 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 15.6 23.8 11.9 53.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 13.4 14.0 3.2 31.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.3 4.3 0.3 9.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.5 0.2 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.5 8.3 19.8 29.9 27.1 11.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 11.9    11.4 0.5
15-3 88.1% 23.8    17.7 6.1 0.0
14-4 52.3% 15.6    5.6 8.0 1.9 0.1
13-5 10.1% 2.0    0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 53.4% 53.4 34.8 15.1 2.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 11.9% 99.7% 67.9% 31.8% 3.3 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-3 27.1% 99.2% 59.4% 39.8% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 6.0 7.5 5.3 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.0%
14-4 29.9% 94.1% 54.3% 39.8% 7.7 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.9 8.1 5.0 2.6 0.3 1.8 87.0%
13-5 19.8% 85.1% 43.3% 41.8% 8.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 3.9 4.9 4.3 1.6 0.0 3.0 73.7%
12-6 8.3% 72.8% 31.6% 41.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.4 1.3 0.0 2.3 60.2%
11-7 2.5% 52.6% 27.9% 24.7% 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 34.3%
10-8 0.5% 34.0% 15.1% 18.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 22.2%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.2% 52.4% 38.9% 7.0 1.6 2.8 3.4 5.4 8.4 13.1 14.2 15.8 12.6 10.2 3.7 0.1 8.8 81.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 2.5 19.3 33.1 31.0 14.6 1.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 100.0% 4.6 2.0 1.5 10.2 32.7 30.7 17.1 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 98.3% 5.4 0.6 5.6 16.9 28.8 29.9 12.4 3.4 0.6