Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#157
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#107
Pace70.8#150
Improvement-0.6#227

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#156
First Shot+1.6#135
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#259
Layup/Dunks+0.5#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#145
Freethrows-0.2#192
Improvement+0.2#166

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#182
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#244
Layups/Dunks-4.8#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#16
Freethrows+0.0#179
Improvement-0.7#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 24.6% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.1 13.9
.500 or above 86.8% 96.7% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 85.5% 74.1%
Conference Champion 21.6% 33.0% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.4% 4.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round15.9% 24.6% 15.4%
Second Round0.9% 2.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 5.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 311 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 69%     1 - 0 +1.6 +1.1 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 21 169 St. Thomas L 72-73 52%     1 - 1 -1.8 -4.3 +2.5
  Sat, Nov 22 275 @Portland W 86-80 OT 60%     2 - 1 +3.0 +0.4 +1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 77%     3 - 1 -4.0 +7.1 -11.6
  Wed, Nov 26 331 @Air Force W 71-53 74%     4 - 1 +10.8 +6.3 +7.2
  Wed, Dec 3 233 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 53%     5 - 1 +3.8 +4.2 -0.1
  Sat, Dec 6 270 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 79%     6 - 1 -6.7 +3.1 -9.9
  Tue, Dec 16 29 @Texas Tech L 66-83 5%    
  Sat, Dec 20 294 Denver W 84-74 83%    
  Sun, Dec 28 63 @Colorado L 73-85 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 164 @Montana St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 3 206 @Montana L 78-79 48%    
  Thu, Jan 8 168 Idaho St. W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 195 Weber St. W 79-74 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 171 @Portland St. L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 278 @Sacramento St. W 79-76 60%    
  Mon, Jan 19 164 Montana St. W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 251 @Northern Arizona W 75-73 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 173 Idaho W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 234 Eastern Washington W 82-75 73%    
  Thu, Feb 5 195 @Weber St. L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 168 @Idaho St. L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 278 Sacramento St. W 82-73 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 171 Portland St. W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 251 Northern Arizona W 78-70 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 234 @Eastern Washington W 79-78 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 @Idaho L 74-76 42%    
  Mon, Mar 2 206 Montana W 81-76 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.6 5.6 4.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 21.6 1st
2nd 0.6 4.1 6.2 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.8 5.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.8 9.1 11.9 13.0 13.1 12.0 10.2 6.9 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 99.8% 2.1    2.1 0.1
15-3 94.8% 4.3    3.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 80.2% 5.6    4.0 1.4 0.1
13-5 54.2% 5.6    2.7 2.3 0.6 0.1
12-6 22.3% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 14.1 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 50.7% 50.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.2% 41.1% 41.1% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.5% 36.6% 36.6% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.9
14-4 6.9% 31.2% 31.2% 13.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 4.8
13-5 10.2% 24.7% 24.7% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.7
12-6 12.0% 21.4% 21.4% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 9.4
11-7 13.1% 15.6% 15.6% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 11.0
10-8 13.0% 12.4% 12.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 11.4
9-9 11.9% 9.8% 9.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 10.7
8-10 9.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.6
7-11 6.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.5
6-12 4.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.4
5-13 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 6.0 3.4 0.7 84.0 0.0%