Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#24
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#74
Pace70.5#139
Improvement-0.6#256

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#26
First Shot+7.1#28
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks+7.5#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#57
Freethrows-0.7#219
Improvement-0.7#284

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#29
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#260
Layups/Dunks+4.1#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#73
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement+0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.4% 9.5% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 26.0% 26.1% 8.5%
Top 6 Seed 44.0% 44.2% 19.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.6% 75.8% 48.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.0% 73.2% 46.4%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.2
.500 or above 88.4% 88.6% 62.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 74.6% 52.4%
Conference Champion 12.7% 12.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.6% 3.5%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 5.7%
First Round73.5% 73.7% 45.7%
Second Round52.0% 52.2% 25.9%
Sweet Sixteen25.6% 25.7% 8.5%
Elite Eight11.4% 11.4% 4.4%
Final Four5.1% 5.1% 3.2%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 1.3%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.3%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 27 - 313 - 11
Quad 34 - 117 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 222   Cleveland St. W 101-53 95%     1 - 0 +42.1 +20.0 +19.0
  Nov 10, 2024 75   Wake Forest L 70-72 71%     1 - 1 +5.7 +2.2 +3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 61   TCU W 76-64 77%     2 - 1 +17.8 +4.3 +13.1
  Nov 18, 2024 228   Miami (OH) W 94-67 96%     3 - 1 +20.8 +14.2 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2024 318   Tarleton St. W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 25, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 77-67 83%    
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ Wisconsin L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 41   Iowa W 82-77 68%    
  Dec 10, 2024 25   Arkansas W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 18, 2024 51   Oklahoma W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 22, 2024 139   Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-71 91%    
  Dec 29, 2024 122   Western Kentucky W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 78   @ USC W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 07, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 12, 2025 83   Washington W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 19, 2025 74   Northwestern W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 24, 2025 18   @ Purdue L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 27, 2025 32   Penn St. W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 44   @ Rutgers L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 39   Oregon W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 11, 2025 18   Purdue W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 21   @ Ohio St. L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 21, 2025 35   Michigan St. W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 24, 2025 65   @ Nebraska W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 27, 2025 44   Rutgers W 76-70 70%    
  Mar 02, 2025 31   Illinois W 81-77 63%    
  Mar 05, 2025 30   Maryland W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 09, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 72-73 45%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.7 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 12.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.4 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 2.5 0.3 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.3 0.9 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.1 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.4 0.1 4.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 10.4 11.2 12.2 11.2 10.2 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.3% 1.6    1.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 87.4% 2.9    2.2 0.6 0.1
16-4 66.3% 3.7    2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 34.2% 2.8    0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.6 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 54.9% 45.1% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.3% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.1 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.7 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.1% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.6 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.2% 99.9% 16.8% 83.1% 4.6 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.2% 99.4% 10.4% 89.0% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 12.2% 97.2% 5.9% 91.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.0%
11-9 11.2% 91.6% 3.8% 87.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 91.3%
10-10 10.4% 76.1% 2.6% 73.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 75.4%
9-11 8.5% 43.8% 1.1% 42.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 4.8 43.2%
8-12 6.5% 17.2% 0.9% 16.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.3 16.4%
7-13 4.4% 2.6% 0.4% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 2.3%
6-14 3.0% 3.0
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 75.6% 9.7% 65.9% 5.9 3.6 5.8 7.9 8.6 9.1 8.9 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.9 4.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 24.4 73.0%