UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#98
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#98
Pace64.0#293
Improvement-0.6#216

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#144
First Shot+0.6#147
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks-0.3#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement-4.3#345

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#73
First Shot+4.9#48
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#280
Layups/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#230
Freethrows+1.4#85
Improvement+3.8#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 76.4% 92.1% 61.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 90.3% 54.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 8
Quad 22 - 64 - 14
Quad 34 - 17 - 15
Quad 410 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 93-79 93%     1 - 0 +2.7 +14.5 -11.8
  Nov 09, 2024 47   Memphis L 74-80 36%     1 - 1 +2.6 +5.2 -2.6
  Nov 14, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 80%     2 - 1 +6.9 -1.6 +8.0
  Nov 20, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 80-59 85%     3 - 1 +14.9 +10.9 +5.9
  Nov 23, 2024 146   New Mexico St. W 72-65 74%     4 - 1 +5.3 +5.8 -0.1
  Nov 28, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 58-80 18%     4 - 2 -7.3 -4.6 -3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 58   Northwestern L 61-66 30%     4 - 3 +5.3 +1.2 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 65-83 13%     4 - 4 -1.0 +4.4 -6.3
  Dec 14, 2024 277   Pacific W 72-65 90%     5 - 4 -2.0 -1.6 +0.0
  Dec 17, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 65-66 33%     5 - 5 +8.3 +5.5 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 149   UC Riverside W 66-53 74%     6 - 5 +11.1 -1.1 +13.8
  Dec 28, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 87-77 88%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +2.2 +13.2 -10.8
  Dec 31, 2024 294   @ Air Force W 77-58 82%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +14.2 +2.7 +11.6
  Jan 04, 2025 163   San Jose St. W 79-73 77%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +3.3 +11.3 -7.4
  Jan 07, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 59-81 21%     9 - 6 3 - 1 -8.5 -3.5 -6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 62-84 28%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -11.1 -1.4 -11.5
  Jan 15, 2025 45   Utah St. W 65-62 35%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +11.8 +3.0 +9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. W 76-68 21%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +21.2 +11.2 +9.8
  Jan 21, 2025 166   Wyoming L 61-63 77%     11 - 8 5 - 3 -4.8 -1.7 -3.4
  Jan 25, 2025 38   New Mexico L 73-75 32%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +7.9 +9.7 -1.9
  Jan 29, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 71-76 20%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +8.9 +1.6 +7.2
  Feb 01, 2025 80   @ Nevada L 65-71 32%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +3.7 -1.4 +5.0
  Feb 04, 2025 49   Boise St. L 62-71 37%     11 - 12 5 - 7 -0.6 -5.6 +4.7
  Feb 08, 2025 166   @ Wyoming W 68-57 60%     12 - 12 6 - 7 +13.3 +4.9 +9.4
  Feb 11, 2025 294   Air Force W 77-52 91%     13 - 12 7 - 7 +15.1 +10.6 +8.0
  Feb 15, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 52-51 77%     14 - 12 8 - 7 -1.7 -16.4 +14.8
  Feb 22, 2025 67   Colorado St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 25, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 80   Nevada W 66-65 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 51   San Diego St. L 62-65 40%    
  Mar 07, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 68-78 16%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.4 0.5 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.7 4.6 5th
6th 0.2 9.0 28.1 25.1 6.4 0.1 68.9 6th
7th 5.6 13.2 6.0 0.2 25.0 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 6.2 22.2 34.2 26.3 9.7 1.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 1.4
12-8 9.7% 3.8% 3.8% 11.6 0.2 0.2 9.4
11-9 26.3% 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 25.6 0.1%
10-10 34.2% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 33.5
9-11 22.2% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 21.9
8-12 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 1.8%