Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.4 32
Expected Predictive Rating +17.0 26
Pace 61.8 343
Improvement -0.1 186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #42 B+ B- B C- C+
Defense B #34 B- B- B+ A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 297 67% 22 +0.8 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 295 39% 151 -2.1 284
Three Pointers 51% 21 37% 48 +7.6 14
1st FG Attempt 1.15 32 +6.4 33
Second Chance 36.2% 38 1.01 195 0.37 73
Turnovers 14.8% 51
Freethrows 0.31 179 72% 210 0.22 202
Total Offense +8.0 42

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 259 54% 85 +2.7 92
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 38 38% 161 -2.1 329
Three Pointers 38% 269 32% 107 +2.5 81
1st FG Attempt 0.96 72 +3.1 73
Second Chance 28.9% 111 0.94 60 0.27 71
Turnovers 20.6% 24
Freethrows 0.23 16 68% 25 0.16 14
Total Defense +6.5 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 132 -0.9 48
Shot Type Accuracy +5.8 31 -2.3 88
Possession Length 18.0 251 18.5 333
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 129 0.10 16
Improvement -0.6 #221 +0.5 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 6 Seed 16% 22% 8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93% 95% 89%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92% 95% 88%
Average Seed 8.0 7.6 8.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 2% 6%
First Round91% 94% 86%
Second Round49% 54% 42%
Sweet Sixteen13% 15% 9%
Elite Eight4% 5% 3%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Creighton (Away) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 6
Quad 27 - 211 - 8
Quad 39 - 120 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 21 BYU L 66 - 71 38% -6  4% 0 - 1 B+ +13 C- -2 F A+ C+ A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 218 Queens W 94 - 74 96% +12  99% 1 - 1 B+ +14 A +13 C A+ B+ C+ +2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 287 Sacred Heart W 94 - 60 98% +21  92% 2 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +17 A+ B F A- +9 C D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 108 Duquesne W 87 - 77 89% +6  66% 3 - 1 B +11 A +12 D+ A+ C- C -1 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 226 @La Salle W 70 - 55 91% +11  99% 4 - 1 A- +15 B+ +8 A+ D+ F A- +9 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 253 Old Dominion W 89 - 75 97% +6  79% 5 - 1 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ A- A- D- -8 D F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 148 Temple W 74 - 56 93% +5  89% 6 - 1 A- +16 A +11 B- C+ C A- +8 B+ B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 185 Penn W 90 - 63 92% +15  96% 7 - 1 A+ +25 A+ +19 A+ C+ C+ A- +8 B C A-
 Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61 - 89 9% -23  1% 7 - 2 C +1 D -5 C+ D C- A- +9 A+ C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 99 Pittsburgh W 79 - 61 87% +6  81% 8 - 2 A +20 A+ +21 A+ B- A+ B- +3 A+ F A-
 Fri, Dec 19 33 Wisconsin W 76 - 66 OT 50% +7  95% 9 - 2 A+ +24 B +7 C A A A+ +18 A- C- A+
 Tue, Dec 23 53 @Seton Hall W 64 - 56 55% +8  90% 10 - 2 1 - 0 A +21 B +6 A+ B+ F A+ +16 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 98 DePaul W 71 - 66 87% -2  25% 11 - 2 2 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 C D A+ B +5 B B- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 75 @Butler W 85 - 67 65% +3  47% 12 - 2 3 - 0 A+ +29 A +12 A+ C- B- A+ +16 A+ F A
