Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#124
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#92
Pace72.7#86
Improvement-2.3#352

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#189
First Shot-5.3#318
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#13
Layup/Dunks+4.6#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#340
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement-0.5#263

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#85
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#129
Layups/Dunks-3.8#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
Freethrows+3.6#32
Improvement-1.7#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 18.2% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 89.2% 91.5% 75.0%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 88.5% 79.3%
Conference Champion 20.1% 21.3% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round17.3% 18.1% 12.2%
Second Round2.6% 2.8% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 35 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 137   Toledo W 84-74 65%     1 - 0 +8.7 +2.7 +5.4
  Nov 09, 2024 357   @ New Orleans W 78-61 90%     2 - 0 +5.8 -6.4 +10.8
  Nov 13, 2024 25   @ Arkansas L 49-65 10%     2 - 1 +0.4 -13.7 +13.8
  Nov 17, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 61-82 14%     2 - 2 -6.6 -7.5 +2.0
  Nov 19, 2024 353   @ West Georgia W 84-65 88%     3 - 2 +8.8 +13.9 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 273   Texas San Antonio W 82-71 86%    
  Nov 29, 2024 223   Merrimack W 72-63 79%    
  Dec 01, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky W 79-71 75%    
  Dec 10, 2024 4   @ Houston L 57-77 3%    
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ Georgia St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 02, 2025 200   @ Appalachian St. W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 196   @ Marshall W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 165   Texas St. W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 107   Arkansas St. W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 321   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 198   @ South Alabama W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 256   Southern Miss W 84-74 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 198   South Alabama W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 30, 2025 220   Georgia Southern W 85-77 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 321   Louisiana Monroe W 77-62 90%    
  Feb 05, 2025 126   @ James Madison L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 12, 2025 245   @ Louisiana W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   @ Arkansas St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 245   Louisiana W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 295   Coastal Carolina W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 25, 2025 165   @ Texas St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 256   @ Southern Miss W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 6.0 4.5 2.1 0.5 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.1 5.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.0 4.4 1.2 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.2 4.3 0.8 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 3.9 1.1 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.3 1.5 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.8 8.4 11.1 13.0 14.1 13.2 11.8 8.2 4.8 2.1 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.8% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 93.0% 4.5    3.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 72.5% 6.0    3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.8% 4.9    2.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.7% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.2 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 56.9% 52.8% 4.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.7%
17-1 2.1% 46.0% 44.2% 1.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 3.2%
16-2 4.8% 41.5% 41.4% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.8 0.1%
15-3 8.2% 31.8% 31.8% 12.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.6
14-4 11.8% 27.3% 27.3% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.6
13-5 13.2% 22.5% 22.5% 13.2 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.3
12-6 14.1% 16.1% 16.1% 13.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-7 13.0% 11.0% 11.0% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 11.6
10-8 11.1% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.2
9-9 8.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1
8-10 5.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6
7-11 3.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.9 6.4 3.9 1.1 0.2 82.7 0.1%