IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+1.0	#142
Expected Predictive Rating	+4.2	#102

Pace	63.3	#325
Improvement	-2.1	#279

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#179	D	B-	C	C	B
Defense	#121	B-	B+	D	C-	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	47%	#15	1.02	#323	+1.6	#123
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#228	0.74	#202	-1.2	#233
Three Pointers	36%	#298	0.96	#251	-3.7	#305
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#276	-3.3	#274
Freethrows	17.4	#203	73%	#171	12.7	#186
Second Chance	38.1%	#18	0.94	#308	0.36	#97
Turnovers					16.8%	#209
Total Offense					-0.5	#179

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	41%	#120	1.07	#71	+0.5	#154
2 Pt. Jumpers	22%	#108	0.76	#193	-0.8	#243
Three Pointers	37%	#292	1.00	#167	+2.4	#96
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#118	+2.1	#118
Freethrows	18.4	#223	74%	#271	13.6	#243
Second Chance	25.9%	#36	1.01	#136	0.26	#49
Turnovers					14.6%	#290
Total Defense					+1.5	#121

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.9%	#61	-0.1%	#151
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-8.4%	#313	-4.0%	#103
Possession Length	18.5	#295	17.5	#220
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.11	#328	0.17	#192
Improvement	-1.3	#262	-0.7	#236

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.0%	24.9%	17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	13.2	13.5

.500 or above	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%
.500 or above in Conference	89.7%	96.0%	83.7%
Conference Champion	20.9%	34.0%	8.4%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.4%	1.6%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	21.0%	24.9%	17.2%
Second Round	1.1%	1.3%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 9
Quad 4	16 - 2	22 - 11

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	303 South Carolina Upstate	W	87 - 75	87%	+8	1 - 0		+1	+9	A	D-	A+	-9	D	C	A-
Fri, Nov 7	123 @UC Irvine	W	69 - 61	33%	+3	2 - 0		+13	+1	C	C	F	+12	A+	A+	F
Fri, Nov 14	356 Western Illinois	W	69 - 59	94%	+6	3 - 0		-7	-2	F	F	A+	-4	D-	A+	F
Tue, Nov 18	293 UC Riverside	W	80 - 57	86%	+15	4 - 0		+12	-4	F	C	D	+15	A+	A+	A+
Fri, Nov 21	287 Grambling St.	W	72 - 59	85%	+13	5 - 0		+3	+2	A+	D-	F	+2	C	A+	C
Tue, Nov 25	209 San Diego	W	76 - 61	65%	+2	6 - 0		+12	+1	D	A+	F	+11	B+	A+	C
Sat, Nov 29	195 @Oregon St.	W	75 - 69	51%	+2	7 - 0		+7	+5	B	F	A+	+2	D	A+	C
Mon, Dec 1	78 @Colorado	L	70 - 78	18%	+2	7 - 1		+3	+3	D-	C-	C	-0	B	C	C
Wed, Dec 3	12 BYU	L	44 - 66	6%	-18	7 - 2		-3	+1	D-	C	A+	-15	D	F	F
Sat, Dec 6	104 @Utah	L	85 - 91	27%	-4	7 - 3		+2	+12	D	A+	D	-11	B-	F	D
Fri, Dec 12	243 @Eastern Washington	W	88 - 83	60%	+5	8 - 3		+3	+12	B	A+	F	-9	C-	F	F
Tue, Dec 16	246 Southern	W	75 - 67	79%	+4	9 - 3		+0	+1	F	D-	A	-1	B-	C-	A-
Sat, Dec 20	290 Sacramento St.	W	74 - 67	85%	+2	10 - 3		-3	-2	F	A+	F	-1	A-	F	C+
Mon, Dec 29	107 @Utah Valley	L	66 - 73	27%	-0	10 - 4	0 - 1	+0	-3	A+	F	F	+3	D+	A+	F
Thu, Jan 1	156 @Texas Arlington	L	51 - 63	41%	-4	10 - 5	0 - 2	-9	-12	D	F	F	+2	A+	B-	F
Sat, Jan 3	189 @Tarleton St.	L	76 - 81 OT	49%	-1	10 - 6	0 - 3	-4	-1	C	A+	F	-3	D-	A+	B-
Thu, Jan 8	233 Utah Tech	W	84 - 72	78%	+7	11 - 6	1 - 3	+5	+18	D-	A+	A+	-12	F	A+	D
Sat, Jan 10	284 Southern Utah	W	58 - 55	85%	+6	12 - 6	2 - 3	-7	-9	F	A	A+	+3	A+	F	B-
Thu, Jan 15	258 @Abilene Christian	W	74 - 58	62%	+13	13 - 6	3 - 3	+14	+9	D	C	A+	+7	B	A+	F
Wed, Jan 21	233 Utah Tech	W	73 - 64	78%	+5	14 - 6	4 - 3	+2	+7	F	A+	A+	-4	A+	F	F
Sat, Jan 24	107 Utah Valley	L	71 - 72	49%
Sat, Jan 31	156 @Texas Arlington	L	64 - 66	42%
Thu, Feb 5	189 Tarleton St.	W	76 - 70	71%
Sat, Feb 7	258 Abilene Christian	W	72 - 63	81%
Thu, Feb 12	284 @Southern Utah	W	73 - 68	68%
Sat, Feb 14	233 @Utah Tech	W	70 - 68	57%
Thu, Feb 19	107 @Utah Valley	L	68 - 74	28%
Thu, Feb 26	156 Texas Arlington	W	67 - 63	64%
Sat, Feb 28	189 Tarleton St.	W	76 - 70	71%
Thu, Mar 5	258 Abilene Christian	W	72 - 63	80%
Sat, Mar 7	284 @Southern Utah	W	73 - 68	68%
Totals						21 - 10	11 - 7	+1	-1	D	B-	C	+2	B-	B+	D

