Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#125
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#155
Pace69.1#175
Improvement-0.4#207

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#160
First Shot-2.1#234
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#54
Layup/Dunks+5.0#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement+1.4#75

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#114
First Shot-0.3#179
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#42
Layups/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#299
Freethrows+3.4#14
Improvement-1.8#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 19.0% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 91.1% 94.8% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 94.1% 81.3%
Conference Champion 20.4% 25.2% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round17.1% 19.0% 13.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.4% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 211   Toledo W 84-74 77%     1 - 0 +4.5 -0.3 +4.2
  Nov 09, 2024 345   @ New Orleans W 78-61 85%     2 - 0 +8.1 -5.5 +12.2
  Nov 13, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 49-65 11%     2 - 1 -0.2 -14.5 +14.0
  Nov 17, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 61-82 9%     2 - 2 -4.0 -7.1 +4.2
  Nov 19, 2024 341   @ West Georgia W 84-65 84%     3 - 2 +10.6 +15.4 -3.0
  Nov 25, 2024 230   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 80%     4 - 2 +7.4 +7.1 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 198   Merrimack L 68-72 75%     4 - 3 -8.6 +2.1 -11.1
  Dec 01, 2024 220   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 78%     5 - 3 +4.2 +7.8 -3.4
  Dec 10, 2024 6   @ Houston L 42-62 4%     5 - 4 +2.1 -6.8 +3.5
  Dec 21, 2024 263   @ Georgia St. W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 173   @ Appalachian St. W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 190   @ Marshall W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 139   Texas St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 109   Arkansas St. W 73-72 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 202   @ South Alabama W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 23, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   South Alabama W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 30, 2025 234   Georgia Southern W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 77-62 92%    
  Feb 05, 2025 115   @ James Madison L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 291   @ Louisiana W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 109   @ Arkansas St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 291   Louisiana W 79-67 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 268   Coastal Carolina W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 25, 2025 139   @ Texas St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 28, 2025 283   @ Southern Miss W 75-69 70%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 6.2 4.2 1.7 0.3 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.9 5.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 6.4 5.0 1.1 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.7 4.6 0.9 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.4 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.9 4.9 7.9 11.2 14.1 15.0 15.1 12.2 8.1 4.4 1.7 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 94.9% 4.2    3.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 77.1% 6.2    4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 44.0% 5.4    2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.3% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 12.0 6.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 52.1% 52.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
17-1 1.7% 45.3% 45.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9
16-2 4.4% 36.7% 36.7% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.8
15-3 8.1% 31.6% 31.6% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.2 5.5
14-4 12.2% 26.2% 26.2% 13.1 0.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 9.0
13-5 15.1% 22.0% 22.0% 13.4 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.8
12-6 15.0% 15.6% 15.6% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 12.7
11-7 14.1% 11.4% 11.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 12.5
10-8 11.2% 7.3% 7.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 7.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.5
8-10 4.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
7-11 2.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.7 4.8 1.6 0.2 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.9 2.3 2.3 1.1 2.3 10.3 50.6 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%