 Wed, Jan 7 61 Creighton L 72 - 76 80% +2  69% 12 - 3 3 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 C C A+ D+ -4 C- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 85 @Marquette W 76 - 73 68% +3  94% 13 - 3 4 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +14 A+ B- A C -1 D B+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 60 @Providence W 88 - 82 59% +7  87% 14 - 3 5 - 1 A +18 A+ +14 A+ C- C+ B- +4 C- C A-
 Sat, Jan 17 20 St. John's L 79 - 86 49% -5  14% 14 - 4 5 - 2 B- +8 A- +10 A+ A- B- C- -2 C- B+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 76 Georgetown W 66 - 51 82% +8  74% 15 - 4 6 - 2 A +20 C +0 C- C+ B+ A+ +21 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 7 @Connecticut L 67 - 75 OT 18% +2  66% 15 - 5 6 - 3 A- +16 A- +9 D A+ B+ B +6 A+ D D
 Fri, Jan 30 60 Providence W 87 - 73 79% +10  88% 16 - 5 7 - 3 A +20 A +11 A+ F A+ A- +9 B- A A
 Wed, Feb 4 53 Seton Hall W 72 - 60 75% +10  94% 17 - 5 8 - 3 A +19 A +12 A+ D- C A- +9 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 76 @Georgetown W 80 - 73 65% -1  32% 18 - 5 9 - 3 A +18 A- +11 A+ C A- B+ +7 A F A+
 Tue, Feb 10 85 Marquette W 77 - 74 85% +3  69% 19 - 5 10 - 3 B- +7 B- +4 C A- A- B- +2 D D- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Creighton W 74 - 71 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 83 @Xavier W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Connecticut L 66 - 70 36%
 Wed, Feb 25 75 Butler W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 20 @St. John's L 70 - 76 27%
 Wed, Mar 4 98 @DePaul W 71 - 65 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 83 Xavier W 79 - 68 84%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 6 +14 B+ +8 B+ B- B B +6 B- B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ A- C B B+ 34% 15% 51% C+ B+ B+ C B- B C C- C- B B- C B- B- 36% 26% 38% B B- C+ B B- B+ A- B+ A-
1.20 67% 39% 37% +6 0 1.15 36% 1.0 .37 15% .31 72% .22 0.99 54% 38% 32% -2 -1 0.96 29% 0.9 .27 21% .23 68% .21
Nov
3		 BYU C- F F F F 29% 17% 54% A F A A+ A+ C+ C+ F D A+ A- A+ B A+ 51% 20% 29% F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C A B-
0.97 33% 22% 18% -23 0 0.56 35% 1.8 .65 16% .26 53% .14 1.04 54% 27% 31% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.8 .23 6% .33 67% .22
Nov
8		 Queens A A+ F F C- 54% 14% 32% B+ C A+ D- A+ B+ B+ C- B C+ D+ F F F 49% 13% 38% D- F A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C C-
1.38 80% 13% 22% +3 +2 1.11 56% 0.9 .51 12% .42 72% .30 1.08 64% 67% 47% +14 +2 1.33 13% 0.7 .09 23% .31 75% .23
Nov
11		 Sacred Heart A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 20% 6% 74% C- A+ A D B F F F+ F A- B- A+ F C 31% 17% 52% C C D+ D D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.43 82% 67% 50% +24 +1 1.52 43% 1.0 .43 20% .11 67% .08 0.91 53% 13% 40% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 26% .06 67% .04
Nov
15		 Duquesne A B- F C D 45% 17% 38% B+ D+ A+ C A+ C- A+ B A+ C A F F F 41% 13% 46% C+ F F A+ A- A+ D+ A C+
1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44 1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25
Nov
19		 La Salle B+ A+ A B A+ 45% 5% 50% A A+ A+ F D+ F D+ F D A- B- F B D 44% 33% 23% B D+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A-
1.18 79% 50% 38% +13 +3 1.33 46% 0.6 .29 22% .22 60% .13 0.92 53% 50% 30% 0 -1 1.00 39% 0.4 .15 27% .30 62% .18
