Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Houston 99.1%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 4 15 - 3 +24.5      +10.9 8 +13.6 1 57.4 361 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 BYU 88.5%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +18.3      +12.3 3 +6.0 37 68.4 176 0.0 1 0.0 1
10 Arizona 85.8%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18.0      +11.0 7 +7.0 23 73.6 52 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Texas Tech 84.5%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +17.8      +10.4 13 +7.4 19 65.1 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Kansas 85.2%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +17.6      +8.2 26 +9.4 6 70.3 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 Iowa St. 76.6%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +16.5      +6.9 41 +9.6 4 70.5 110 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 Baylor 70.8%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +15.3      +8.8 23 +6.5 30 62.7 322 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 Cincinnati 45.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.0      +4.1 70 +7.9 15 65.1 268 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 TCU 30.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +9.8      +3.9 76 +5.9 42 66.5 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 Kansas St. 27.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +9.6      +4.2 69 +5.5 47 67.6 194 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 West Virginia 25.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +9.4      +3.8 78 +5.6 45 62.2 332 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 Arizona St. 21.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +8.3      +4.3 64 +4.0 71 70.8 105 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 Oklahoma St. 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 6 - 12 +7.8      +4.5 61 +3.3 82 77.1 16 0.0 1 0.0 1
74 Central Florida 17.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 6 - 12 +7.7      +4.5 62 +3.2 85 77.6 12 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 Colorado 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +6.7      +2.3 107 +4.4 64 68.6 160 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Utah 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 5 - 13 +5.9      +3.2 88 +2.7 98 70.9 98 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 2.2 52.2 19.9 10.5 6.6 4.0 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
BYU 4.7 14.6 15.8 14.4 12.1 9.9 8.5 6.5 5.3 3.9 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2
Arizona 4.8 13.3 15.5 14.1 11.8 10.0 8.5 6.7 5.5 4.4 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2
Texas Tech 5.1 11.7 13.0 12.9 12.4 10.7 9.3 7.5 6.1 5.0 3.6 2.9 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2
Kansas 5.1 12.9 14.4 13.3 11.3 10.2 8.7 7.2 5.5 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.2
Iowa St. 5.7 8.9 11.6 12.0 11.2 10.5 9.4 8.0 6.9 5.6 4.7 3.9 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.4
Baylor 6.7 6.1 8.2 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.7 8.8 7.7 7.4 6.2 5.1 4.2 3.1 2.4 1.6 0.9
Cincinnati 8.5 1.9 3.6 5.0 6.4 7.4 8.4 8.9 9.0 9.3 8.5 7.5 7.0 5.7 5.3 3.9 2.3
TCU 9.7 1.0 2.2 3.3 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.0 7.9 6.9 5.4
Kansas St. 9.9 0.8 1.9 3.0 4.2 5.2 6.5 6.9 7.3 8.4 8.7 9.0 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.3 5.7
West Virginia 9.9 0.8 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.2 6.2 7.1 7.6 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.2 5.4
Arizona St. 10.5 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.1 5.4 6.3 7.1 8.1 8.4 9.6 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.3 7.4
Oklahoma St. 11.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 9.9 10.8 11.0 10.2
Central Florida 10.9 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.5 7.9 8.6 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.6
Colorado 11.5 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.4 4.6 5.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 10.0 10.5 11.6 11.8 11.8
Utah 12.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.9 7.1 8.3 9.7 10.9 12.5 14.6 15.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.5 7.3 10.2 14.1 17.3 18.2 15.0 7.9
BYU 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.3 7.7 10.1 11.7 13.1 13.1 12.1 9.2 6.1 3.2 1.0
Arizona 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.9 5.6 8.3 10.0 11.7 13.0 13.1 11.4 8.9 5.8 2.7 0.7
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.3 6.8 8.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 12.5 10.6 7.4 4.4 2.2 0.5
Kansas 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.1 8.4 10.4 12.0 12.6 12.3 10.5 8.3 5.5 2.7 0.9
Iowa St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.8 7.7 10.1 11.4 12.5 12.4 11.0 9.0 6.3 3.8 1.7 0.4
