UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#113
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#129
Pace64.1#309
Improvement-2.3#314

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#108
First Shot+2.1#118
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#160
Layup/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
Freethrows+2.7#50
Improvement-1.6#297

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#136
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#277
Layups/Dunks+2.6#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement-0.8#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.2 12.0
.500 or above 53.3% 76.2% 49.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 64.6% 50.4%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.8% 2.1%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round2.8% 4.7% 2.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 8
Quad 22 - 53 - 13
Quad 34 - 37 - 15
Quad 410 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   Alabama St. W 93-79 88%     1 - 0 +5.0 +14.7 -9.7
  Nov 09, 2024 34   Memphis L 74-80 29%     1 - 1 +3.3 +2.9 +0.4
  Nov 14, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 89%     2 - 1 +1.0 -1.5 +2.1
  Nov 20, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 80-59 83%     3 - 1 +14.5 +11.4 +5.0
  Nov 23, 2024 199   New Mexico St. W 72-65 78%     4 - 1 +2.2 +2.3 +0.4
  Nov 28, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 58-80 19%     4 - 2 -9.1 -6.5 -3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 59   Northwestern L 61-66 29%     4 - 3 +4.2 +2.7 +0.9
  Dec 07, 2024 36   @ Creighton L 65-83 14%     4 - 4 -2.9 +3.4 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 264   Pacific W 72-65 87%     5 - 4 -1.6 +0.4 -1.7
  Dec 17, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 64-75 14%    
  Dec 21, 2024 177   UC Riverside W 73-66 76%    
  Dec 28, 2024 256   Fresno St. W 78-66 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 267   @ Air Force W 68-62 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 185   San Jose St. W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 07, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 11, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 15, 2025 47   Utah St. L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 45   @ San Diego St. L 63-73 17%    
  Jan 21, 2025 187   Wyoming W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 71   New Mexico L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   @ Nevada L 64-73 19%    
  Feb 04, 2025 58   Boise St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 187   @ Wyoming W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 267   Air Force W 71-59 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Fresno St. W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 108   Colorado St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 185   @ San Jose St. W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 28, 2025 54   Nevada L 67-70 38%    
  Mar 04, 2025 45   San Diego St. L 66-70 35%    
  Mar 07, 2025 71   @ New Mexico L 74-81 26%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.7 4.2 0.8 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.5 7.4 4.7 1.0 0.0 20.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.8 6.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 21.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.5 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 6.4 9.1 12.0 14.0 14.1 12.8 10.0 7.0 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 86.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 59.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
15-5 27.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 54.4% 23.5% 30.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.4%
17-3 0.5% 34.1% 21.7% 12.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 15.8%
16-4 1.1% 17.4% 12.8% 4.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 5.2%
15-5 2.5% 12.2% 11.2% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.2%
14-6 4.4% 8.3% 8.1% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.2%
13-7 7.0% 5.4% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.6
12-8 10.0% 4.1% 4.1% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.6
11-9 12.8% 3.0% 3.0% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.4
10-10 14.1% 2.2% 2.2% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.8
9-11 14.0% 1.3% 1.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.8
8-12 12.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
7-13 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
6-14 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.4
5-15 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.9% 2.7% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.1 0.2%