California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#131
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#83
Pace65.1#296
Improvement-1.3#272

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#148
First Shot+1.3#143
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#227
Layup/Dunks+5.3#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#289
Freethrows+0.9#133
Improvement+0.3#156

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot+1.4#120
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#184
Layups/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#98
Freethrows-0.1#186
Improvement-1.5#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 24.3% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 97.0% 98.6% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 90.8% 85.9%
Conference Champion 22.9% 25.6% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round22.4% 24.3% 19.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 36 - 8
Quad 416 - 322 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 274 South Carolina Upstate W 87-75 85%     1 - 0 +3.1 +10.1 -7.2
  Fri, Nov 7 120 @UC Irvine W 69-61 35%     2 - 0 +13.9 +3.1 +10.6
  Fri, Nov 14 361 Western Illinois W 69-59 95%     3 - 0 -7.5 -4.8 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 258 UC Riverside W 80-57 83%     4 - 0 +14.7 -4.3 +17.2
  Fri, Nov 21 284 Grambling St. W 72-59 86%     5 - 0 +3.4 +2.3 +2.2
  Tue, Nov 25 264 San Diego W 76-61 77%     6 - 0 +9.5 -1.4 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 29 165 @Oregon St. W 75-69 49%     7 - 0 +8.4 +5.8 +2.9
  Mon, Dec 1 63 @Colorado L 70-78 18%     7 - 1 +3.7 +1.8 +1.7
  Wed, Dec 3 9 BYU L 44-66 6%     7 - 2 -2.5 +0.9 -14.2
  Sat, Dec 6 114 @Utah L 85-91 33%     7 - 3 +0.4 +12.5 -12.0
  Fri, Dec 12 234 @Eastern Washington W 76-73 62%    
  Tue, Dec 16 199 Southern W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Dec 20 278 Sacramento St. W 79-68 85%    
  Mon, Dec 29 83 @Utah Valley L 66-74 24%    
  Thu, Jan 1 191 @Texas Arlington W 69-68 53%    
  Sat, Jan 3 201 @Tarleton St. W 72-70 55%    
  Thu, Jan 8 257 Utah Tech W 74-64 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 320 Southern Utah W 78-64 90%    
  Thu, Jan 15 215 @Abilene Christian W 68-65 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 257 Utah Tech W 74-64 83%    
  Sat, Jan 24 83 Utah Valley L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 191 @Texas Arlington W 69-68 54%    
  Thu, Feb 5 201 Tarleton St. W 75-67 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 215 Abilene Christian W 71-62 77%    
  Thu, Feb 12 320 @Southern Utah W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 257 @Utah Tech W 71-67 65%    
  Thu, Feb 19 83 @Utah Valley L 66-74 25%    
  Thu, Feb 26 191 Texas Arlington W 72-65 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 201 Tarleton St. W 75-67 75%    
  Thu, Mar 5 215 Abilene Christian W 71-62 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 320 @Southern Utah W 75-67 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 6.1 6.0 3.6 1.3 0.2 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.8 11.4 10.1 5.5 1.6 0.1 39.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.7 6.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 5.5 8.2 11.5 14.8 15.5 14.5 11.6 7.6 3.8 1.3 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
16-2 96.1% 3.6    3.2 0.4
15-3 78.7% 6.0    4.5 1.5 0.0
14-4 52.7% 6.1    3.7 2.3 0.1
13-5 26.8% 3.9    1.7 1.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 9.9% 1.5    0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 15.1 7.0 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 55.7% 55.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 51.7% 51.7% 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6
16-2 3.8% 43.9% 43.9% 12.2 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1
15-3 7.6% 41.0% 41.0% 12.6 0.0 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.5
14-4 11.6% 33.5% 33.5% 12.9 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.7
13-5 14.5% 28.8% 28.8% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.1 10.3
12-6 15.5% 22.7% 22.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.2 0.2 12.0
11-7 14.8% 16.6% 16.6% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 12.3
10-8 11.5% 13.3% 13.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 10.0
9-9 8.2% 8.4% 8.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.5
8-10 5.5% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.2
7-11 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.2 9.5 5.5 1.4 0.2 77.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 7.1 7.1 14.3 57.1 14.3