Baylor 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.0 5.4 7.9 10.0 11.3 12.2 11.5 10.7 8.9 6.6 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2
Cincinnati 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.0 4.9 7.3 9.3 11.3 12.5 12.5 11.3 9.0 7.3 5.0 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
TCU 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.3 7.9 9.7 11.5 12.1 11.6 10.5 8.9 6.7 4.9 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.4 5.8 8.1 10.0 11.8 12.4 11.7 10.3 8.5 6.6 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.4 8.1 10.6 11.6 12.0 11.7 10.7 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 4.1 6.9 9.3 11.9 12.8 12.4 11.3 9.6 7.7 5.4 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6 - 12 1.0 2.9 5.7 8.8 11.3 12.1 12.8 11.6 10.2 8.4 6.1 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 6 - 12 0.8 2.7 5.3 8.2 10.8 12.2 12.8 11.6 10.5 8.3 6.7 4.3 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
Colorado 6 - 12 1.1 3.4 6.6 9.5 12.0 13.1 13.3 11.7 9.7 7.7 5.2 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah 5 - 13 1.7 4.7 8.6 12.1 13.7 13.8 12.5 10.4 8.3 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 52.2% 38.4 11.0 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
BYU 14.6% 8.4 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arizona 13.3% 7.4 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 11.7% 6.7 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kansas 12.9% 7.2 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 8.9% 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Baylor 6.1% 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 99.1% 39.3% 59.8% 1   44.7 24.0 11.8 7.1 4.4 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 98.5%
BYU 88.5% 11.4% 77.1% 3   11.2 12.6 12.6 11.7 9.9 8.3 7.1 5.7 4.2 3.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.5 87.0%
Arizona 85.8% 10.5% 75.2% 3   10.4 12.2 11.8 11.2 9.8 8.3 7.1 5.4 3.8 3.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 14.2 84.1%
Texas Tech 84.5% 9.8% 74.6% 4   9.4 11.0 11.4 11.4 9.7 8.3 7.1 5.6 4.5 3.9 2.3 0.1 15.5 82.8%
Kansas 85.2% 9.8% 75.4% 3   10.6 12.3 12.7 11.3 9.8 8.1 6.1 4.4 3.7 3.6 2.4 0.1 14.8 83.6%
Iowa St. 76.6% 7.3% 69.3% 6   5.3 7.1 8.4 9.2 9.1 8.5 8.3 7.4 5.7 5.2 2.5 0.1 23.4 74.8%
Baylor 70.8% 5.7% 65.1% 6   3.9 6.0 7.5 8.2 8.3 8.2 7.9 6.7 5.4 5.4 3.2 0.1 29.2 69.0%
Cincinnati 45.7% 1.8% 43.8% 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.5 6.8 6.8 7.0 3.5 0.1 54.3 44.6%
TCU 30.0% 0.9% 29.1% 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.6 5.0 5.9 3.3 0.1 70.0 29.3%
Kansas St. 27.6% 0.9% 26.8% 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.3 4.6 5.2 2.9 0.1 72.4 27.0%
West Virginia 25.9% 0.7% 25.2% 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.7 5.6 2.9 0.1 74.1 25.4%
Arizona St. 21.5% 0.5% 21.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.4 3.2 3.6 4.2 2.9 0.1 0.0 78.5 21.1%
Oklahoma St. 18.9% 0.4% 18.5% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.4 4.5 2.5 0.0 81.1 18.6%
Central Florida 17.9% 0.5% 17.4% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.1 4.4 2.3 0.1 82.1 17.5%
Colorado 13.7% 0.2% 13.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.7 2.4 0.1 86.3 13.5%
Utah 10.6% 0.2% 10.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.6 1.6 0.1 89.4 10.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 99.1% 0.4% 98.9% 95.4% 76.3% 55.2% 37.1% 24.2% 15.1%
BYU 88.5% 2.8% 87.1% 72.7% 43.4% 22.8% 11.3% 5.5% 2.7%
Arizona 85.8% 3.5% 84.2% 69.7% 41.1% 21.7% 10.8% 5.1% 2.5%
Texas Tech 84.5% 3.6% 82.8% 68.0% 39.9% 20.2% 10.0% 4.9% 2.3%
Kansas 85.2% 3.9% 83.4% 69.2% 40.4% 20.3% 10.0% 4.8% 2.2%
Iowa St. 76.6% 4.3% 74.6% 57.4% 30.9% 14.8% 6.8% 3.1% 1.4%
Baylor 70.8% 5.2% 68.3% 51.2% 25.8% 11.9% 5.4% 2.3% 1.0%
Cincinnati 45.7% 6.0% 42.8% 26.8% 10.2% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
TCU 30.0% 5.4% 27.4% 15.3% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Kansas St. 27.6% 4.8% 25.2% 14.1% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
West Virginia 25.9% 4.9% 23.2% 12.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Arizona St. 21.5% 4.5% 19.2% 10.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 18.9% 4.2% 16.6% 8.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Central Florida 17.9% 4.1% 15.7% 8.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado 13.7% 3.9% 11.6% 5.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 10.6% 2.7% 9.2% 4.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 8.1 23.5 32.9 23.4 8.6 1.8 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.0 0.3 2.7 12.2 28.1 32.1 18.4 5.3 0.9 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.3 2.3 10.1 24.9 31.6 21.0 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.3 0.4 5.1 18.8 32.8 27.7 12.2 2.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 92.0% 1.8 8.0 31.7 37.9 18.2 3.8 0.4 0.0
Final Four 70.8% 1.0 29.2 48.7 19.6 2.5 0.1
Final Game 46.4% 0.5 53.6 41.5 5.0
Champion 27.6% 0.3 72.4 27.6