Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#11
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#27
Pace72.9#74
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#10
First Shot+8.4#16
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#74
Layup/Dunks+8.8#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#86
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+2.8#44

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#24
First Shot+6.8#20
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#182
Layups/Dunks+5.4#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows+2.3#43
Improvement-2.6#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.9% 0.5%
#1 Seed 7.5% 12.5% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 22.5% 34.8% 15.0%
Top 4 Seed 63.3% 77.2% 55.0%
Top 6 Seed 90.3% 96.1% 86.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.9% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.8% 98.9%
Average Seed 4.0 3.3 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 26.2% 43.5% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round99.3% 99.9% 98.9%
Second Round86.2% 90.6% 83.6%
Sweet Sixteen51.8% 58.2% 47.9%
Elite Eight24.3% 29.0% 21.4%
Final Four11.2% 14.2% 9.4%
Championship Game4.9% 5.9% 4.3%
National Champion1.9% 2.6% 1.5%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 26 - 315 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 10
Quad 43 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 171   Cleveland St. W 101-53 96%     1 - 0 +44.8 +20.6 +21.1
  Nov 10, 2024 59   Wake Forest L 70-72 77%     1 - 1 +7.4 +5.2 +2.1
  Nov 15, 2024 62   TCU W 76-64 85%     2 - 1 +18.0 +5.8 +11.8
  Nov 18, 2024 151   Miami (OH) W 94-67 95%     3 - 1 +25.1 +15.9 +8.1
  Nov 21, 2024 260   Tarleton St. W 72-49 98%     4 - 1 +14.6 +4.1 +12.3
  Nov 25, 2024 137   Virginia Tech W 75-63 92%     5 - 1 +13.7 +2.3 +11.4
  Nov 27, 2024 41   Xavier W 78-53 70%     6 - 1 +36.7 +10.9 +25.4
  Dec 03, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 45%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +21.6 +3.9 +17.7
  Dec 07, 2024 52   Iowa W 85-83 81%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +9.9 +6.2 +3.6
  Dec 10, 2024 46   Arkansas L 87-89 72%     8 - 2 +9.1 +12.4 -3.1
  Dec 18, 2024 45   Oklahoma L 86-87 72%     8 - 3 +10.2 +17.0 -6.8
  Dec 22, 2024 145   Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-58 95%     9 - 3 +29.6 +12.4 +17.2
  Dec 29, 2024 134   Western Kentucky W 112-64 94%     10 - 3 +47.0 +23.4 +15.7
  Jan 04, 2025 61   @ USC W 85-74 70%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +22.8 +15.7 +6.8
  Jan 07, 2025 31   @ UCLA W 94-75 56%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +34.7 +28.6 +5.6
  Jan 12, 2025 94   Washington W 91-75 90%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +19.3 +17.4 +1.3
  Jan 16, 2025 98   @ Minnesota L 81-84 OT 81%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +4.8 +12.4 -7.7
  Jan 19, 2025 55   Northwestern W 80-76 OT 82%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +11.4 +6.0 +5.0
  Jan 24, 2025 10   @ Purdue L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 27, 2025 48   Penn St. W 86-77 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 67   @ Rutgers W 81-75 72%    
  Feb 05, 2025 28   Oregon W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 56   @ Indiana W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 10   Purdue W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 16, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 21, 2025 12   Michigan St. W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 24, 2025 53   @ Nebraska W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 67   Rutgers W 84-72 87%    
  Mar 02, 2025 9   Illinois W 82-81 55%    
  Mar 05, 2025 25   Maryland W 81-76 69%    
  Mar 09, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 75-78 40%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.7 9.6 7.5 3.1 0.6 26.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 5.3 9.7 4.9 0.7 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.2 9.4 4.2 0.4 18.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 7.0 3.9 0.3 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.4 0.5 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.4 5.5 10.1 15.7 19.8 18.9 14.9 8.2 3.1 0.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 99.7% 3.1    2.9 0.1
17-3 92.0% 7.5    5.8 1.6 0.1
16-4 64.3% 9.6    4.5 4.0 1.1 0.1
15-5 24.6% 4.7    0.9 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 14.8 7.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 0.5 0.2 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.2% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 1.9 2.5 3.7 1.7 0.2 100.0%
16-4 14.9% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.6 2.1 5.1 5.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 18.9% 99.9% 18.7% 81.3% 3.3 0.7 3.4 6.7 5.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 19.8% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 4.1 0.1 1.1 4.7 6.8 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.7% 99.9% 10.7% 89.2% 4.9 0.2 1.6 4.1 5.4 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 10.1% 99.9% 6.0% 93.9% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 5.5% 99.3% 4.9% 94.3% 6.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-10 2.4% 92.1% 5.8% 86.3% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 91.6%
9-11 0.6% 75.4% 1.6% 73.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 75.0%
8-12 0.2% 26.1% 26.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 26.1%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 16.2% 83.2% 4.0 7.5 15.0 20.5 20.3 16.3 10.7 5.3 2.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0