Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#20
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#10
Pace70.6#123
Improvement-3.5#327

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#27
First Shot+6.8#33
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks+7.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#64
Freethrows-0.7#229
Improvement-2.8#320

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#18
First Shot+8.6#9
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#239
Layups/Dunks+2.1#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#72
Freethrows+3.6#7
Improvement-0.7#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.9% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 11.2% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 42.1% 45.5% 23.4%
Top 6 Seed 78.2% 80.7% 64.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.7% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.6% 98.8%
Average Seed 4.9 4.8 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 37.4% 40.6% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round99.4% 99.6% 98.5%
Second Round77.1% 78.6% 68.9%
Sweet Sixteen39.7% 41.4% 30.2%
Elite Eight15.8% 16.6% 10.8%
Final Four6.5% 6.9% 4.3%
Championship Game2.4% 2.6% 1.7%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.3%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 27 - 215 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 320   Stony Brook W 102-62 99%     1 - 0 +28.0 +23.1 +5.1
  Nov 08, 2024 86   George Mason W 82-63 86%     2 - 0 +22.8 +10.7 +11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 70-62 97%     3 - 0 +1.6 -7.8 +8.9
  Nov 15, 2024 25   @ Maryland W 78-74 43%     4 - 0 +21.5 +17.0 +4.7
  Nov 19, 2024 10   Purdue W 76-58 53%     5 - 0 +32.9 +11.5 +21.9
  Nov 23, 2024 34   Georgia W 80-69 61%     6 - 0 +23.8 +15.9 +7.8
  Nov 27, 2024 312   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +23.6 +18.1 +6.4
  Nov 30, 2024 342   Western Carolina W 94-62 99%     8 - 0 +17.7 +4.7 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2024 4   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 23%     8 - 1 +12.2 +9.5 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 18   Wisconsin W 88-74 60%     9 - 1 +27.1 +25.3 +2.6
  Dec 14, 2024 78   @ Dayton L 63-71 70%     9 - 2 +2.0 +1.4 -0.5
  Dec 18, 2024 84   Butler W 80-70 86%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +14.0 +16.2 -1.2
  Dec 21, 2024 41   @ Xavier W 72-70 54%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +16.4 +8.0 +8.4
  Dec 31, 2024 81   @ Providence W 78-50 71%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +37.9 +19.2 +22.1
  Jan 03, 2025 33   Creighton W 79-71 70%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +18.2 +9.7 +8.3
  Jan 07, 2025 72   Georgetown W 74-66 84%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +13.0 +4.9 +7.9
  Jan 14, 2025 106   @ DePaul W 85-83 OT 81%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +8.3 +8.0 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2025 41   Xavier L 57-59 74%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +6.9 -7.8 +14.7
  Jan 21, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 24, 2025 42   Villanova W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 28, 2025 84   @ Butler W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 24   Connecticut W 76-73 63%    
  Feb 04, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 33   @ Creighton L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 106   DePaul W 82-67 92%    
  Feb 18, 2025 132   Seton Hall W 76-60 94%    
  Feb 21, 2025 42   @ Villanova W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 81   Providence W 77-66 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 72   @ Georgetown W 73-68 67%    
  Mar 04, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 73-75 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 16   St. John's W 74-72 57%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 7.3 13.2 10.3 4.3 1.0 37.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 8.5 11.5 4.5 0.6 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 6.5 8.0 1.9 0.1 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.7 1.2 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.4 1.9 2.3 0.7 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.6 7.7 13.8 18.9 20.7 17.8 10.8 4.3 1.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 100.0% 4.3    4.2 0.1
17-3 94.8% 10.3    8.9 1.3
16-4 74.5% 13.2    7.6 5.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 35.2% 7.3    2.0 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.3% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.4% 37.4 23.8 10.6 2.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.3% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 2.1 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.8% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 2.9 0.7 3.1 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.8% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 3.7 0.2 1.7 5.6 6.2 3.3 0.8 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.7% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.4 7.0 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 18.9% 99.9% 17.3% 82.6% 5.6 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.7 6.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 13.8% 99.7% 14.7% 85.0% 6.4 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.5 4.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 7.7% 99.2% 10.9% 88.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.1 99.1%
11-9 3.6% 97.0% 8.8% 88.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.7%
10-10 1.0% 91.7% 4.2% 87.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 91.3%
9-11 0.3% 75.0% 7.1% 67.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 73.1%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 22.9% 76.7% 4.9 2.5 7.5 14.4 17.8 19.2 16.9 12.1 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.4 59.1 38.6 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 54.5 45.5