UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.3 276
Results Rating -7.3 284
Consistency 0.16 224
Pace 70.0 133
Improvement +3.1 70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 303 C- D- D C C
Defense C- 217 C- C+ D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 116 C- 56% 220 +0.5 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 152 C- 36% 225 -0.3 196
Three Pointers 39% 226 D+ 32% 261 -2.2 259
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 174 D+ -2.1 257
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 238
Second Chance D+ 27.1% 272 F+ 0.85 357 D- 0.23 340
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 254
Other Turnovers D 8.6% 328
Turnovers D 18.7% 304
Freethrows C 0.30 197 C+ 74% 141 C 0.22 173
Total Offense D -4.9 303

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 45% 244 D+ 12.8% 295
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 120 B 2.9% 49
Three Pointers F+ 73% 352 B 0.4% 63
Total D+ 50% 297 C- 6.0% 229


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 C- 60% 233 +4.7 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 147 D 42% 319 +1.2 284
Three Pointers 34% 354 C+ 33% 145 -4.2 24
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 239 C- +1.3 233
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 238
Second Chance C 30.5% 193 B- 0.98 98 C+ 0.30 141
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.2% 330
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 94
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 277
Freethrows D+ 0.34 295 B- 71% 81 D+ 0.24 267
Total Defense C- -1.4 217

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 211 C 11.3% 157
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 283 C- 4.0% 221
Three Pointers C 83% 159 B 1.5% 62
Total C+ 54% 155 C+ 6.5% 112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 193 16.6 51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 306 0.18 202
Consistency 0.12 158 0.12 141
Improvement -1.0 245 +4.1 23

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 284 274 261
Results Rating Rank 281 277 258
Conference Record 5 - 15 5 - 15 6 - 14
Conference Finish 10 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 12.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 31 - 91 - 17
Quad 47 - 58 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 300 @North Dakota W 74 - 70 46% +5  84% 1 - 0 C -1 D- -7 C+ F F B+ +6 F+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 53 @New Mexico L 68 - 82 4% -5  5% 1 - 1 C -0 C+ +3 A- D- D+ D+ -5 C- C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 300 North Dakota L 74 - 76 69% -0  36% 1 - 2 D- -13 F -14 C+ F F C+ +1 F+ A C
 Tue, Nov 18 134 @California Baptist L 57 - 80 15% -15  1% 1 - 3 F -18 F -18 F+ D+ F C+ +1 C B- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 238 @San Diego W 85 - 71 32% +10  95% 2 - 3 B+ +13 A- +10 A B B B- +3 A- D D+
 Mon, Nov 24 308 Grambling St. W 83 - 74 71% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -3 B +7 A D- C- F+ -10 C C- F
 Sat, Nov 29 195 @Utah Tech L 69 - 77 24% -4  6% 3 - 4 D+ -7 C +0 B D+ D D- -8 D- D+ F
 Thu, Dec 4 123 @UC Irvine L 60 - 73 13% -11  0% 3 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -7 D -5 F F+ A- C- -2 D- A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 226 @Cal Poly W 88 - 84 29% +7  82% 4 - 5 1 - 1 C+ +3 A- +9 B- C+ A+ D -6 F A D