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st										0.0	0.1	1.6	6.0	8.2	4.3	0.7				20.9	1st
2nd										0.6	5.0	12.7	11.4	3.4	0.2					33.4	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.0	7.3	12.4	7.5	1.5	0.0						29.8	3rd
4th								0.5	3.8	4.9	1.4	0.1								10.6	4th
5th							0.1	1.4	1.8	0.4	0.0									3.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	0.7	0.1											1.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0												0.3	7th

Total					0.0	0.1	0.8	2.6	6.7	13.1	19.0	22.0	18.9	11.7	4.5	0.7					Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	7-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	100.0%	0.7	0.7
14-4	95.7%	4.3	3.6	0.7
13-5	70.4%	8.2	4.7	3.2	0.3
12-6	31.6%	6.0	1.9	3.0	1.0	0.0
11-7	7.4%	1.6	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0
10-8	0.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%	0.0						0.0

Total	20.9%	20.9	11.1	7.6	1.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.7%	48.3%	48.3%		12.0											0.1	0.3	0.0	0.0			0.4
14-4	4.5%	38.5%	38.5%		12.6											0.0	0.7	0.8	0.1			2.7
13-5	11.7%	34.0%	34.0%		13.0											0.0	0.9	2.3	0.8	0.0		7.7
12-6	18.9%	29.0%	29.0%		13.3												0.6	3.1	1.7	0.1		13.4
11-7	22.0%	21.3%	21.3%		13.5												0.3	2.2	2.0	0.2		17.3
10-8	19.0%	13.8%	13.8%		13.8												0.0	0.9	1.3	0.4		16.3
9-9	13.1%	10.9%	10.9%		14.0												0.0	0.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	11.7
8-10	6.7%	8.8%	8.8%		14.4													0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	6.1
7-11	2.6%	4.9%	4.9%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.0	2.5
6-12	0.8%	3.9%	3.9%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.7
5-13	0.1%																					0.1
4-14	0.0%																					0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	21.0%	21.0%	0.0%	13.3																	79.0	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	11	12	13	14
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	12.0	14.1	73.2	11.3	1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%