Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#45
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#52
Pace77.8#27
Improvement-1.0#258

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#69
First Shot+5.1#53
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#190
Layup/Dunks+7.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#107
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement-0.7#238

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#35
First Shot+2.3#100
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#12
Layups/Dunks+5.8#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows-2.2#306
Improvement-0.3#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.4% 37.6% 22.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.1% 18.3% 7.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 97.3% 93.8%
Conference Champion 33.6% 33.8% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.4% 6.4% 4.1%
First Round34.6% 34.8% 21.1%
Second Round15.6% 15.7% 8.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.1% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 25 - 37 - 5
Quad 37 - 114 - 6
Quad 412 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 94%     1 - 0 +18.4 +8.3 +7.8
  Thu, Nov 6 352 Chicago St. W 108-86 98%     2 - 0 +6.2 +6.8 -4.6
  Mon, Nov 10 236 Lindenwood W 109-66 95%     3 - 0 +35.7 +19.2 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 99 Grand Canyon W 78-64 80%     4 - 0 +16.2 +3.3 +12.0
  Fri, Nov 21 238 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 95%     5 - 0 +23.6 +12.6 +10.9
  Thu, Nov 27 75 Santa Clara W 71-70 63%     6 - 0 +8.6 -0.1 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 28 85 Stanford L 77-78 67%     6 - 1 +5.4 +5.1 +0.4
  Tue, Dec 2 140 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 73%     7 - 1 +25.4 +14.8 +8.7
  Sun, Dec 7 309 Central Michigan W 87-65 98%    
  Sat, Dec 13 100 San Francisco W 81-72 80%    
  Wed, Dec 17 220 Bethune-Cookman W 85-67 95%    
  Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire W 87-62 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 178 Saint Joseph's W 84-69 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 42 @Virginia Commonwealth L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 225 @La Salle W 80-68 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 229 Fordham W 82-64 95%    
  Sat, Jan 17 105 Richmond W 84-74 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 133 @Duquesne W 85-79 71%    
  Fri, Jan 23 108 @St. Bonaventure W 76-72 64%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 George Washington W 87-83 65%    
  Fri, Jan 30 70 Dayton W 80-74 70%    
  Tue, Feb 3 138 @Davidson W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 225 La Salle W 83-65 94%    
  Fri, Feb 13 260 @Loyola Chicago W 82-69 89%    
  Tue, Feb 17 116 @Rhode Island W 79-74 66%    
  Fri, Feb 20 42 Virginia Commonwealth W 79-77 58%    
  Tue, Feb 24 70 @Dayton L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 133 Duquesne W 88-76 86%    
  Wed, Mar 4 260 Loyola Chicago W 85-66 96%    
  Sat, Mar 7 74 @George Mason W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.9 10.6 9.3 5.0 1.2 33.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.1 8.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.8 2.1 0.2 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.0 1.5 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 6.2 9.6 13.4 17.0 16.5 14.8 10.0 5.0 1.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.7% 5.0    4.8 0.2
16-2 93.4% 9.3    7.8 1.5 0.1
15-3 71.5% 10.6    6.3 3.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 35.5% 5.9    1.8 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.1% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 22.1 8.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 96.8% 50.4% 46.4% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.5%
17-1 5.0% 90.1% 45.0% 45.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 82.0%
16-2 10.0% 76.2% 38.5% 37.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.0 2.4 61.3%
15-3 14.8% 58.4% 33.1% 25.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 3.5 0.1 6.2 37.8%
14-4 16.5% 40.1% 26.7% 13.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 0.3 9.9 18.2%
13-5 17.0% 27.4% 21.7% 5.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 0.4 12.4 7.3%
12-6 13.4% 17.9% 15.8% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 11.0 2.4%
11-7 9.6% 10.1% 9.6% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.6 0.5%
10-8 6.2% 8.2% 7.9% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.7 0.3%
9-9 3.4% 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 0.1%
8-10 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.4% 23.5% 13.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.7 4.3 8.1 15.1 2.0 0.0 62.6 18.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 3.4 5.5 12.7 37.0 30.9 9.7 3.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 97.0% 5.6 3.0 3.0 22.4 23.9 16.4 11.9 10.4 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 93.1% 5.9 5.2 13.8 17.2 27.6 15.5 8.6 3.4 1.7