Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#7
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#15
Pace78.8#19
Improvement-1.1#298

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#2
First Shot+8.6#17
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#36
Layup/Dunks+5.8#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#120
Freethrows+3.0#50
Improvement+0.5#105

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot+3.1#88
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#40
Layups/Dunks+2.1#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#66
Freethrows+2.2#74
Improvement-1.6#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.0% 8.9% 3.7%
#1 Seed 22.8% 30.6% 16.6%
Top 2 Seed 44.0% 55.5% 35.1%
Top 4 Seed 72.8% 82.3% 65.4%
Top 6 Seed 84.7% 91.5% 79.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.4% 97.7% 91.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 97.1% 90.7%
Average Seed 3.3 2.8 3.8
.500 or above 96.3% 98.7% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 91.2% 85.4%
Conference Champion 18.9% 23.1% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four2.2% 1.2% 3.1%
First Round93.5% 97.1% 90.8%
Second Round83.1% 89.1% 78.3%
Sweet Sixteen55.5% 62.1% 50.3%
Elite Eight31.6% 37.2% 27.3%
Final Four16.9% 20.6% 14.0%
Championship Game8.9% 11.0% 7.2%
National Champion4.4% 5.7% 3.4%

Next Game: Houston (Neutral) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 9
Quad 26 - 115 - 10
Quad 35 - 020 - 10
Quad 42 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 110-54 97%     1 - 0 +52.2 +27.5 +21.5
  Nov 08, 2024 107   Arkansas St. W 88-79 93%     2 - 0 +10.2 +1.6 +7.0
  Nov 11, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 72-64 91%     3 - 0 +10.7 +4.0 +7.2
  Nov 15, 2024 18   @ Purdue L 78-87 52%     3 - 1 +8.2 +14.2 -6.3
  Nov 20, 2024 31   Illinois W 100-87 69%     4 - 1 +25.7 +18.2 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 4   Houston L 73-75 44%    
  Nov 27, 2024 44   Rutgers W 83-76 75%    
  Dec 04, 2024 8   @ North Carolina L 87-90 40%    
  Dec 14, 2024 17   Creighton W 85-79 72%    
  Dec 18, 2024 253   @ North Dakota W 91-71 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 123   Kent St. W 86-68 95%    
  Dec 29, 2024 153   South Dakota St. W 94-74 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 85-74 85%    
  Jan 08, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 26   @ Texas A&M W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 14, 2025 47   Mississippi W 86-75 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 87-89 42%    
  Jan 21, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 91-77 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 48   LSU W 88-77 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 83-81 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   Georgia W 88-76 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 25   @ Arkansas W 83-82 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 29   @ Texas W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Auburn W 85-84 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 62   @ Missouri W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 10   Kentucky W 90-86 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 86-78 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 79-82 41%    
  Mar 05, 2025 19   Florida W 91-84 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 82-87 34%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.4 5.9 4.5 1.9 0.5 18.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.5 5.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.3 5.3 1.6 0.2 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.0 1.5 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 4.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.1 10.9 13.0 14.5 13.9 11.9 8.3 4.8 1.9 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 1.9    1.9 0.1
16-2 92.9% 4.5    3.7 0.7 0.0
15-3 70.3% 5.9    3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.2% 4.4    1.5 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.3% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 11.4 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.1 1.7 0.2 100.0%
16-2 4.8% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 1.2 3.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.3% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.4 5.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.9% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.7 5.4 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.9% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.2 3.6 5.6 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.5% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 2.8 1.7 4.2 4.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.0% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 3.6 0.5 2.0 4.1 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.9% 99.6% 6.0% 93.6% 4.6 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 8.1% 96.7% 3.4% 93.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.6%
8-10 5.5% 83.4% 2.5% 80.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.9 82.9%
7-11 3.4% 52.8% 1.4% 51.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.6 52.1%
6-12 1.8% 21.9% 0.7% 21.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4 21.4%
5-13 0.9% 5.1% 0.3% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.8%
4-14 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.4 0.7%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.4% 15.8% 78.7% 3.3 22.8 21.3 16.7 12.1 7.3 4.6 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.6 93.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9