Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#80
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#10
Pace59.9#357
Improvement+1.5#61

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#84
First Shot+4.4#62
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#221
Layup/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#132
Freethrows+3.7#27
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#80
First Shot+3.0#91
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#139
Layups/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#28
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+1.5#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 4.1% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 40.2% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.3% 12.0% 4.0%
Average Seed 10.6 10.2 11.2
.500 or above 98.1% 99.5% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 97.1% 93.9%
Conference Champion 43.0% 49.8% 37.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.9% 4.4% 1.8%
First Round31.6% 37.9% 26.7%
Second Round10.7% 14.4% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 4.0% 2.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Neutral) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 24 - 4
Quad 38 - 312 - 7
Quad 410 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 201   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 87%     1 - 0 +10.1 +5.3 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2024 187   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 86%     2 - 0 -2.3 -4.1 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2024 63   Miami (FL) W 80-69 44%     3 - 0 +19.7 +18.4 +2.8
  Nov 22, 2024 78   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 49%     4 - 0 +19.4 +8.6 +11.5
  Nov 24, 2024 62   Vanderbilt L 70-72 44%    
  Nov 30, 2024 219   Georgia Southern W 80-67 89%    
  Dec 04, 2024 266   @ Valparaiso W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 17, 2024 58   @ Kansas St. L 63-68 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 277   Green Bay W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 29, 2024 138   Belmont W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 01, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 05, 2025 115   Murray St. W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 274   Evansville W 76-60 93%    
  Jan 15, 2025 177   Illinois St. W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 164   @ Indiana St. W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 266   Valparaiso W 75-59 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 139   Southern Illinois W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 04, 2025 115   @ Murray St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 164   Indiana St. W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 12, 2025 177   @ Illinois St. W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 16, 2025 92   Bradley W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 19, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 23, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 274   @ Evansville W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 71-60 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.0 9.4 10.9 8.0 4.8 1.3 43.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.0 6.8 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.9 5.6 8.3 10.5 12.9 14.2 13.5 12.1 8.1 4.8 1.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 99.9% 4.8    4.8 0.0
18-2 98.2% 8.0    7.5 0.4
17-3 89.9% 10.9    9.1 1.8 0.0
16-4 69.6% 9.4    6.0 3.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 42.0% 6.0    2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1
14-6 17.2% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.0% 43.0 32.1 8.7 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 93.5% 63.4% 30.2% 5.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 82.4%
19-1 4.8% 82.8% 55.8% 27.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.8 61.2%
18-2 8.1% 67.9% 50.3% 17.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 35.3%
17-3 12.1% 51.6% 40.9% 10.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.5 1.5 0.0 5.9 18.1%
16-4 13.5% 40.0% 35.8% 4.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 2.4 0.1 8.1 6.6%
15-5 14.2% 29.2% 27.9% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.2 0.0 10.1 1.8%
14-6 12.9% 22.2% 21.8% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.0 0.6%
13-7 10.5% 17.4% 17.3% 0.2% 12.1 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.7 0.2%
12-8 8.3% 13.0% 13.0% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.3
11-9 5.6% 8.5% 8.5% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.1
10-10 3.9% 6.3% 6.3% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
9-11 2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
8-12 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.2% 27.9% 5.3% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.8 3.0 10.8 11.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 66.8 7.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.6 12.1 19.0 13.8 26.7 17.2 6.9 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.2 8.0 24.0 36.0 8.0 16.0 8.0