Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.0 #33
Expected Predictive Rating +16.2 #24
Pace 60.9 #356
Improvement -0.4 #207

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #40 A B- B C- C+
Defense #42 B- B A A+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.34 #22 +1.2 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.80 #115 -1.7 #265
Three Pointers 50% #31 1.14 #28 +7.7 #12
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #25 +7.2 #24
Freethrows 17.1 #219 74% #144 12.5 #213
Second Chance 35.6% #50 1.04 #187 0.37 #79
Turnovers 14.9% #80
Total Offense +7.8 #40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.10 #100 +2.1 #110
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #46 0.73 #128 -1.7 #309
Three Pointers 37% #281 0.99 #151 +2.3 #99
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #94 +2.7 #94
Freethrows 12.9 #12 65% #3 8.4 #6
Second Chance 30.3% #163 0.89 #22 0.27 #62
Turnovers 20.0% #29
Total Defense +6.2 #42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 -1.6% #58
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.1% #19 -3.8% #110
Possession Length 18.3 #267 18.9 #348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #176 0.10 #15
Improvement -0.9 #233 +0.6 #149

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 8.4% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 24.4% 43.9% 20.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 97.5% 90.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.0% 97.1% 89.7%
Average Seed 7.5 6.7 7.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.8% 98.0%
Conference Champion 3.9% 13.8% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 0.8% 3.7%
First Round90.3% 97.2% 88.8%
Second Round50.9% 62.6% 48.3%
Sweet Sixteen15.0% 22.0% 13.5%
Elite Eight5.1% 7.4% 4.6%
Final Four1.6% 2.5% 1.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 18.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 9
Quad 39 - 020 - 10
Quad 43 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 BYU L 66 - 71 32% -6  0 - 1 +14 +3 F A+ B +10 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 177 Queens W 94 - 74 94% +12  1 - 1 +16 +17 C A+ B+ -1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 270 Sacred Heart W 94 - 60 97% +21  2 - 1 +25 +21 A+ A- F +7 C C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 118 Duquesne W 87 - 77 90% +6  3 - 1 +10 +14 C- A+ D -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 197 @La Salle W 70 - 55 89% +11  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ D F +8 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 240 Old Dominion W 89 - 75 97% +6  5 - 1 +7 +18 A+ B+ A+ -11 D F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 140 Temple W 74 - 56 92% +5  6 - 1 +16 +15 B C+ C +5 A B+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 182 Penn W 90 - 63 92% +15  7 - 1 +26 +21 A+ C C +6 B+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61 - 89 10% -23  7 - 2 +0 -3 B- F D+ +6 A+ C B-
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Pittsburgh W 79 - 61 85% +6  8 - 2 +21 +23 A+ B- A+ +2 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 35 Wisconsin W 76 - 66 OT 51% +7  9 - 2 +24 +9 D+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 23 56 @Seton Hall W 64 - 56 53% +8  10 - 2 1 - 0 +21 +9 A+ A+ F +13 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 99 DePaul W 71 - 66 86% -2  11 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +5 C F A+ +3 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 59 @Butler W 85 - 67 56% +3  12 - 2 3 - 0 +31 +16 A+ D+ C+ +14 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 44 Creighton L 72 - 76 70% +2  12 - 3 3 - 1 +4 +9 C+ C+ A+ -5 C- D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 102 @Marquette W 76 - 73 73% +3  13 - 3 4 - 1 +11 +15 A+ C+ A+ -4 F A- B-
 Tue, Jan 13 65 @Providence W 88 - 82 60% +7  14 - 3 5 - 1 +17 +18 A+ D+ B- -0 D+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 18 St. John's L 79 - 86 49% -3  14 - 4 5 - 2 +7 +12 A+ A- C -5 D+ B C
 Wed, Jan 21 93 Georgetown W 66 - 51 85% +8  15 - 4 6 - 2 +18 +2 C- C B+ +18 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 7 @Connecticut L 62 - 72 18%
 Fri, Jan 30 65 Providence W 83 - 75 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 56 Seton Hall W 68 - 61 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 93 @Georgetown W 73 - 68 69%
 Tue, Feb 10 102 Marquette W 78 - 66 88%
 Sat, Feb 14 44 @Creighton L 71 - 72 48%
 Tue, Feb 17 81 @Xavier W 75 - 71 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Connecticut L 65 - 69 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 59 Butler W 77 - 70 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 18 @St. John's L 70 - 76 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 99 @DePaul W 71 - 65 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 81 Xavier W 78 - 68 81%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14 +8 A B- B +6 B- B A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.3 3.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 5.3 8.1 5.1 0.8 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.8 16.5 15.7 6.9 0.8 51.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.3 9.3 16.4 21.3 21.6 15.5 7.4 2.3 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 66.4% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1
16-4 20.3% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.3
15-5 3.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.4% 99.8% 19.0% 80.8% 5.5 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 15.5% 99.7% 14.3% 85.4% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 4.8 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 21.6% 97.9% 13.2% 84.7% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.3 7.3 5.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 97.6%
13-7 21.3% 95.5% 8.4% 87.1% 8.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 6.9 4.8 1.8 0.2 1.0 95.1%
12-8 16.4% 89.0% 7.2% 81.8% 8.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 4.9 3.1 0.6 1.8 88.1%
11-9 9.3% 78.6% 5.4% 73.3% 9.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 2.7 0.9 2.0 77.4%
10-10 4.3% 63.5% 3.8% 59.8% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.6 62.1%
9-11 1.3% 30.5% 1.9% 28.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 29.2%
8-12 0.3% 9.6% 9.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.6%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.0% 10.8% 81.2% 7.5 8.0 91.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 8.0 24.0 36.0 28.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 42.9 23.8 28.6 4.8