 Sat, Dec 13 23 @BYU L 53 - 100 2% -22  0% 4 - 6 F -28 F -20 D- D F D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 111 @St. Thomas L 78 - 92 12% -7  27% 4 - 7 D+ -8 B- +5 B D D+ F -13 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 30 @UCLA L 65 - 97 2% -14  0% 4 - 8 D- -14 F -11 B- F F C -0 B D- C
 Thu, Jan 1 118 Hawaii L 45 - 88 27% -21  0% 4 - 9 1 - 2 F -43 F -23 F F+ D+ F -25 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 66 - 67 57% -0  40% 4 - 10 1 - 3 D -9 F -14 D+ F F B +4 A F B
 Sat, Jan 10 133 UC San Diego L 66 - 69 31% +1  47% 4 - 11 1 - 4 C- -4 D+ -2 D- B+ F C- -2 D C- B
 Thu, Jan 15 268 @Long Beach St. L 73 - 88 37% -10  6% 4 - 12 1 - 5 F -18 C- -2 F C+ A+ F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 203 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 72 46% +9  97% 5 - 12 2 - 5 C+ +4 D -6 B F F+ A +9 A+ B- B
 Thu, Jan 22 123 UC Irvine L 66 - 80 28% -10  0% 5 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 D -4 D C- D+ F -10 D- D B
 Sat, Jan 24 175 @UC Davis L 66 - 74 21% -10  0% 5 - 14 2 - 7 D+ -6 D- -7 F B C C+ +1 D- B C+
 Thu, Jan 29 268 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 60% +0  47% 6 - 14 3 - 7 C +1 D- -8 D- C- D A +9 A- D+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 226 Cal Poly L 87 - 94 52% -2  23% 6 - 15 3 - 8 D- -14 C+ +2 B B- F F -15 F C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 203 @Cal St. Fullerton L 72 - 78 25% +1  47% 6 - 16 3 - 9 D+ -5 F+ -9 F+ F A+ B +4 B+ A- D
 Sat, Feb 7 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 74 - 88 20% -3  25% 6 - 17 3 - 10 D- -12 D+ -3 D C- D F+ -9 F D- D
 Thu, Feb 12 142 UC Santa Barbara L 68 - 76 33% +3  64% 6 - 18 3 - 11 D -10 D -4 A F F D -6 B F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 133 @UC San Diego L 66 - 72 15% -5  2% 6 - 19 3 - 12 C -1 D -6 D- F+ C+ B +5 B+ A- D
 Thu, Feb 19 329 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 65 77% +15  96% 7 - 19 4 - 12 B+ +14 C+ +2 A F B- A +9 A A+ D
 Sat, Feb 21 175 UC Davis L 73 - 78 41% -4  13% 7 - 20 4 - 13 D -9 F+ -9 F C+ D C -0 A- B- D-
 Thu, Feb 26 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 59 - 70 16% -4  12% 7 - 21 4 - 14 D+ -7 F -15 F F C A- +8 B+ C C+
 Sat, Feb 28 168 Cal St. Northridge W 95 - 84 40% +5  65% 8 - 21 5 - 14 B- +7 B +7 C- C A+ C -1 A- D D-
 Fri, Mar 6 118 @Hawaii L 66 - 78 12%
Totals 8 - 22 5 - 15 -6 D -5 A+ D+ C C- -1 D+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C- D+ D+ 41% 40% 39% C C- D+ F+ D- D C C+ C C- C- D C+ C- 45% 21% 34% C- C- C B- C+ D+ D+ B- D+
1.02 56% 36% 32% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.9 .23 19% .30 74% .22 1.11 60% 42% 33% +1 0 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 15% .34 71% .21
Nov
6		 North Dakota D- B A+ F C- 59% 7% 34% A- C+ F F+ F F A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ F B F 44% 16% 40% C F+ B A+ A+ C- F+ A+ B
1.05 67% 67% 29% +4 +3 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 27% .52 81% .43 0.99 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 24% 0.6 .15 14% .40 50% .20
Nov
11		 New Mexico C+ F F A+ A 22% 24% 54% D A- F C+ D- D+ D A+ B- D+ F C A+ C- 51% 18% 32% C C- B+ D- C+ F B A+ B+
1.02 30% 27% 52% +6 -2 1.11 16% 1.0 .16 21% .25 92% .23 1.23 72% 40% 28% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 8% .28 65% .18
Nov
15		 North Dakota F C+ A+ C+ C 40% 6% 53% B- C+ F+ F F F C+ F D C+ D+ A+ D- F+ 49% 10% 41% D- F+ B A+ A C A+ A+ A+
1.00 63% 67% 36% +5 +2 1.17 27% 0.9 .23 28% .39 62% .24 1.02 59% 17% 38% 0 +2 1.07 24% 0.7 .17 15% .22 50% .11
