Utah
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.5 #104
Expected Predictive Rating +3.7 #109
Pace 70.9 #125
Improvement +2.9 #54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #71 B+ C B+ C+ B
Defense #178 C C+ D+ B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.21 #115 +4.4 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #250 0.72 #219 -1.6 #263
Three Pointers 39% #220 1.18 #15 +2.2 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +5.1 #50
Freethrows 18.3 #155 74% #122 13.5 #138
Second Chance 31.2% #161 0.98 #266 0.31 #201
Turnovers 14.4% #61
Total Offense +4.8 #71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.15 #164 -2.5 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #150 0.82 #284 -0.9 #253
Three Pointers 36% #314 1.00 #168 +3.0 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #191 -0.4 #190
Freethrows 15.5 #69 68% #25 10.5 #43
Second Chance 29.1% #115 1.04 #175 0.30 #130
Turnovers 14.8% #284
Total Defense -0.3 #178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #72 0.5% #212
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.0% #63 0.3% #189
Possession Length 17.1 #152 16.6 #59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #99 0.15 #103
Improvement +2.4 #62 +0.5 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 10.9
.500 or above 2.3% 11.6% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 3.0% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.7% 21.3% 47.0%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 23 - 64 - 18
Quad 33 - 17 - 18
Quad 45 - 112 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 238 San Jose St. W 84 - 75 86% +5  1 - 0 +2 +6 B D A -4 C- B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 217 Weber St. W 92 - 89 OT 84% -3  2 - 0 -3 -1 F B B- -3 A- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 320 Holy Cross W 87 - 69 94% +9  3 - 0 +5 +9 B- D+ A+ -4 C C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 124 Sam Houston St. W 85 - 79 69% +9  4 - 0 +5 +7 A- D F -2 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 77 84% +9  5 - 0 +2 +13 A+ F A- -11 D- D C
 Thu, Nov 20 281 Cal Poly L 85 - 92 90% -7  5 - 1 -17 -6 C F F -9 F C- B-
 Tue, Nov 25 79 Grand Canyon L 58 - 68 39% -6  5 - 2 -3 -6 C+ C+ F +3 A+ A F
 Wed, Nov 26 62 Mississippi W 75 - 74 34% +3  6 - 2 +10 +12 A+ F D -2 D- F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 75 @California L 72 - 79 28% -1  6 - 3 +4 +7 B C A- -3 C C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 142 California Baptist W 91 - 85 73% +4  7 - 3 +4 +17 B A+ B+ -13 C F C
 Sat, Dec 13 76 Mississippi St. L 74 - 82 38% +6  7 - 4 -0 +6 A+ F F -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 243 Eastern Washington W 101 - 77 87% +11  8 - 4 +16 +22 A+ B+ A+ -6 A- C F
 Mon, Dec 29 47 @Washington L 65 - 74 19% -3  8 - 5 +5 -0 D A- D +5 C A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 2 Arizona L 78 - 97 8% -15  8 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +9 B B+ B+ -7 C+ D+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 78 @Colorado L 73 - 85 28% -6  8 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +4 F B A+ -5 C+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 10 12 BYU L 84 - 89 15% -4  8 - 8 0 - 3 +11 +14 A B+ A+ -3 A- C- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 15 @Texas Tech L 74 - 88 7% -11  8 - 9 0 - 4 +7 +8 A D C- -1 D+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 45 TCU W 82 - 79 36% +6  9 - 9 1 - 4 +11 +17 A+ B B -6 D- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 85 @Kansas St. L 78 - 81 30% -2  9 - 10 1 - 5 +7 +10 A C A+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 12 @BYU L 72 - 89 5%
 Sat, Jan 31 61 Oklahoma St. L 85 - 86 44%
 Wed, Feb 4 88 Arizona St. W 83 - 82 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 19 @Kansas L 69 - 85 7%
 Tue, Feb 10 4 Houston L 65 - 79 9%
 Sun, Feb 15 49 @Cincinnati L 70 - 79 19%
 Wed, Feb 18 52 @West Virginia L 68 - 77 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 53 Central Florida L 80 - 83 39%
 Tue, Feb 24 8 Iowa St. L 72 - 85 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 88 @Arizona St. L 80 - 85 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 78 Colorado L 80 - 81 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 41 @Baylor L 75 - 86 16%
Totals 12 - 19 4 - 14 +5 +5 B+ C B+ +0 C C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.6 3.6 1.5 0.1 5.7 11th
12th 0.2 4.1 4.3 0.3 8.9 12th
13th 0.1 2.8 7.9 1.7 0.0 12.6 13th
14th 0.0 2.1 10.1 5.5 0.3 0.0 17.9 14th
15th 0.1 1.9 9.3 9.2 1.1 0.0 21.6 15th
16th 3.4 10.4 10.7 2.6 0.1 27.2 16th
Total 3.5 12.4 22.2 24.9 19.3 11.0 4.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.5% 6.1% 6.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.1%
8-10 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 1.5 0.6%
7-11 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 4.6 0.1%
6-12 11.0% 11.0
5-13 19.3% 19.3
4-14 24.9% 24.9
3-15 22.2% 22.2
2-16 12.4% 12.4
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.8 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%