Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#25
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#29
Pace68.4#172
Improvement-5.5#345

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#34
First Shot+6.7#37
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks+7.2#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#61
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement-2.4#293

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#20
First Shot+8.5#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#239
Layups/Dunks+2.0#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#68
Freethrows+3.6#8
Improvement-3.1#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.5% 12.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 31.2% 50.0% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.8% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.7% 98.5%
Average Seed 7.0 6.3 8.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.3% 99.8% 98.5%
Second Round63.4% 67.5% 57.2%
Sweet Sixteen20.8% 25.2% 14.2%
Elite Eight7.7% 8.8% 6.1%
Final Four2.7% 3.1% 2.1%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 46 - 8
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 324   Stony Brook W 102-62 99%     1 - 0 +27.5 +21.5 +6.3
  Nov 08, 2024 89   George Mason W 82-63 87%     2 - 0 +22.0 +11.6 +9.6
  Nov 11, 2024 219   Central Michigan W 70-62 96%     3 - 0 +2.1 -9.6 +11.3
  Nov 15, 2024 11   @ Maryland W 78-74 29%     4 - 0 +25.0 +20.1 +5.0
  Nov 19, 2024 16   Purdue W 76-58 53%     5 - 0 +32.5 +9.2 +23.8
  Nov 23, 2024 33   Georgia W 80-69 56%     6 - 0 +24.7 +14.7 +10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 331   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +21.6 +16.0 +6.5
  Nov 30, 2024 339   Western Carolina W 94-62 99%     8 - 0 +17.5 +3.3 +10.1
  Dec 04, 2024 9   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 26%     8 - 1 +10.9 +10.0 +0.9
  Dec 07, 2024 15   Wisconsin W 88-74 53%     9 - 1 +28.6 +26.1 +3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 74   @ Dayton L 63-71 69%     9 - 2 +2.3 +1.4 -0.2
  Dec 18, 2024 72   Butler W 80-70 83%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +15.2 +15.1 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2024 40   @ Xavier W 72-70 49%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +17.6 +8.1 +9.5
  Dec 31, 2024 91   @ Providence W 78-50 75%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +36.4 +17.5 +22.3
  Jan 03, 2025 32   Creighton W 79-71 66%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +19.1 +9.9 +9.1
  Jan 07, 2025 83   Georgetown W 74-66 86%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +11.8 +3.5 +8.2
  Jan 14, 2025 113   @ DePaul W 85-83 OT 81%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +8.2 +8.9 -0.8
  Jan 18, 2025 40   Xavier L 57-59 70%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +8.1 -7.8 +15.7
  Jan 21, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 76-59 89%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +19.2 +10.5 +9.2
  Jan 24, 2025 44   Villanova W 87-74 74%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +21.7 +16.1 +5.6
  Jan 28, 2025 72   @ Butler W 78-69 67%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +19.7 +12.4 +7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 28   Connecticut L 69-77 64%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +3.7 +3.0 +0.2
  Feb 04, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 64-70 31%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +14.6 +7.5 +6.8
  Feb 08, 2025 32   @ Creighton L 67-77 45%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +6.6 +13.0 -7.9
  Feb 11, 2025 113   DePaul W 68-58 91%     19 - 6 10 - 4 +10.7 -6.9 +17.3
  Feb 18, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 80-56 95%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +20.7 +17.4 +5.7
  Feb 21, 2025 44   @ Villanova L 66-81 54%     20 - 7 11 - 5 -0.8 +9.2 -12.6
  Feb 25, 2025 91   Providence W 82-52 87%     21 - 7 12 - 5 +32.9 +11.9 +22.0
  Mar 01, 2025 83   @ Georgetown W 76-61 72%     22 - 7 13 - 5 +24.3 +12.2 +12.6
  Mar 05, 2025 28   @ Connecticut L 66-72 43%     22 - 8 13 - 6 +11.2 +7.9 +2.5
  Mar 08, 2025 13   St. John's L 84-86 OT 51%     22 - 9 13 - 7 +13.1 +14.2 -0.9
  Mar 13, 2025 40   Xavier W 75-72 60%    
Projected Record 23 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 99.3% 15.8% 83.5% 7.0 0.0 2.2 5.3 9.7 14.1 24.7 30.4 11.7 1.3 0.0 0.7 99.1%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.3% 15.8% 83.5% 7.0 0.0 2.2 5.3 9.7 14.1 24.7 30.4 11.7 1.3 0.0 0.7 99.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.8% 100.0% 4.6 0.3 13.5 30.8 35.5 18.0 1.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.8% 99.9% 6.5 0.4 2.4 14.0 31.8 36.7 14.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 32.3% 99.6% 7.0 0.1 0.4 6.9 19.7 39.4 29.4 3.8 0.0
Lose Out 40.1% 98.5% 8.1 0.4 2.7 18.2 47.8 26.0 3.3 0.0