Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.6 316
Results Rating -8.4 302
Consistency 0.16 202
Pace 61.7 343
Improvement -2.4 270

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 224 C D C D- C-
Defense F+ 352 D- D- C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 C- 56% 242 -1.5 237
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 120 C- 37% 206 +1.0 126
Three Pointers 39% 225 B- 36% 78 +0.3 169
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 247 C +0.2 159
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 181
Second Chance D- 23.7% 338 C 1.04 166 D 0.25 319
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.2% 155
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 234
Turnovers C 16.8% 188
Freethrows D 0.26 311 F+ 67% 344 D- 0.18 339
Total Offense C- -1.9 224

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 192 D+ 12.9% 300
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 275 D+ 6.5% 278
Three Pointers C+ 86% 152 B 0.4% 72
Total C- 54% 209 D+ 6.6% 293


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 75 D+ 62% 284 +4.0 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 336 D+ 40% 264 -1.6 53
Three Pointers 42% 141 F+ 39% 355 +3.5 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 341 D- +4.7 342
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 343
Second Chance D 33.3% 300 D 1.13 310 D- 0.38 324
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.9% 210
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 193
Turnovers C- 16.1% 218
Freethrows C+ 0.29 166 C 73% 205 C 0.21 162
Total Defense F+ -7.6 352

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 60 D+ 8.1% 295
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 265 D+ 3.5% 261
Three Pointers D 88% 300 C- 0.8% 187
Total C 56% 186 D+ 4.3% 280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.3 343 17.2 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 344 0.17 161
Consistency 0.13 256 0.14 307
Improvement +2.2 83 -4.6 346

