Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.8#353
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#278
Pace78.2#22
Improvement+2.9#29

Offense
Total Offense-8.2#356
First Shot-5.5#325
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#329
Layup/Dunks-0.5#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#302
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-0.5#221

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#330
First Shot-4.8#328
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#181
Layups/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#302
Freethrows-3.7#341
Improvement+3.4#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 5.6% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 18.6% 30.0% 18.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 4.7% 8.3%
First Four0.9% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 49 @Washington L 50-94 2%     0 - 1 -30.4 -19.3 -9.2
  Thu, Nov 6 275 @Portland L 74-83 18%     0 - 2 -12.0 -11.6 +0.9
  Sat, Nov 8 140 @Loyola Marymount L 72-94 6%     0 - 3 -17.6 +3.4 -20.7
  Tue, Nov 11 53 @Oklahoma L 69-95 2%     0 - 4 -12.8 +0.0 -12.9
  Sat, Nov 15 11 @Vanderbilt L 75-104 0.5%    0 - 5 -7.4 +5.5 -11.2
  Tue, Nov 18 40 @SMU L 60-106 1%     0 - 6 -31.0 -14.1 -11.0
  Thu, Nov 20 172 @Marshall L 70-98 9%     0 - 7 -26.1 -8.1 -15.5
  Sun, Nov 23 112 @Miami (OH) L 84-111 5%     0 - 8 -20.3 +1.6 -18.1
  Wed, Dec 3 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 63-62 11%     1 - 8 +1.4 -10.7 +12.1
  Sat, Dec 6 134 @DePaul L 72-76 6%     1 - 9 +0.8 -1.4 +2.4
  Wed, Dec 10 89 @Tulsa L 66-88 2%    
  Sat, Jan 3 272 Alabama A&M L 71-75 35%    
  Mon, Jan 5 276 Alabama St. L 75-79 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 305 @Texas Southern L 73-81 24%    
  Mon, Jan 12 322 @Prairie View L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 343 Florida A&M W 78-76 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 220 Bethune-Cookman L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Jan 24 199 @Southern L 72-85 11%    
  Mon, Jan 26 284 @Grambling St. L 67-76 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 334 Alcorn St. W 77-76 52%    
  Mon, Feb 9 312 Jackson St. L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 276 @Alabama St. L 72-82 19%    
  Mon, Feb 16 272 @Alabama A&M L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 305 Texas Southern L 76-78 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 322 Prairie View L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 80-68 86%    
  Tue, Mar 3 312 @Jackson St. L 71-78 26%    
  Thu, Mar 5 334 @Alcorn St. L 74-79 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.0 1.6 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 3.6 0.3 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.8 5.4 0.8 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.6 5.9 1.5 0.0 19.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 5.1 7.0 4.9 1.4 0.1 20.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.4 7.1 11.6 15.1 16.3 15.0 12.0 8.4 5.4 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 60.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5
12-6 1.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 1.1
11-7 2.9% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.8
10-8 5.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 5.2
9-9 8.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 8.2
8-10 12.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.8
7-11 15.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.9
6-12 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.3
5-13 15.1% 15.1
4-14 11.6% 11.6
3-15 7.1% 7.1
2-16 3.4% 3.4
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%