Missouri
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#55
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#25
Pace69.2#173
Improvement+2.1#53

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#31
First Shot+5.6#44
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#86
Layup/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#248
Freethrows+3.0#42
Improvement+2.1#43

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#108
First Shot+4.6#48
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#327
Layups/Dunks+5.9#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
Freethrows+1.8#64
Improvement+0.0#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 7.1% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 13.0% 20.8% 9.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 59.4% 39.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.0% 59.1% 38.8%
Average Seed 7.9 7.5 8.2
.500 or above 82.4% 92.6% 77.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.8% 29.6% 21.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 12.9% 18.2%
First Four7.4% 7.9% 7.2%
First Round41.2% 55.4% 35.0%
Second Round21.1% 30.0% 17.3%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 10.4% 5.0%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.8% 1.8%
Final Four0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 12
Quad 23 - 28 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 14
Quad 49 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 75-83 30%     0 - 1 +7.2 +4.5 +3.0
  Nov 08, 2024 255   Howard W 77-62 94%     1 - 1 +6.9 -1.0 +8.0
  Nov 11, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 84-77 94%     2 - 1 -1.1 +7.1 -8.0
  Nov 14, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 111-39 99.5%    3 - 1 +47.8 +32.1 +18.0
  Nov 22, 2024 277   Pacific W 91-56 95%     4 - 1 +25.7 +21.0 +6.9
  Nov 24, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 112-63 99%     5 - 1 +28.7 +14.5 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2024 351   Lindenwood W 81-61 98%     6 - 1 +4.6 -1.2 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2024 118   California W 98-93 83%     7 - 1 +4.7 +14.1 -9.8
  Dec 08, 2024 10   Kansas W 76-67 34%     8 - 1 +23.2 +7.6 +15.2
  Dec 14, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn W 88-61 98%     9 - 1 +12.6 +15.3 -1.0
  Dec 17, 2024 167   Jacksonville St. W 83-72 89%     10 - 1 +7.4 +18.5 -9.5
  Dec 22, 2024 16   Illinois L 76-81 31%    
  Dec 30, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 87-67 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-88 7%    
  Jan 07, 2025 56   LSU W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 81-78 59%    
  Jan 14, 2025 7   @ Florida L 75-86 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 29   Arkansas W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 21, 2025 31   @ Texas L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 27   Mississippi L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 73-79 28%    
  Feb 05, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 65-79 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 25   Texas A&M L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 32   @ Georgia L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 8   Alabama L 82-87 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 69   South Carolina W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt L 78-81 38%    
  Mar 05, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 74-79 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 9   Kentucky L 81-85 35%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.5 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.7 1.4 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.4 3.7 3.6 0.3 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 5.6 1.5 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.4 0.2 9.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.0 0.9 0.0 10.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.4 2.2 0.1 10.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.5 15th
16th 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.2 16th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.1 9.8 13.3 15.0 14.9 13.2 9.7 6.7 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 58.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 33.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.3% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.0% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 4.1% 99.6% 2.8% 96.7% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-8 6.7% 99.3% 0.9% 98.3% 6.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 9.7% 96.9% 0.6% 96.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.9%
8-10 13.2% 83.7% 0.2% 83.4% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.0 2.2 83.6%
7-11 14.9% 50.9% 0.2% 50.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.1 0.4 7.3 50.9%
6-12 15.0% 18.4% 0.1% 18.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 18.3%
5-13 13.3% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.0 2.6%
4-14 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 9.8 0.0%
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 45.2% 0.4% 44.8% 7.9 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 4.0 5.2 6.0 6.4 6.4 5.8 6.7 0.9 54.8 45.0%