Nov
25		 Old Dominion A+ A+ A- C+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ C- A+ A- A- A C- A- D- A A- F D- 28% 24% 48% C D B- F F C- F C F
1.34 89% 44% 33% +12 0 1.25 29% 1.4 .42 11% .44 73% .32 1.13 46% 27% 45% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.7 .38 15% .39 73% .28
Dec
1		 Temple A D D- A B- 35% 13% 52% B- B- A+ F C+ C C D- C- A- A C D B- 37% 44% 20% A+ B+ A C- B+ A- C B C+
1.28 53% 33% 40% +2 +1 1.08 54% 0.6 .33 16% .31 67% .20 0.97 47% 39% 38% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 17% .38 72% .27
Dec
6		 Penn A+ B- A A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% C A+ C+ C C+ C+ D+ B- C- A- A- A F B- 27% 37% 37% A B C C C A- A A+ A+
1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 0 1.42 33% 0.9 .30 15% .23 69% .16 0.96 46% 28% 44% -1 -3 0.94 32% 1.0 .32 21% .23 33% .08
Dec
9		 Michigan D F A- F C+ 14% 25% 61% C C+ F A D C- C F C- A- D F A+ A 35% 15% 51% A A+ B D C+ C C- A+ A-
0.78 38% 43% 26% -9 -2 0.79 14% 1.2 .16 19% .22 64% .14 1.14 68% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 36% 1.5 .52 15% .38 56% .21
Dec
13		 Pittsburgh A+ B+ F A+ A+ 45% 9% 45% A- A+ C A B- A+ A+ C- A+ B- B- D+ A+ A+ 43% 15% 43% D+ A+ F D+ F A- B- C B-
1.36 65% 25% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 5% .44 75% .33 1.05 55% 43% 20% -9 +1 0.85 44% 1.1 .47 21% .26 67% .17
Dec
19		 Wisconsin B D- C+ C C 24% 26% 50% D C A B+ A A B+ D+ B- A+ A+ B F A- 39% 16% 45% B- A- A+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.10 46% 43% 33% -2 -2 0.94 33% 1.1 .38 12% .31 68% .21 0.96 42% 38% 41% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 23% .19 60% .11
Dec
23		 Seton Hall B D C- A+ A+ 38% 8% 54% B+ A+ C A+ B+ F C F D A+ D A+ A- A+ 46% 31% 23% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ B B B
1.01 47% 33% 48% +6 +2 1.18 30% 1.3 .37 29% .35 63% .22 0.89 64% 0% 27% -12 -1 0.77 35% 0.6 .20 14% .30 69% .20
Dec
31		 DePaul C+ F F A+ C 31% 27% 42% D+ C B- F D A+ A+ D+ A+ B B+ C- C B- 41% 29% 29% B B D+ A- B- A- A A+ A+
1.06 33% 23% 50% -2 -1 0.96 33% 0.6 .20 12% .53 68% .36 0.99 52% 40% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 21% .23 58% .13
Jan
3		 Butler A A+ C+ B A+ 40% 25% 36% C- A+ D B- C- B- A+ C- A A+ B A A+ A+ 37% 19% 44% B+ A+ C F F A A+ F B
1.20 81% 38% 37% +11 0 1.23 23% 1.0 .23 15% .33 70% .23 0.94 53% 30% 17% -14 0 0.73 36% 1.5 .56 20% .25 93% .23
Jan
7		 Creighton B- C A+ F C+ 36% 31% 34% D+ C B- D C A+ C- B C D+ C- F B+ D- 28% 32% 40% A+ C- F A D D+ D+ A- C
1.14 57% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.97 32% 0.9 .29 10% .19 73% .14 1.21 64% 69% 30% +9 -2 1.16 42% 0.8 .35 13% .29 69% .20
Jan
10		 Marquette A+ A+ A+ D- A+ 37% 16% 47% C+ A+ D A+ B- A F A+ F C C- F D D- 43% 4% 53% C D C- A+ B+ C- B F C
1.20 74% 88% 29% +10 +1 1.24 26% 1.3 .35 16% .13 100% .13 1.15 59% 50% 37% +3 +2 1.14 33% 0.7 .23 14% .28 80% .22
Jan
13		 Providence A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 31% 24% 45% C- A+ A+ F C- C+ B- A- B B- F F+ A+ D+ 41% 16% 43% C+ C- A+ F C A- B A- A-
1.27 81% 42% 43% +15 -1 1.29 41% 0.6 .26 14% .30 78% .24 1.18 90% 50% 24% +9 +1 1.20 26% 1.6 .41 19% .30 71% .21
Jan
17		 St. John's A- C+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 20% 52% D+ A+ C- A+ A- B- A+ B A+ C- D C D+ D 45% 27% 29% A C- B- B B+ D+ F A- D-
