Missouri
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#62
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#88
Pace66.8#258
Improvement+0.9#91

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#40
First Shot+5.0#52
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#115
Layup/Dunks+5.2#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+2.3#66
Improvement+0.8#78

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#97
First Shot+4.5#58
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#298
Layups/Dunks+3.6#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#132
Freethrows+0.7#145
Improvement+0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 5.9% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 26.8% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.5% 26.1% 9.8%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 8.8
.500 or above 68.7% 69.8% 41.6%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 30.7% 16.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 13.6% 22.1%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 1.9%
First Round24.2% 24.8% 8.9%
Second Round12.9% 13.2% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 4.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 23 - 37 - 14
Quad 33 - 19 - 14
Quad 48 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 33   @ Memphis L 75-83 27%     0 - 1 +7.2 +5.2 +2.4
  Nov 08, 2024 231   Howard W 77-62 91%     1 - 1 +8.6 +0.3 +8.4
  Nov 11, 2024 243   Eastern Washington W 84-77 92%     2 - 1 +0.0 +7.8 -7.6
  Nov 14, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 111-39 99%     3 - 1 +48.3 +32.6 +17.9
  Nov 22, 2024 291   Pacific W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 24, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-65 99.5%   
  Nov 27, 2024 355   Lindenwood W 85-59 99%    
  Dec 03, 2024 102   California W 77-70 75%    
  Dec 08, 2024 6   Kansas L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 14, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 17, 2024 183   Jacksonville St. W 75-62 88%    
  Dec 22, 2024 31   Illinois L 76-80 36%    
  Dec 30, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 79-61 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 69-83 11%    
  Jan 07, 2025 48   LSU W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 14, 2025 19   @ Florida L 75-83 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 25   Arkansas L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 21, 2025 29   @ Texas L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 47   Mississippi W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 67-79 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   Texas A&M L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 54   @ Georgia L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 7   Alabama L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 25   @ Arkansas L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 25, 2025 72   South Carolina W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 05, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   Kentucky L 77-82 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.0 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 1.4 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 4.7 2.8 0.2 0.0 9.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.8 1.7 0.2 8.9 15th
16th 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 16th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.9 9.0 11.4 13.0 13.4 12.6 10.2 7.8 5.5 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 56.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.8% 99.7% 10.8% 88.9% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 1.9% 99.7% 5.8% 93.9% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 3.4% 97.3% 3.9% 93.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
11-7 5.5% 89.2% 2.8% 86.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 88.9%
10-8 7.8% 72.9% 1.2% 71.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.1 72.5%
9-9 10.2% 52.2% 0.6% 51.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.1 4.9 51.9%
8-10 12.6% 22.2% 0.6% 21.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.8 21.7%
7-11 13.4% 6.1% 0.2% 5.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.6 5.9%
6-12 13.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 0.8%
5-13 11.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0%
4-14 9.0% 9.0
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 26.1% 0.8% 25.3% 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 0.5 0.0 73.9 25.5%