Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#74
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#44
Pace53.9#364
Improvement-0.8#223

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#75
First Shot+4.5#68
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#245
Freethrows+3.2#28
Improvement+1.8#99

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#83
First Shot+2.9#80
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#140
Layups/Dunks-3.6#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#3
Freethrows-2.6#339
Improvement-2.6#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.5% 45.8% 37.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 6.1% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 94.6% 100.0% 89.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 3.3% 0.9%
First Round40.2% 43.8% 36.6%
Second Round8.5% 9.9% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 0
Quad 24 - 16 - 1
Quad 310 - 316 - 4
Quad 410 - 026 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 91%     1 - 0 +7.6 +3.7 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 86%     2 - 0 -1.6 -5.9 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 152   Miami (FL) W 80-69 75%     3 - 0 +11.6 +13.8 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 105   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 64%     4 - 0 +16.1 +6.4 +10.5
  Nov 24, 2024 53   Vanderbilt W 81-70 39%     5 - 0 +21.6 +10.7 +10.8
  Nov 30, 2024 248   Georgia Southern W 61-47 91%     6 - 0 +6.6 -9.9 +17.8
  Dec 05, 2024 238   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 81%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +4.4 +0.5 +4.7
  Dec 17, 2024 56   @ Kansas St. W 73-70 OT 30%     8 - 0 +16.1 +11.7 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 337   Green Bay W 72-62 97%     9 - 0 -4.0 +7.0 -8.9
  Dec 29, 2024 140   Belmont W 65-46 81%     10 - 0 2 - 0 +17.6 +0.1 +21.3
  Jan 01, 2025 147   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 67%     10 - 1 2 - 1 -0.7 +10.9 -12.4
  Jan 05, 2025 156   Murray St. L 59-66 82%     10 - 2 2 - 2 -9.1 -2.4 -8.0
  Jan 08, 2025 94   @ Bradley W 64-57 50%     11 - 2 3 - 2 +14.7 +3.2 +12.5
  Jan 11, 2025 237   Evansville W 63-40 90%     12 - 2 4 - 2 +16.4 +4.0 +17.7
  Jan 15, 2025 127   Illinois St. W 66-62 79%     13 - 2 5 - 2 +3.2 +11.2 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 203   @ Indiana St. W 71-53 76%     14 - 2 6 - 2 +18.3 +3.2 +16.8
  Jan 22, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 81-71 91%     15 - 2 7 - 2 +3.3 +12.0 -7.6
  Jan 25, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. W 69-62 OT 79%     16 - 2 8 - 2 +6.4 +8.4 -1.0
  Jan 29, 2025 100   Northern Iowa W 66-52 71%     17 - 2 9 - 2 +16.1 +10.9 +8.7
  Feb 01, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois W 75-65 72%     18 - 2 10 - 2 +11.5 +14.5 -1.6
  Feb 04, 2025 156   @ Murray St. W 55-45 68%     19 - 2 11 - 2 +13.0 +8.2 +9.2
  Feb 08, 2025 203   Indiana St. W 85-81 OT 88%     20 - 2 12 - 2 -0.8 +3.7 -4.7
  Feb 12, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. W 84-77 63%     21 - 2 13 - 2 +11.3 +15.6 -3.7
  Feb 16, 2025 94   Bradley L 59-61 69%     21 - 3 13 - 3 +0.6 +1.0 -0.9
  Feb 19, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago W 74-57 82%     22 - 3 14 - 3 +15.2 +14.0 +4.5
  Feb 23, 2025 100   @ Northern Iowa W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 237   @ Evansville W 66-57 79%    
  Mar 02, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 67-54 91%    
Projected Record 24 - 4 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 10.2 47.5 36.8 94.6 1st
2nd 0.9 4.2 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.3 14.4 47.5 36.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 36.8    36.8
16-4 100.0% 47.5    37.5 10.0
15-5 70.9% 10.2    1.2 5.4 3.6
14-6 6.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 94.6% 94.6 75.5 15.4 3.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 36.8% 48.3% 43.8% 4.5% 11.1 0.1 1.5 12.0 4.1 19.0 7.9%
16-4 47.5% 38.9% 37.7% 1.2% 11.5 0.1 8.5 9.8 0.0 29.0 1.9%
15-5 14.4% 33.8% 33.5% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 1.4 3.4 0.1 9.5 0.3%
14-6 1.3% 28.0% 28.0% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.5% 39.2% 2.2% 11.4 0.1 1.7 22.0 17.5 0.1 58.5 3.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.1% 100.0% 11.1 0.8 9.2 65.6 24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.6% 10.5% 11.1 0.3 8.9 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.2% 7.1% 11.0 0.4 6.3 0.4
Lose Out 0.3%