Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#11
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#46
Pace73.3#57
Improvement-4.4#331

Offense
Total Offense+11.9#8
First Shot+9.6#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#46
Layup/Dunks+7.9#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement-2.9#311

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#36
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#29
Layups/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#81
Freethrows+1.6#78
Improvement-1.4#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.4% 11.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 33.2% 42.4% 7.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.3% 97.6% 92.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.0% 94.1% 83.5%
Average Seed 7.3 6.8 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.8% 14.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 0.7% 4.2%
First Round95.8% 97.5% 91.2%
Second Round71.6% 74.8% 62.7%
Sweet Sixteen33.9% 37.0% 25.1%
Elite Eight17.5% 18.9% 13.4%
Final Four8.6% 9.5% 6.1%
Championship Game3.4% 4.0% 2.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 0.7%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 73.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 7
Quad 26 - 110 - 8
Quad 35 - 015 - 8
Quad 410 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 24   Baylor W 101-63 70%     1 - 0 +50.8 +31.7 +19.0
  Nov 10, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 88-80 88%     2 - 0 +13.8 +17.1 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 225   Umass Lowell W 113-54 98%     3 - 0 +53.0 +17.0 +27.0
  Nov 18, 2024 51   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 69%     4 - 0 +26.2 +19.0 +7.4
  Nov 20, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +32.1 +13.4 +23.3
  Nov 27, 2024 41   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 73%     5 - 1 +4.1 +7.0 -2.2
  Nov 28, 2024 57   Indiana W 89-73 77%     6 - 1 +26.6 +16.3 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2024 129   Davidson W 90-65 93%     7 - 1 +26.7 +13.4 +12.7
  Dec 07, 2024 17   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 56%     7 - 2 +15.9 +15.5 +0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 32   Connecticut L 71-77 66%     7 - 3 +8.1 +4.1 +3.9
  Dec 18, 2024 192   Nicholls St. W 102-72 97%     8 - 3 +25.6 +17.1 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 232   Bucknell W 86-65 98%     9 - 3 +14.6 +3.6 +9.0
  Dec 28, 2024 27   UCLA L 62-65 64%     9 - 4 +11.7 +1.6 +9.9
  Dec 30, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine W 89-82 95%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +6.0 +9.6 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 284   Portland W 81-50 99%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +21.5 +2.1 +19.8
  Jan 04, 2025 169   @ Loyola Marymount W 96-68 93%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +30.2 +22.4 +6.5
  Jan 08, 2025 314   San Diego W 93-80 99%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +1.3 +10.4 -9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 107   Washington St. W 88-75 94%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +14.0 +15.3 -1.1
  Jan 16, 2025 87   @ Oregon St. L 89-97 OT 81%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +0.9 +9.9 -8.2
  Jan 18, 2025 60   Santa Clara L 99-103 85%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +3.2 +16.5 -12.8
  Jan 25, 2025 284   @ Portland W 105-62 97%     15 - 6 6 - 2 +38.6 +29.1 +10.1
  Jan 28, 2025 87   Oregon St. W 98-60 91%     16 - 6 7 - 2 +41.9 +31.8 +13.0
  Feb 01, 2025 30   @ St. Mary's L 58-62 54%     16 - 7 7 - 3 +13.2 +3.5 +9.2
  Feb 06, 2025 169   Loyola Marymount W 73-53 97%     17 - 7 8 - 3 +17.1 +7.0 +11.7
  Feb 08, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 78-61 97%     18 - 7 9 - 3 +13.1 +5.5 +8.1
  Feb 13, 2025 69   San Francisco W 88-77 88%     19 - 7 10 - 3 +16.6 +17.8 -1.3
  Feb 15, 2025 226   Pepperdine W 107-55 98%     20 - 7 11 - 3 +45.9 +21.8 +19.7
  Feb 19, 2025 107   @ Washington St. W 84-63 87%     21 - 7 12 - 3 +27.1 +17.4 +10.8
  Feb 22, 2025 30   St. Mary's W 74-68 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 60   @ Santa Clara W 83-77 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 69   @ San Francisco W 81-73 75%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 10.1 10.8 1st
2nd 11.2 41.1 29.7 82.0 2nd
3rd 0.9 4.8 5.7 3rd
4th 1.6 1.6 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.5 16.0 41.7 39.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 25.4% 10.1    0.7 9.4
14-4 1.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 10.8% 10.8 0.7 9.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 39.8% 99.4% 64.3% 35.1% 5.8 0.2 1.7 6.5 9.5 9.2 6.9 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 98.2%
14-4 41.7% 96.8% 58.0% 38.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.7 9.1 12.4 8.7 3.9 0.4 1.4 92.3%
13-5 16.0% 90.6% 47.4% 43.2% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 4.2 4.8 1.3 0.0 1.5 82.2%
12-6 2.5% 73.6% 40.7% 32.9% 9.9 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.7 55.5%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.3% 58.4% 37.9% 7.3 0.2 1.7 6.6 10.7 14.1 16.8 19.6 14.8 9.6 2.2 0.0 3.8 91.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.6% 100.0% 5.1 0.7 6.4 24.6 33.6 24.4 8.8 1.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.6% 98.4% 7.0 0.2 1.5 7.0 22.6 33.6 24.2 8.1 1.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6% 97.8% 7.4 0.4 5.2 16.2 30.2 28.7 15.1 2.2
Lose Out 0.3% 36.7% 11.0 3.3 30.0 3.3