1.11 54% 44% 42% +6 -1 1.13 27% 1.4 .38 20% .42 75% .32 1.21 64% 38% 36% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.1 .39 13% .50 68% .34
Jan
21		 Georgetown C B- F D- D 49% 16% 35% A C- C+ C+ C+ B+ C C+ C A+ D A+ B- A- 18% 32% 50% A+ A C- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A
1.05 58% 13% 29% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.0 .31 14% .28 73% .20 0.81 63% 21% 32% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.5 .17 27% .31 64% .20
Jan
24		 Connecticut A- F F C- D 29% 25% 45% D D A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A- A B A- A+ F+ A+ 35% 24% 41% A A+ D D+ D D F F+ F
1.04 33% 23% 30% -13 -1 0.73 38% 1.4 .52 17% .41 77% .32 1.16 53% 17% 40% -3 -1 0.94 41% 1.2 .49 14% .40 77% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Providence A B+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 19% 52% C A+ F C F A+ A- F B- A- B- F C C+ 34% 26% 40% A+ B- C A+ A A A A+ A+
1.27 63% 60% 43% +12 0 1.26 15% 1.0 .15 7% .35 64% .22 1.06 59% 54% 35% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .28 20% .26 64% .16
Feb
4		 Seton Hall A A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 13% 58% C A+ A F D- C A+ A- A+ A- C F+ A+ B+ 48% 22% 30% C- B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A-
1.14 77% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 41% 0.5 .19 24% .46 77% .35 0.95 58% 45% 13% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.8 .19 16% .21 91% .19
Feb
7		 Georgetown A- A+ D B- A+ 29% 19% 52% B- A+ C+ D+ C A- A+ F B- B+ A+ F A B+ 26% 36% 38% A+ A D+ F F A+ F+ D+ F
1.16 86% 33% 36% +9 0 1.19 32% 0.9 .29 13% .47 50% .23 1.06 38% 50% 26% -5 -3 0.86 36% 1.4 .49 20% .42 78% .33
Feb
10		 Marquette B- D+ F B- C- 32% 9% 60% B C B+ B A- A- A+ F A+ B- D- F B+ D- 42% 9% 49% B- D A+ F D- A+ F+ F F
1.10 53% 0% 36% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .41 17% .53 58% .31 1.06 67% 75% 29% +3 +2 1.12 21% 1.8 .38 26% .38 90% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.9 1.8 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 6.5 18.5 28.3 23.7 6.5 84.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.6 18.5 28.9 27.8 13.8 2.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 36.8% 1.1    0.2 0.6 0.3
16-4 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2
15-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.2 0.7 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.9% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.8% 99.3% 17.5% 81.8% 6.5 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.1%
15-5 27.8% 97.1% 12.8% 84.3% 7.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 7.7 8.0 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.8 96.7%
14-6 28.9% 93.3% 10.0% 83.3% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 7.8 8.1 4.1 0.9 1.9 92.5%
13-7 18.5% 87.8% 8.8% 79.0% 9.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 5.4 4.6 1.6 2.3 86.6%
12-8 6.6% 78.1% 7.1% 71.0% 9.6 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.0 0.0 1.4 76.5%
11-9 1.4% 57.6% 3.6% 54.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 56.0%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.8% 11.6% 81.2% 8.0 7.2 91.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 3.5 1.8 16.4 30.9 36.4 12.7 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 5.1 5.3 27.6 27.6 31.6 6.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 5.7 1.0 13.1 25.3 38.4 18.2 3.0 1.0