Richmond
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#198
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#303
Pace66.9#256
Improvement+1.1#84

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#261
First Shot-1.6#224
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#261
Layup/Dunks-2.1#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#287
Freethrows+6.5#7
Improvement+0.9#80

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#129
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#238
Layups/Dunks+6.2#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#216
Freethrows-3.6#340
Improvement+0.2#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.3% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 12.7% 25.6% 9.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.7% 27.1% 16.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 24.7% 16.9% 26.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Neutral) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 85 - 16
Quad 46 - 311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 231   Marist L 72-79 67%     0 - 1 -13.5 -1.7 -12.1
  Nov 13, 2024 131   @ Charlotte L 48-65 26%     0 - 2 -12.1 -18.4 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 229   @ Bucknell L 76-80 2OT 44%     0 - 3 -4.3 -8.8 +5.2
  Nov 20, 2024 236   Maine W 70-66 68%     1 - 3 -2.7 -0.8 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 89   Louisiana Tech L 63-71 22%    
  Nov 27, 2024 275   Ball St. W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 08, 2024 6   @ Auburn L 61-85 1%    
  Dec 14, 2024 138   Belmont L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 18, 2024 222   @ William & Mary L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 21, 2024 349   VMI W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 28, 2024 187   Florida Gulf Coast W 65-63 59%    
  Dec 31, 2024 149   George Washington W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 126   @ Massachusetts L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 08, 2025 96   @ George Mason L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 109   Rhode Island L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 108   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-71 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 124   Saint Louis L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   Davidson L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 149   @ George Washington L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 65   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-73 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 214   Duquesne W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   @ Davidson L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 11, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 171   Fordham W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 148   @ La Salle L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 94   @ Saint Joseph's L 64-75 18%    
  Feb 25, 2025 65   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-70 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 57   @ Dayton L 59-73 12%    
  Mar 08, 2025 96   George Mason L 65-69 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.1 4th
5th 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.2 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.1 1.3 0.0 10.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.8 2.4 0.2 12.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.7 3.2 0.5 14.9 14th
15th 0.7 2.7 4.6 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 15.7 15th
Total 0.7 2.8 6.0 9.6 12.2 14.0 13.7 12.4 10.0 7.5 5.1 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0
15-3 83.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 53.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 25.4% 25.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 6.9% 6.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 0.8% 11.3% 11.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.7% 10.0% 10.0% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-7 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
10-8 5.1% 1.7% 1.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
9-9 7.5% 1.1% 1.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-10 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
7-11 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
6-12 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-14 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-15 9.6% 9.6
2-16 6.0% 6.0
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%