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 320 315 308
Results Rating Rank 316 312 283
Conference Record 4 - 14 4 - 14 4 - 14
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 46 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 Drake L 71 - 77 25% -0  37% 0 - 1 D -8 D -6 D+ F A+ C- -3 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 4 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  2% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 D+ D- F B+ +6 C B A
 Mon, Nov 24 227 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 39% +0  54% 1 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 B C- C+ D+ -4 F+ B+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 223 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 39% +7  94% 2 - 2 C +0 C+ +4 C A+ B- C- -3 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 213 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 36% -6  17% 2 - 3 F -19 F -15 F D F D+ -4 B D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 131 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 9% -1  26% 2 - 4 C+ +4 D- -6 C- D- C A +10 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 58 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 3% -12  2% 2 - 5 D- -12 F -18 F F C B +4 C B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 238 @San Diego L 69 - 78 22% -6  5% 2 - 6 D -10 D -5 C C F D -6 D- F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 262 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 47% +0  43% 3 - 6 C -1 F+ -10 F+ C- B- A +10 B- A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 265 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 26% -10  3% 3 - 7 F -27 F -11 B- F F F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 205 @Montana L 64 - 78 17% -4  15% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D+ C+ F F+ -9 F B- C
 Sat, Jan 3 147 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 11% -7  13% 3 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -5 C+ +2 B- D B+ F+ -8 F+ D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 211 Weber St. L 65 - 78 36% -5  8% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F -19 F+ -8 F C B+ F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 266 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 47% -2  39% 3 - 11 0 - 4 D -11 B- +4 D- A+ D F -15 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 273 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 27% -1  50% 3 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -17 D -6 C F D- F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 154 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 12% -5  26% 3 - 13 0 - 6 D+ -8 F -10 C+ F D- C+ +1 C+ D C+
 Mon, Jan 19 205 Montana L 72 - 98 34% -12  6% 3 - 14 0 - 7 F -31 B- +5 A F A- F -40 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 149 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 25% +2  69% 4 - 14 1 - 7 C +2 A +14 A+ B+ C- F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 174 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 29% +12  99% 5 - 14 2 - 7 C+ +2 A+ +19 A- A A+ F -17 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 181 Idaho L 62 - 79 31% -15  0% 5 - 15 2 - 8 F -21 F -12 D+ D+ D F -11 F A D
 Thu, Feb 5 266 @Idaho St. W 79 - 73 26% +4  74% 6 - 15 3 - 8 C+ +3 A +14 A+ F A+ F+ -10 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @Weber St. L 53 - 72 18% -7  27% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -19 F -15 F+ F C D- -8 D F C-
 Thu, Feb 12 154 Portland St. L 68 - 77 25% -1  38% 6 - 17 3 - 10 D- -12 C+ +3 C C+ A+ F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Feb 14 273 Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 48% +10  98% 7 - 17 4 - 10 C- -4 D+ -4 B+ F C C -1 D+ D B+
 Sat, Feb 21 149 @Northern Colorado L 77 - 78 11% -3  9% 7 - 18 4 - 11 C+ +3 B +7 B- C B- D+ -4 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 26 181 @Idaho L 58 - 78 15% -10  1% 7 - 19 4 - 12 F -18 D- -8 D- D+ B- F -14 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 174 @Eastern Washington L 57 - 88 14% -19  0% 7 - 20 4 - 13 F -29 F -14 D- B- F F -18 F F D+
 Mon, Mar 2 147 Montana St. L 65 - 76 24% -11  0% 7 - 21 4 - 14 D- -13 C- -2 C+ D+ C+ F -13 F+ F F
 Sat, Mar 7 266 Idaho St. L 71 - 75 36%
Totals 7 - 22 4 - 14 -10 C- -2 C- C C- F+ -8 B- F+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- B- C 38% 42% 39% C- C D- C D C D F+ D- F+ D+ D+ F+ D- 43% 15% 42% D- D- D D D- C- C+ C C
1.06 56% 37% 36% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .25 17% .26 67% .18 1.20 62% 40% 39% +5 +1 1.14 33% 1.1 .38 16% .29 73% .19
Nov
3		 Drake D F F A+ D- 49% 20% 31% A- D+ C F F A+ F F F C- C F C- D 46% 15% 38% F D- F A+ A+ C F+ D+ F+
1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11 1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Arizona F D+ F C+ D+ 40% 37% 23% C+ D+ B- F D- F F B- F B+ C- A+ F C 34% 18% 48% D+ C B- B B A C+ F+ C-
0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09 1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30
Nov
24		 Cal Poly C+ C- A A B+ 39% 21% 39% C- B C- C+ C- C+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ D+ F+ 43% 2% 55% D- F+ B+ B B+ C A- C- B+
1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27 1.10 65% 0% 36% +4 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19
Nov
26		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ C C C- C 49% 26% 26% C- C D+ A+ A+ B- B- D C C- C A+ A+ A- 59% 7% 34% F B- C- D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31 1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11
Dec
3		 South Dakota St. F C- C+ F F 33% 24% 43% D F F+ B- D F B F D+ D+ B B B B+ 37% 12% 51% D B D+ D- D- C F C- F
0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20 1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31
