Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#171
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#192
Pace70.2#165
Improvement-1.3#268

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#258
First Shot-1.5#219
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#293
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#143
Freethrows-1.2#250
Improvement-2.9#354

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot+5.6#35
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#338
Layups/Dunks+0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#66
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+1.7#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 19.5% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 56.4% 78.3% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 78.5% 66.3%
Conference Champion 17.6% 26.3% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 3.6% 7.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round13.0% 19.4% 12.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 410 - 414 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 85 @Stanford L 79-89 16%     0 - 1 -0.6 +0.9 -0.2
  Wed, Nov 12 100 @San Francisco L 70-80 20%     0 - 2 -2.0 +2.6 -4.8
  Mon, Nov 17 295 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93-80 81%     1 - 2 +2.6 +9.7 -7.9
  Tue, Nov 25 257 @Utah Tech W 68-63 55%     2 - 2 +2.7 -5.9 +8.5
  Wed, Dec 3 270 @South Dakota W 77-71 56%     3 - 2 +3.3 -5.3 +8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 233 Nebraska Omaha L 55-60 72%     3 - 3 -12.2 -11.5 -1.8
  Wed, Dec 17 63 @Colorado L 68-81 11%    
  Sat, Dec 20 187 @Tulane L 72-74 41%    
  Thu, Jan 1 195 @Weber St. L 72-74 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 168 @Idaho St. L 66-69 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 278 Sacramento St. W 78-70 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 157 Northern Colorado W 73-71 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 251 Northern Arizona W 74-67 73%    
  Thu, Jan 22 234 @Eastern Washington W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 173 @Idaho L 70-73 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 206 Montana W 77-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 164 Montana St. W 70-67 59%    
  Mon, Feb 2 168 Idaho St. W 69-66 59%    
  Sat, Feb 7 278 @Sacramento St. W 75-73 57%    
  Thu, Feb 12 251 @Northern Arizona W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 157 @Northern Colorado L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 173 Idaho W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 234 Eastern Washington W 78-72 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 164 @Montana St. L 67-70 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 206 @Montana L 74-75 45%    
  Mon, Mar 2 195 Weber St. W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 4.8 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 17.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.2 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 5.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.6 2.9 0.3 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.0 8.4 10.4 12.2 12.7 12.1 10.5 8.4 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 99.4% 1.7    1.6 0.0
15-3 95.2% 3.3    3.0 0.3
14-4 80.2% 4.8    3.5 1.2 0.1
13-5 53.2% 4.5    2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 22.6% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 11.5 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 47.6% 47.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 47.5% 47.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 43.4% 43.4% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.4% 37.1% 37.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.9% 30.6% 30.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.1
13-5 8.4% 25.7% 25.7% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 6.2
12-6 10.5% 19.7% 19.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 8.4
11-7 12.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 10.4
10-8 12.7% 11.6% 11.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 11.3
9-9 12.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 11.2
8-10 10.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
7-11 8.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.2
6-12 6.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-14 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.6 3.7 1.6 86.7 0.0%