Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#81
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#48
Pace55.6#363
Improvement-2.0#275

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#100
First Shot+3.1#91
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#210
Layup/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#255
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement-0.4#203

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#70
First Shot+3.6#70
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#133
Layups/Dunks-3.2#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#3
Freethrows-2.4#329
Improvement-1.6#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 32.3% 25.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.2% 97.0%
Conference Champion 46.6% 50.9% 28.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
First Round30.5% 31.8% 25.4%
Second Round7.0% 7.2% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 24 - 24 - 2
Quad 39 - 414 - 6
Quad 410 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 242   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 90%     1 - 0 +7.7 +5.5 +4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 182   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 84%     2 - 0 -2.0 -5.5 +3.8
  Nov 21, 2024 121   Miami (FL) W 80-69 66%     3 - 0 +13.5 +15.0 +0.0
  Nov 22, 2024 97   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 58%     4 - 0 +16.7 +7.4 +10.0
  Nov 24, 2024 52   Vanderbilt W 81-70 36%     5 - 0 +21.5 +11.3 +10.0
  Nov 30, 2024 285   Georgia Southern W 61-47 93%     6 - 0 +4.2 -10.3 +15.8
  Dec 05, 2024 206   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 73%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +6.5 +2.2 +5.3
  Dec 17, 2024 93   @ Kansas St. W 73-70 OT 43%     8 - 0 +11.5 +9.1 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 330   Green Bay W 72-62 96%     9 - 0 -3.4 +6.8 -8.1
  Dec 29, 2024 135   Belmont W 65-46 79%     10 - 0 2 - 0 +17.5 +1.8 +19.4
  Jan 01, 2025 153   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 62%     10 - 1 2 - 1 -0.3 +11.0 -12.1
  Jan 05, 2025 126   Murray St. L 59-66 76%     10 - 2 2 - 2 -7.6 -2.4 -6.6
  Jan 08, 2025 95   @ Bradley W 64-57 45%     11 - 2 3 - 2 +15.2 +4.3 +11.8
  Jan 11, 2025 254   Evansville W 63-40 91%     12 - 2 4 - 2 +14.8 +5.1 +15.0
  Jan 15, 2025 145   Illinois St. W 68-59 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 175   @ Indiana St. W 73-69 67%    
  Jan 22, 2025 206   Valparaiso W 71-59 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 226   @ Missouri St. W 65-57 76%    
  Jan 29, 2025 105   Northern Iowa W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 237   Southern Illinois W 71-57 90%    
  Feb 04, 2025 126   @ Murray St. W 62-60 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Indiana St. W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 12, 2025 145   @ Illinois St. W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 95   Bradley W 65-60 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 153   Illinois-Chicago W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 23, 2025 105   @ Northern Iowa L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 254   @ Evansville W 64-55 79%    
  Mar 02, 2025 226   Missouri St. W 67-54 89%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.1 13.5 15.5 9.0 2.5 46.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.4 10.7 6.9 1.8 0.2 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.2 6.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 4.7 8.8 14.4 19.3 20.8 17.3 9.3 2.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.5    2.5 0.0
17-3 97.5% 9.0    8.3 0.7
16-4 89.5% 15.5    11.8 3.5 0.2
15-5 65.2% 13.5    7.2 5.1 1.2 0.0
14-6 26.3% 5.1    1.3 2.2 1.4 0.3
13-7 6.5% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.6% 46.6 31.1 11.7 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.5% 58.1% 47.9% 10.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 19.5%
17-3 9.3% 48.4% 44.7% 3.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.2 0.8 4.8 6.8%
16-4 17.3% 38.8% 38.0% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 3.7 2.9 0.0 10.6 1.2%
15-5 20.8% 32.6% 32.0% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 2.0 4.6 0.1 14.0 0.8%
14-6 19.3% 30.1% 30.0% 0.1% 11.8 1.2 4.3 0.3 13.5 0.2%
13-7 14.4% 23.5% 23.5% 11.9 0.5 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.0
12-8 8.8% 16.8% 16.8% 12.2 0.0 1.2 0.3 7.3
11-9 4.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.0
10-10 1.8% 8.3% 8.3% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
9-11 0.9% 3.6% 3.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
8-12 0.3% 8.2% 8.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.0% 30.1% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 11.0 17.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 69.0 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 9.1 2.0 3.5 7.4 7.9 12.9 13.4 25.2 25.5 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 23.5% 10.6 0.5 8.2 14.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 16.8% 10.5 7.7 9.1