Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+22.8#3
Pace71.3#115
Improvement+1.2#65

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#31
First Shot+7.8#21
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#230
Layup/Dunks+4.7#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#103
Freethrows+3.8#34
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#11
First Shot+5.4#42
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#54
Layups/Dunks+3.3#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#260
Freethrows+4.2#20
Improvement+1.4#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.5%
#1 Seed 7.4% 9.1% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 18.2% 21.6% 10.5%
Top 4 Seed 44.6% 50.4% 31.4%
Top 6 Seed 67.3% 73.2% 54.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.5% 95.1% 86.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.2% 94.2% 84.8%
Average Seed 5.0 4.7 5.7
.500 or above 97.9% 99.0% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 91.2% 84.3%
Conference Champion 15.8% 17.8% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four2.8% 2.1% 4.3%
First Round91.1% 94.1% 84.2%
Second Round68.6% 72.8% 59.1%
Sweet Sixteen36.6% 40.2% 28.5%
Elite Eight16.6% 18.5% 12.3%
Final Four7.3% 8.3% 5.0%
Championship Game3.0% 3.6% 1.7%
National Champion1.3% 1.6% 0.6%

Next Game: Georgia (Neutral) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 27 - 214 - 9
Quad 36 - 120 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 302   Stony Brook W 102-62 98%     1 - 0 +29.5 +23.9 +5.9
  Nov 08, 2024 92   George Mason W 82-63 87%     2 - 0 +21.6 +7.8 +13.0
  Nov 11, 2024 204   Central Michigan W 70-62 96%     3 - 0 +2.9 -6.9 +9.3
  Nov 15, 2024 30   @ Maryland W 78-74 46%     4 - 0 +19.8 +17.6 +2.4
  Nov 19, 2024 18   Purdue W 76-58 63%     5 - 0 +29.2 +8.7 +21.0
  Nov 23, 2024 54   Georgia W 77-72 70%    
  Nov 27, 2024 343   Stonehill W 85-55 99.7%   
  Nov 30, 2024 258   Western Carolina W 82-59 98%    
  Dec 04, 2024 12   @ Iowa St. L 68-73 34%    
  Dec 07, 2024 37   Wisconsin W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 14, 2024 60   @ Dayton W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 18, 2024 85   Butler W 79-68 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 36   @ Xavier W 76-75 50%    
  Dec 31, 2024 77   @ Providence W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 03, 2025 17   Creighton W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 07, 2025 116   Georgetown W 80-66 90%    
  Jan 14, 2025 110   @ DePaul W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 36   Xavier W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 69   Villanova W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 28, 2025 85   @ Butler W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 2   Connecticut L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 04, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 17   @ Creighton L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 11, 2025 110   DePaul W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 18, 2025 88   Seton Hall W 69-57 85%    
  Feb 21, 2025 69   @ Villanova W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 77   Providence W 72-62 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 116   @ Georgetown W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 04, 2025 2   @ Connecticut L 66-75 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 16   St. John's W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.8 4.5 3.2 1.2 0.3 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.7 7.4 5.4 2.1 0.3 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 6.7 6.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.8 7.1 9.6 11.7 13.5 13.6 12.3 9.7 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.1
18-2 91.1% 3.2    2.7 0.5
17-3 68.3% 4.5    3.0 1.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 39.0% 3.8    1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.8% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 4.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.7 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 52.1% 47.9% 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.5% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.6% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.0 2.2 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.6 1.4 3.2 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.3% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 3.4 0.6 2.1 4.0 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.6% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 4.3 0.2 0.9 2.8 4.0 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.5% 99.7% 10.8% 88.9% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 3.6 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 11.7% 98.8% 8.5% 90.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.7%
11-9 9.6% 96.6% 6.3% 90.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.3%
10-10 7.1% 89.1% 3.2% 85.9% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 88.8%
9-11 4.8% 68.2% 1.7% 66.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 67.6%
8-12 3.0% 36.3% 1.2% 35.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.9 35.5%
7-13 1.7% 13.1% 0.9% 12.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 12.3%
6-14 0.8% 2.4% 0.9% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5%
5-15 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.5% 14.0% 78.4% 5.0 7.4 10.8 13.2 13.1 12.1 10.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 3.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.5 91.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3