IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.1	#19
Expected Predictive Rating	+1.4	#108

Pace	85.0	#2
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+9.9	#14

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.2	#34

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	1.9%	3.5%	1.1%
#1 Seed	8.3%	14.8%	5.5%
Top 2 Seed	18.6%	30.8%	13.3%
Top 4 Seed	40.4%	57.4%	32.9%
Top 6 Seed	56.5%	73.5%	49.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	76.4%	89.2%	70.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	74.1%	87.7%	68.4%
Average Seed	4.8	4.1	5.3

.500 or above	79.2%	91.1%	74.0%
.500 or above in Conference	71.8%	81.4%	67.6%
Conference Champion	11.2%	16.5%	8.9%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	1.1%	3.0%

First Four	5.4%	3.8%	6.1%
First Round	74.2%	87.8%	68.3%
Second Round	60.2%	75.3%	53.5%
Sweet Sixteen	33.7%	45.8%	28.4%
Elite Eight	16.2%	23.7%	12.8%
Final Four	7.4%	11.2%	5.8%
Championship Game	3.2%	5.4%	2.2%
National Champion	1.5%	2.8%	0.9%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 8	4 - 8
Quad 1b	4 - 3	8 - 10
Quad 2	5 - 2	14 - 12
Quad 3	4 - 0	17 - 12
Quad 4	2 - 0	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	316	North Dakota	W	91-62	99%	1 - 0			+17.4	+6.6	+9.3
Nov 08, 2025	11	@ St. John's	L	83-88	31%
Nov 13, 2025	2	Purdue	L	79-83	35%
Nov 19, 2025	10	Illinois	L	87-89	42%
Nov 24, 2025	14	Gonzaga	L	86-87	45%
Nov 26, 2025	96	UNLV	W	84-73	83%
Dec 03, 2025	41	Clemson	W	79-72	72%
Dec 07, 2025	172	Texas San Antonio	W	95-75	96%
Dec 12, 2025	9	Arizona	L	85-87	41%
Dec 17, 2025	81	South Florida	W	90-77	86%
Dec 21, 2025	143	Kennesaw St.	W	93-78	91%
Dec 29, 2025	91	Yale	W	89-75	88%
Jan 03, 2026	7	Kentucky	W	87-86	52%
Jan 06, 2026	31	@ Vanderbilt	L	85-86	48%
Jan 10, 2026	38	Texas	W	84-78	70%
Jan 13, 2026	32	@ Mississippi St.	L	82-83	50%
Jan 17, 2026	48	@ Oklahoma	W	85-83	56%
Jan 24, 2026	17	Tennessee	W	76-73	59%
Jan 27, 2026	37	Missouri	W	87-81	70%
Feb 01, 2026	6	@ Florida	L	83-90	29%
Feb 03, 2026	40	Texas A&M	W	83-76	71%
Feb 07, 2026	35	@ Auburn	W	84-83	51%
Feb 11, 2026	30	@ Mississippi	L	81-82	48%
Feb 14, 2026	77	South Carolina	W	84-72	84%
Feb 17, 2026	15	Arkansas	W	86-84	57%
Feb 21, 2026	56	@ LSU	W	84-80	62%
Feb 25, 2026	32	Mississippi St.	W	86-80	69%
Feb 28, 2026	17	@ Tennessee	L	73-76	39%
Mar 03, 2026	39	@ Georgia	W	82-81	51%
Mar 07, 2026	35	Auburn	W	87-81	69%
Projected Record						18 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.9	2.9	3.2	2.6	1.2	0.4		11.2	1st
2nd												0.1	1.4	3.6	3.5	1.7	0.3				10.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.0	4.0	3.6	1.1	0.1					9.8	3rd
4th											0.6	3.5	3.8	1.0	0.1						8.9	4th
5th										0.2	2.4	4.5	1.6	0.1							8.7	5th
6th									0.0	1.1	4.3	2.1	0.1								7.7	6th
7th									0.3	3.3	3.5	0.5	0.0								7.5	7th
8th								0.1	1.6	3.9	1.0	0.0									6.6	8th
9th							0.0	0.5	3.3	2.0	0.2										6.0	9th
10th							0.1	1.7	2.8	0.4	0.0										5.0	10th
11th						0.1	0.8	2.6	1.0	0.0											4.6	11th
12th					0.0	0.4	1.8	1.6	0.2												4.0	12th
13th				0.0	0.2	1.2	1.5	0.3	0.0												3.2	13th
14th			0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	0.6	0.0													2.8	14th
15th		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.5	0.1														2.1	15th
16th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1															1.2	16th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	2.1	3.5	5.0	6.8	9.2	10.9	11.9	11.7	11.1	9.2	7.5	5.1	2.9	1.2	0.4			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	100.0%	1.2		1.2	0.1
16-2	88.1%	2.6		2.1	0.4	0.0
15-3	63.8%	3.2		1.9	1.2	0.2	0.0
14-4	38.1%	2.9		0.9	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.4%	0.9		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.2%	11.2		6.5	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		100.0%	50.0%	50.0%	1.1		0.3	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	1.2%		100.0%	41.7%	58.3%	1.3		0.9	0.3	0.0																100.0%
16-2	2.9%		100.0%	36.3%	63.7%	1.4		1.8	0.9	0.2	0.0															100.0%
15-3	5.1%		100.0%	25.2%	74.8%	1.8		2.2	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
14-4	7.5%		100.0%	21.5%	78.5%	2.4		1.7	2.7	2.0	0.9	0.2	0.0													100.0%
13-5	9.2%		100.0%	16.0%	84.0%	3.0		0.9	2.3	3.0	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0		0.0									100.0%
12-6	11.1%		99.9%	11.1%	88.8%	3.9		0.4	1.4	2.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.9%
11-7	11.7%		98.9%	6.8%	92.1%	5.0		0.1	0.5	1.7	2.7	2.9	1.8	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1						0.1		98.8%
10-8	11.9%		95.5%	3.1%	92.3%	6.4		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.1	2.3	1.8	1.1	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.0					0.5		95.3%
9-9	10.9%		82.3%	2.3%	80.0%	7.7				0.1	0.4	1.0	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.1	1.1	1.1	0.1					1.9		81.9%
8-10	9.2%		53.6%	1.6%	52.1%	9.1			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.0				4.3		52.9%
7-11	6.8%		26.0%	0.7%	25.4%	10.0					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0		0.0		5.1		25.6%
6-12	5.0%		9.0%	0.1%	8.9%	10.4							0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0					4.5		8.9%
5-13	3.5%		1.2%		1.2%	10.8										0.0		0.0						3.4		1.2%
4-14	2.1%																							2.1
3-15	1.1%																							1.1
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		76.4%	8.9%	67.5%	4.8		8.3	10.3	11.2	10.6	9.0	7.1	5.0	3.9	3.3	3.3	3.9	0.4	0.0		0.0		23.6		74.1%