St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#169
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#176
Pace69.5#183
Improvement+0.5#159

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#166
First Shot+5.0#54
After Offensive Rebound-5.2#360
Layup/Dunks+9.1#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#77
Freethrows-2.8#325
Improvement+0.3#153

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#185
First Shot-2.1#241
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#89
Layups/Dunks-2.9#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#237
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 24.0% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 89.8% 93.8% 81.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 91.7% 86.3%
Conference Champion 29.8% 32.5% 24.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.0%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.9%
First Round21.8% 23.4% 18.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 6
Quad 415 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 41 @St. Mary's L 58-84 8%     0 - 1 -11.1 -1.8 -11.3
  Sat, Nov 8 340 Army W 83-76 89%     1 - 1 -7.3 +4.2 -11.4
  Mon, Nov 10 151 @Washington St. L 71-81 35%     1 - 2 -6.8 -0.8 -6.3
  Thu, Nov 13 273 Green Bay W 80-61 78%     2 - 2 +10.2 +1.0 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 15 216 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 49%     3 - 2 +11.4 +4.6 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 21 157 Northern Colorado W 73-72 48%     4 - 2 +0.7 -3.2 +3.8
  Sat, Nov 22 303 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 76%     4 - 3 -16.0 -3.7 -11.7
  Sun, Nov 23 275 @Portland W 76-66 59%     5 - 3 +7.0 +0.1 +6.7
  Wed, Dec 3 164 @Montana St. L 74-82 38%     5 - 4 -5.6 +5.3 -11.2
  Sun, Dec 7 195 Weber St. W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Dec 13 203 @UNC Asheville L 74-75 45%    
  Sat, Dec 20 258 UC Riverside W 78-70 76%    
  Sun, Jan 4 294 Denver W 83-73 81%    
  Wed, Jan 7 270 South Dakota W 84-76 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 301 @Oral Roberts W 79-75 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 337 @North Dakota W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 155 @North Dakota St. L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Jan 22 153 South Dakota St. W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 270 @South Dakota W 81-79 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 337 North Dakota W 80-67 88%    
  Sun, Feb 1 346 UMKC W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Feb 4 153 @South Dakota St. L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 301 Oral Roberts W 82-72 82%    
  Thu, Feb 12 233 @Nebraska Omaha W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 346 @UMKC W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 294 @Denver W 80-76 62%    
  Thu, Feb 26 155 North Dakota St. W 73-71 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 233 Nebraska Omaha W 78-72 71%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.3 9.1 6.8 3.0 0.6 29.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 8.9 7.5 2.5 0.4 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 7.8 4.6 0.8 0.0 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.5 2.4 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 1.5 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.2 8.5 12.2 14.7 16.4 15.6 11.6 7.2 3.0 0.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.1
14-2 94.8% 6.8    6.0 0.8
13-3 78.1% 9.1    6.2 2.7 0.2
12-4 46.7% 7.3    3.1 3.4 0.8 0.0
11-5 15.9% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.8% 29.8 19.3 8.2 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 50.5% 50.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.0% 45.9% 45.9% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6
14-2 7.2% 41.2% 41.2% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.2
13-3 11.6% 34.6% 34.6% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.1 7.6
12-4 15.6% 27.4% 27.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.4 11.3
11-5 16.4% 22.8% 22.8% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.7 12.7
10-6 14.7% 17.7% 17.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 12.1
9-7 12.2% 13.2% 13.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 10.6
8-8 8.5% 9.9% 9.9% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 7.6
7-9 5.2% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.8
6-10 2.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.2 2.7
5-11 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-12 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-13 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.8 8.2 4.2 77.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.7 2.0 26.5 71.4