Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#25
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#28
Pace68.5#169
Improvement-5.4#346

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#34
First Shot+6.6#37
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks+7.2#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#61
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement-2.5#294

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#21
First Shot+8.5#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#237
Layups/Dunks+2.0#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#66
Freethrows+3.6#8
Improvement-3.0#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 11.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 26.9% 43.7% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.8% 97.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 99.7% 97.1%
Average Seed 7.2 6.5 8.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round98.7% 99.8% 97.1%
Second Round61.2% 65.7% 54.8%
Sweet Sixteen19.4% 24.1% 12.5%
Elite Eight7.9% 9.3% 6.0%
Final Four2.5% 2.8% 2.1%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 46 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 36 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 324   Stony Brook W 102-62 99%     1 - 0 +27.5 +21.5 +6.2
  Nov 08, 2024 90   George Mason W 82-63 87%     2 - 0 +22.0 +11.6 +9.6
  Nov 11, 2024 218   Central Michigan W 70-62 96%     3 - 0 +2.1 -9.5 +11.2
  Nov 15, 2024 11   @ Maryland W 78-74 29%     4 - 0 +24.9 +20.1 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2024 16   Purdue W 76-58 53%     5 - 0 +32.5 +9.2 +23.8
  Nov 23, 2024 31   Georgia W 80-69 55%     6 - 0 +25.0 +15.1 +9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 330   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +21.5 +16.0 +6.4
  Nov 30, 2024 338   Western Carolina W 94-62 99%     8 - 0 +17.7 +3.3 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2024 10   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 28%     8 - 1 +10.4 +9.8 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2024 15   Wisconsin W 88-74 53%     9 - 1 +28.5 +26.1 +3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 75   @ Dayton L 63-71 69%     9 - 2 +2.2 +1.4 -0.2
  Dec 18, 2024 71   Butler W 80-70 83%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +15.0 +14.9 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2024 39   @ Xavier W 72-70 49%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +17.6 +8.1 +9.5
  Dec 31, 2024 88   @ Providence W 78-50 74%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +36.7 +17.6 +22.5
  Jan 03, 2025 32   Creighton W 79-71 66%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +19.1 +10.0 +9.0
  Jan 07, 2025 81   Georgetown W 74-66 85%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +12.2 +3.6 +8.5
  Jan 14, 2025 116   @ DePaul W 85-83 OT 81%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +7.9 +8.6 -0.9
  Jan 18, 2025 39   Xavier L 57-59 69%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +8.1 -7.7 +15.7
  Jan 21, 2025 166   @ Seton Hall W 76-59 88%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +19.3 +10.4 +9.4
  Jan 24, 2025 45   Villanova W 87-74 74%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +21.7 +16.0 +5.7
  Jan 28, 2025 71   @ Butler W 78-69 68%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +19.5 +12.2 +7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 28   Connecticut L 69-77 64%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +3.8 +3.1 +0.1
  Feb 04, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 64-70 31%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +14.5 +7.5 +6.8
  Feb 08, 2025 32   @ Creighton L 67-77 45%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +6.6 +13.0 -8.0
  Feb 11, 2025 116   DePaul W 68-58 91%     19 - 6 10 - 4 +10.4 -7.1 +17.3
  Feb 18, 2025 166   Seton Hall W 80-56 95%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +20.8 +17.2 +5.9
  Feb 21, 2025 45   @ Villanova L 66-81 54%     20 - 7 11 - 5 -0.8 +9.1 -12.5
  Feb 25, 2025 88   Providence W 82-52 87%     21 - 7 12 - 5 +33.2 +11.9 +22.2
  Mar 01, 2025 81   @ Georgetown W 76-61 71%     22 - 7 13 - 5 +24.7 +12.3 +12.9
  Mar 05, 2025 28   @ Connecticut L 66-72 42%     22 - 8 13 - 6 +11.3 +8.0 +2.4
  Mar 08, 2025 13   St. John's L 84-86 OT 51%     22 - 9 13 - 7 +13.0 +14.2 -1.0
  Mar 13, 2025 39   Xavier W 75-73 60%    
Projected Record 23 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 98.7% 15.2% 83.5% 7.2 0.0 2.0 4.5 8.4 11.9 24.3 30.4 14.3 2.7 0.1 1.3 98.5%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.7% 15.2% 83.5% 7.2 0.0 2.0 4.5 8.4 11.9 24.3 30.4 14.3 2.7 0.1 1.3 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.2% 100.0% 4.7 0.1 12.8 26.7 37.4 19.4 3.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.6% 100.0% 6.6 0.3 2.0 11.5 28.7 40.5 15.3 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 32.3% 99.6% 7.2 0.0 0.7 4.0 14.6 40.2 33.0 6.8 0.3
Lose Out 40.9% 97.1% 8.2 0.3 2.3 14.8 43.9 29.2 6.3 0.3