Utah
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#55
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#142
Pace73.2#76
Improvement-0.2#204

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#56
First Shot-1.3#222
After Offensive Rebound+6.2#4
Layup/Dunks-2.2#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#37
Freethrows-2.0#280
Improvement-1.0#316

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#65
First Shot+4.8#53
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#218
Layups/Dunks+4.8#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#155
Freethrows-1.3#254
Improvement+0.8#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.7% 6.8% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.5% 30.1% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.8% 29.4% 11.4%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 66.2% 67.2% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 33.6% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 10.1% 18.1%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 2.3%
First Round27.5% 28.1% 10.0%
Second Round15.0% 15.3% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight1.8% 1.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 32 - 110 - 15
Quad 48 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 349   Alcorn St. W 100-59 98%     1 - 0 +25.1 +24.2 +3.3
  Nov 07, 2024 340   Central Arkansas W 98-63 98%     2 - 0 +20.3 +9.0 +8.0
  Nov 12, 2024 297   Queens W 96-65 95%     3 - 0 +20.8 +11.5 +6.7
  Nov 17, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 73-78 36%     3 - 1 +7.8 +4.4 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 304   Utah Tech W 87-67 97%    
  Nov 26, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 86-53 99.9%   
  Nov 30, 2024 243   Eastern Washington W 88-72 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 43   St. Mary's W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 14, 2024 226   Radford W 81-66 92%    
  Dec 17, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 86-60 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 41   Iowa L 80-82 42%    
  Dec 31, 2024 11   @ Baylor L 69-80 17%    
  Jan 04, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 07, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 15, 2025 61   @ TCU L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 34   BYU W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 21, 2025 4   @ Houston L 62-75 12%    
  Jan 25, 2025 11   Baylor L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 28, 2025 20   Cincinnati L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 68   Colorado W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 56   @ West Virginia L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 20   @ Cincinnati L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 6   Kansas L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 17, 2025 67   Kansas St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 71   @ Central Florida L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 26, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 76-85 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 70   Arizona St. W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   West Virginia W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 34   @ BYU L 75-81 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.4 2.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.0 0.2 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 5.9 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.5 10.7 12.1 12.4 11.4 10.4 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 90.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 70.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 40.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.3% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.4% 99.6% 5.7% 93.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 4.0% 96.9% 4.7% 92.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.8%
12-8 6.0% 90.8% 1.9% 88.9% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 90.6%
11-9 8.0% 77.0% 1.7% 75.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 1.8 76.6%
10-10 10.4% 54.0% 0.7% 53.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.1 4.8 53.7%
9-11 11.4% 24.7% 0.5% 24.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.2 8.6 24.3%
8-12 12.4% 6.9% 0.2% 6.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 11.6 6.7%
7-13 12.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.0 0.8%
6-14 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 10.7 0.0%
5-15 8.5% 8.5
4-16 5.8% 5.8
3-17 3.5% 3.5
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 29.5% 1.0% 28.5% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3 0.5 70.5 28.8%