Dec
6		 North Dakota St. D- A F A- C 34% 38% 28% F C- D F+ D- C F C F A A- D B B 27% 37% 37% A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ F+ A+ C-
0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10 0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20
Dec
9		 Arizona St. F A F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F C F A+ D B F A+ C+ C- 38% 25% 38% B C C A B+ A F+ A C-
0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17 1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29
Dec
13		 San Diego D A+ D+ B B- 26% 34% 40% F C C- B- C F F+ A+ C- D D- B F F+ 33% 20% 47% C- D- D F F B+ F C- F
1.04 75% 38% 37% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 26% .28 86% .24 1.17 67% 33% 43% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.7 .54 21% .46 75% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Utah F+ F+ D- A+ F+ 51% 31% 18% C- F+ D- B+ C- B- B F+ C+ A A B F B+ 54% 21% 25% D- B- A- A+ A A- C+ B+ B-
1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19 0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16
Dec
21		 Incarnate Word F C+ F A+ B 41% 22% 37% D+ B- F F F F B- F F F C C F F 34% 15% 51% D- F F D F F F B F
0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19 1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33
Jan
1		 Montana D F+ C C D+ 34% 28% 38% D D+ C B C+ F C B- C+ F+ F A F F 39% 14% 47% D+ F C+ B- B- C B- F C-
0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21 1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23
Jan
3		 Montana St. C+ C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 42% 21% F B- D D D B+ D- F F F+ A F F D- 29% 13% 58% F+ F+ F+ C- D- D- C F F+
1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13 1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24
Jan
8		 Weber St. F+ C- C+ F F 43% 11% 47% B F D A+ C B+ C- F D F B+ A F D+ 44% 7% 48% D- D D+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20 1.24 50% 25% 42% +1 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05
Jan
10		 Idaho St. B- D+ F F F 60% 14% 26% A D- A- A+ A+ D A+ C A+ F F F C- F 41% 20% 39% B- F F C- F A F F+ F
1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38 1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34
Jan
15		 Sacramento St. D D- A+ C+ C 48% 17% 35% C C C- F F D- F B+ D- F A+ C- F D 37% 21% 42% D D C- F F F C F D
1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19 1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30
Jan
17		 Portland St. F F+ C A B- 40% 26% 35% D+ C+ F F F D- D F F+ C+ B A+ C+ B 47% 9% 45% F C+ F+ C+ D C+ F A- D
0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21 1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24
Jan
19		 Montana B- A+ F B A- 40% 4% 56% A+ A F F F A- C F D+ F F F F F 45% 10% 45% F F F F F F C D- C-
1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18 1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24
Jan
24		 Northern Colorado A A+ C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F A+ F A+ B+ C- B- D+ C+ F D D+ F F 26% 26% 48% A+ F F B+ F A+ A F B+
1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26 1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13
Jan
29		 Eastern Washington A+ F A- A+ B+ 55% 8% 37% A A- D- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ F B A+ F C- 51% 10% 39% F D+ F B+ F C F D- F
1.42 48% 50% 56% +7 +3 1.22 27% 2.0 .54 8% .47 93% .43 1.33 52% 20% 47% +3 +2 1.12 49% 1.0 .49 19% .53 79% .42
Jan
31		 Idaho F D B+ D D+ 40% 27% 33% C D+ D- B- D+ D D+ F F+ F F F+ D F 43% 13% 44% D F A+ C A D A+ F+ A
0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20 1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho St. A A A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 40% C- A+ F A+ F A+ D- D D- F+ F B C+ F+ 52% 7% 41% F F A F F F C C C
1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20 1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23
Feb
7		 Weber St. F D+ F C D- 27% 25% 48% F F+ D- F F C B- F D D- B- F D D+ 56% 7% 37% F D F D- F C- F B- F
0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20 1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36
Feb
12		 Portland St. C+ C A+ F C 32% 16% 52% C C D A+ C+ A+ F+ A D F F F C+ F 61% 16% 24% F F A+ F F B- F F F
1.08 56% 75% 23% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.4 .32 11% .28 81% .23 1.22 70% 50% 33% +9 +2 1.24 20% 2.0 .40 21% .54 81% .44
Feb
14		 Sacramento St. D+ A A+ D- B+ 39% 9% 52% C+ B+ F+ F F C A+ F A+ C F F+ A+ C 45% 14% 41% F D+ D- C+ D B+ F C F
1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36 1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34
Feb
21		 Northern Colorado B C- F A B- 49% 16% 35% B- B- C C C B- A+ D+ A+ D+ D A A B- 55% 15% 30% F C+ C+ F F D F C+ F
1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34 1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28
Feb
26		 Idaho D- F D+ B D- 35% 33% 33% D D- F A+ D+ B- F+ C- F+ F A- A F F 40% 17% 43% C- F D F F D- A- A+ A+
0.96 41% 38% 38% -4 -2 0.90 17% 1.3 .23 13% .28 73% .21 1.29 47% 25% 60% +10 +1 1.23 32% 1.4 .45 13% .21 55% .11
Feb
28		 Eastern Washington F F+ F C+ D- 33% 21% 47% D- D- F A+ B- F F F F F F F F F 47% 14% 39% F F F F F D+ A A+ A+
0.90 50% 33% 35% -3 0 0.95 19% 2.2 .42 27% .17 38% .06 1.39 70% 57% 53% +19 +1 1.43 39% 1.3 .52 17% .21 55% .11
Mar
2		 Montana St. C- F A+ B- B 35% 25% 39% D- C+ D+ C+ D+ C+ F C- F F F C- D F+ 23% 15% 62% D F+ C+ F F F C+ A+ B
1.07 39% 69% 35% +2 -1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 15% .15 75% .12 1.25 73% 43% 38% +8 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .43 11% .24 62% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 100.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.2 99.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.4%
Lose Out 64.4%