Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #226
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #141
Pace 64.6 #292
Improvement -2.0 #273

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #293 D- D C F C-
Defense #143 C D- C C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #355 1.00 #339 -7.8 #359
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.84 #65 +0.2 #167
Three Pointers 52% #15 0.91 #304 +2.9 #89
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #309 -4.7 #311
Freethrows 13.5 #345 66% #348 8.8 #361
Second Chance 22.9% #347 1.13 #76 0.26 #304
Turnovers 16.2% #160
Total Offense -4.5 #293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #343 1.33 #347 +2.2 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.72 #121 -0.5 #218
Three Pointers 47% #44 0.96 #103 -1.5 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #174 +0.2 #172
Freethrows 19.6 #286 69% #58 13.6 #245
Second Chance 41.2% #365 0.92 #38 0.38 #316
Turnovers 16.2% #200
Total Defense +0.7 #143

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #247 -1.8% #50
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #312 1.4% #208
Possession Length 20.9 #364 18.6 #336
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #357 0.23 #332
Improvement -2.5 #313 +0.5 #156

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 27.7% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
Conference Champion 56.8% 67.3% 42.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round23.8% 27.1% 19.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 12 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 418 - 620 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 114 @UNLV W 86 - 81 17% -18  1 - 0 +11 +5 F C- C +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 119 @Bradley W 78 - 67 18% -9  2 - 0 +17 +5 A+ C- F +12 A+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 18 111 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 16% -19  2 - 1 -7 -2 B+ D+ F -4 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 317 Prairie View W 69 - 68 71% -6  3 - 1 -9 -7 F F F -1 A- C- B+
 Sun, Nov 23 244 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 53% -17  3 - 2 -15 +2 B F C+ -19 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 234 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 62% -7  4 - 2 +10 +2 C F F +9 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 311 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 77% -12  5 - 2 -2 -0 F F F -1 F A+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 146 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 23% -15  5 - 3 -25 -14 F F F -11 F D- B+
 Thu, Dec 18 241 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 41% -15  5 - 4 0 - 1 -8 -4 F F F -5 F B C
 Sat, Dec 20 342 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 68% -7  6 - 4 1 - 1 +15 +19 A F B -1 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 1 356 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 89% -15  7 - 4 2 - 1 -10 -5 F F B- -4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 310 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 77% -8  8 - 4 3 - 1 -8 -6 F C+ F -1 B- A C
 Thu, Jan 8 302 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 55% -15  9 - 4 4 - 1 +3 +9 D- C F -5 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 329 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 64% -17  10 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +9 C F F +3 A- F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 257 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 66% -9  11 - 4 6 - 1 -2 -2 F F F +0 B+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 237 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 63% +4  12 - 4 7 - 1 +7 -6 D+ C- F +13 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 42% -20  12 - 5 7 - 2 -18 -17 F F F -2 C+ D- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 310 @Eastern Illinois W 64 - 62 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 356 @Western Illinois W 68 - 61 75%
 Tue, Feb 3 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 71 - 65 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 329 Southern Indiana W 71 - 61 82%
 Sat, Feb 7 302 Morehead St. W 72 - 65 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 237 @Lindenwood L 70 - 73 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 65 44%
 Tue, Feb 17 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 67 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68 - 69 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 342 Tennessee Tech W 74 - 63 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 241 Tennessee St. W 75 - 71 63%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 -4 -4 D- D C +1 C D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.1 13.3 19.0 14.0 5.9 1.4 56.8 1st
2nd 1.2 8.1 7.8 1.8 0.1 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.1 5.2 0.6 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.2 0.8 6.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 1.4 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.3 11.1 17.2 21.8 20.8 14.1 5.9 1.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-3 100.0% 5.9    5.9 0.0
16-4 99.2% 14.0    13.2 0.8
15-5 91.4% 19.0    13.8 4.9 0.3
14-6 61.3% 13.3    4.5 6.3 2.3 0.3
13-7 17.8% 3.1    0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 56.8% 56.8 39.0 12.8 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.4% 40.7% 40.7% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-3 5.9% 39.5% 39.5% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.0 3.6
16-4 14.1% 35.9% 35.9% 14.7 0.1 1.3 3.3 0.3 9.0
15-5 20.8% 32.6% 32.6% 15.1 0.0 0.9 4.4 1.4 14.0
14-6 21.8% 25.7% 25.7% 15.4 0.3 3.0 2.3 16.2
13-7 17.2% 15.7% 15.7% 15.5 0.0 1.2 1.5 14.5
12-8 11.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 10.1
11-9 5.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 5.1
10-10 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-11 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 15.0 75.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.2 10.9 62.7 23.6 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%