Nov
18		 California Baptist F F B+ F F 46% 21% 33% B- F+ B- F D+ F F D F C+ B F A+ B- 64% 20% 16% F+ C F A+ B- D+ F+ A D+
0.75 42% 45% 24% -11 0 0.81 31% 0.7 .21 29% .24 69% .17 1.05 47% 55% 22% -7 +2 0.93 47% 0.6 .29 16% .36 65% .23
Nov
21		 San Diego A- C+ D A+ A 49% 18% 33% B- A C B+ B B A D- B+ B- C A+ B+ A+ 41% 12% 47% F A- F C+ D D+ F C F
1.25 64% 38% 53% +12 +1 1.29 34% 1.2 .41 16% .44 68% .30 1.04 60% 0% 30% -6 +1 0.92 36% 0.9 .33 16% .33 74% .25
Nov
24		 Grambling St. B A D+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% C A F B D- C- A+ B A+ F+ A+ F B- C 41% 27% 33% B- C B+ F C- F F B- F
1.20 73% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.27 24% 1.2 .28 20% .56 77% .43 1.07 40% 54% 31% -5 -1 0.92 23% 1.3 .29 12% .54 70% .38
Nov
29		 Utah Tech C A A+ F+ B+ 39% 22% 39% D+ B D+ C- D+ D B C- B- D- C+ F C- D- 49% 22% 29% C- D- A- F D+ F F F F
1.09 72% 50% 28% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 17% .32 71% .23 1.22 58% 64% 36% +7 +1 1.16 22% 1.4 .30 11% .32 83% .27
Dec
4		 UC Irvine D F F F F 50% 15% 35% A F C- F F+ A- A+ D A+ C- A+ F F D 46% 20% 34% F+ D- A+ D A- D+ F B- F
0.88 35% 25% 28% -17 +1 0.71 31% 0.6 .20 15% .48 68% .33 1.07 35% 50% 53% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.1 .24 16% .45 65% .30
Dec
6		 Cal Poly A- A A F C+ 48% 19% 33% C+ B- D A+ C+ A+ A F+ B D F F C F 45% 6% 49% D F C A+ A D F D+ F
1.23 73% 50% 22% +4 +1 1.11 27% 1.3 .36 7% .36 67% .24 1.18 68% 67% 33% +6 +2 1.18 30% 0.6 .18 18% .45 81% .36
Dec
13		 BYU F D- D- D- D- 19% 37% 44% D- D- F+ B+ D F F F F D+ F D- F F 35% 31% 35% B+ F C+ A+ A+ C- F+ A+ B+
0.70 50% 30% 29% -8 -4 0.80 17% 1.3 .22 24% .09 20% .02 1.33 95% 47% 47% +22 -2 1.44 36% 0.7 .25 13% .40 50% .20
Dec
20		 St. Thomas B- A F A+ B+ 43% 22% 35% D+ B C- F+ D D+ C+ A+ A F D+ F F F 50% 20% 30% B F A+ F C- F C- F F+
1.13 71% 18% 41% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 19% .28 94% .27 1.33 67% 55% 50% +15 +1 1.33 9% 2.5 .22 9% .30 84% .25
Dec
23		 UCLA F A- C F B- 45% 28% 28% C B- C- F F F A+ D+ A+ C D- C- B+ B 33% 33% 33% B B C+ F D- C D- F F
0.83 67% 38% 23% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.1 .03 28% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 42% 32% +4 -2 1.05 32% 1.5 .47 13% .38 85% .32
Jan
1		 Hawaii F F F F F 56% 16% 29% A- F F C F+ D+ D+ D+ D+ F D+ F F F 47% 8% 45% F+ F F C+ F C A A+ A+
0.71 44% 14% 15% -20 +2 0.67 17% 1.0 .17 17% .29 67% .19 1.39 63% 50% 48% +12 +2 1.31 47% 1.0 .47 19% .27 50% .14
Jan
8		 Cal St. Bakersfield F F B- A+ D+ 42% 18% 40% C+ D+ F F F F F F F B C- A+ F B 24% 57% 18% A+ A F F+ F B C C C
0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19 0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27
Jan
10		 UC San Diego D+ C- B- F D 27% 24% 49% D- D- B B B+ F A+ A+ A+ C- F D+ A+ D+ 49% 12% 39% D D D- B+ C- B F C F
1.02 54% 42% 25% -7 -1 0.86 33% 1.2 .38 20% .39 85% .33 1.07 75% 40% 25% +3 +2 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 19% .47 68% .32
Jan
15		 Long Beach St. C- C- F F F 48% 22% 30% C+ F B D C+ A+ B B B+ F D- F F F 41% 33% 25% C- F D+ B- C- F F+ B D
1.07 58% 17% 19% -12 0 0.80 33% 1.2 .38 10% .39 79% .31 1.30 67% 53% 54% +16 -1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 12% .33 70% .23
Jan
17		 Cal St. Fullerton D A- A+ C+ B+ 34% 26% 40% D- B F+ F F F+ B+ A+ A A D B- A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% C A+ C+ B B- B F C F
1.04 71% 54% 35% +9 -1 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 22% .36 82% .30 0.93 64% 33% 14% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .49 71% .35
Jan
22		 UC Irvine D F A+ F F+ 45% 13% 42% A D B- D- C- D+ B- A+ A+ F D+ F A+ D 47% 19% 34% F D- F A+ D B F D F
0.93 33% 57% 27% -13 +1 0.79 36% 0.8 .29 20% .28 94% .26 1.13 59% 67% 25% +1 +1 1.06 49% 0.8 .37 20% .55 71% .39
Jan
24		 UC Davis D- F D D- F 48% 6% 46% A- F D+ A+ B C B- F F+ C+ D+ B+ F F+ 43% 23% 34% C- D- C+ A- B C+ F A D-
0.96 46% 33% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.3 .36 19% .34 53% .18 1.08 63% 30% 47% +7 0 1.16 26% 0.9 .22 19% .45 68% .31
Jan
29		 Long Beach St. D- A- C F D- 37% 20% 43% C- D- A- F C- D A+ F A- A A- F A+ A 48% 26% 26% F A- F B+ D+ A F A+ D+
1.03 68% 40% 23% -3 0 0.96 36% 0.9 .33 19% .48 67% .32 0.88 50% 50% 17% -8 0 0.87 34% 0.9 .32 23% .38 60% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Cal Poly C+ C+ A+ C+ B+ 35% 31% 33% F B A+ F B- F A+ F A+ F F+ F C- F 52% 6% 43% F+ F F A- C- F D+ D+ D
1.17 61% 56% 35% +7 -2 1.14 54% 0.7 .38 24% .46 65% .30 1.26 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 38% 0.8 .31 16% .34 81% .27
Feb
5		 Cal St. Fullerton F+ F+ C- D+ F+ 34% 21% 45% D+ F+ F F F A+ F+ F F B A- A+ C+ A+ 62% 10% 29% F B+ A C A- D F F F
0.95 52% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 14% 0.7 .09 12% .24 56% .14 1.03 50% 20% 33% -7 +3 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 13% .49 84% .41
Feb
7		 Cal St. Northridge D+ C B F+ D 25% 13% 63% C D B+ F C- D F A+ D+ F+ D+ F F F 62% 17% 21% D- F B F D- D D- A+ B
1.02 57% 43% 29% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.9 .30 18% .22 92% .20 1.21 61% 44% 55% +9 +2 1.25 29% 1.3 .39 15% .36 45% .16
Feb
12		 UC Santa Barbara D A+ A+ B A+ 38% 20% 42% C A D F F F D- F F D B+ A+ F B+ 45% 17% 38% D B D- F F D+ D B- D+
1.06 76% 56% 37% +12 0 1.27 23% 0.8 .18 26% .30 64% .19 1.18 52% 13% 44% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.4 .48 17% .36 74% .26
Feb
14		 UC San Diego D D F D- F 36% 13% 51% B D- F C- F+ C+ C A+ B+ B D D- A+ A- 45% 14% 41% C- B+ B A+ A- D D- F+ F
0.93 50% 14% 29% -10 +1 0.84 18% 1.0 .18 15% .27 88% .23 1.01 65% 43% 19% -5 +1 0.94 23% 0.8 .18 14% .33 75% .25
Feb
19		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ C F A+ A 47% 18% 35% B- A D F F B- D+ A+ B- A B+ A+ A A+ 44% 40% 15% C+ A A A+ A+ D F+ F F
1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29 0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36
Feb
21		 UC Davis F+ D C F F 37% 17% 46% C- F B D+ C+ D A+ C+ A+ C A+ F A+ A 42% 23% 35% C A- A D- B- D- F C- F
0.98 53% 38% 24% -9 0 0.85 35% 0.9 .32 22% .55 75% .41 1.05 45% 64% 24% -5 0 0.92 20% 1.1 .23 15% .62 77% .47
Feb
26		 UC Santa Barbara F C F+ F F 42% 27% 31% D+ F F F F C C+ A B+ A- D- C B+ B- 32% 34% 34% A+ B+ C+ D+ C C+ F A F
0.87 60% 31% 13% -11 -1 0.79 15% 0.8 .12 16% .37 81% .30 1.03 67% 38% 31% +1 -2 1.00 29% 1.1 .32 19% .51 68% .34
Feb
28		 Cal St. Northridge B B- A+ F D+ 37% 8% 55% A- C- B F C A+ B B+ B+ C D+ A+ A+ A 58% 16% 26% D A- C F+ D D- D+ F F+
1.20 61% 60% 26% -3 +2 0.98 33% 0.9 .31 8% .34 80% .27 1.06 61% 10% 19% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.1 .37 14% .34 74% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 43.3 11.2 54.5 9th
10th 44.6 0.9 45.5 10th
11th 11th
Total 87.9 12.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 12.1% 12.1
5-15 87.9% 87.9
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.1%
Lose Out 87.9%