Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 #28
Expected Predictive Rating +17.8 #18
Pace 76.1 #31
Improvement -1.4 #252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #46 A+ C+ C+ C A+
Defense #25 A+ A D+ D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.31 #42 +8.0 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% #365 0.78 #137 -5.3 #362
Three Pointers 47% #59 1.21 #7 +7.7 #11
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #2 +10.4 #2
Freethrows 17.2 #213 76% #75 13.0 #164
Second Chance 34.3% #78 1.00 #243 0.34 #123
Turnovers 15.8% #138
Total Offense +7.3 #46

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #295 0.97 #16 +5.6 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #68 0.69 #88 -0.7 #231
Three Pointers 41% #176 0.87 #27 +3.0 #67
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #12 +8.0 #12
Freethrows 19.6 #287 73% #248 14.4 #294
Second Chance 25.5% #27 0.93 #48 0.24 #19
Turnovers 15.1% #264
Total Defense +7.2 #25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.7% #3 -1.5% #63
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.0% #11 -14.2% #11
Possession Length 14.7 #10 18.1 #302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #7 0.17 #169
Improvement -1.2 #252 -0.2 #200

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 5.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 14.9% 17.2% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.3% 84.8% 75.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.0% 70.4% 57.8%
Average Seed 8.4 8.2 9.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 86.9% 89.6% 73.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.8% 7.0% 11.8%
First Round80.0% 81.9% 70.8%
Second Round44.9% 46.8% 35.6%
Sweet Sixteen13.3% 14.0% 9.6%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.3% 3.6%
Final Four1.7% 1.7% 1.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 26 - 28 - 3
Quad 310 - 118 - 4
Quad 411 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 97% +10  1 - 0 +17 +9 B+ C- D +6 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 357 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  2 - 0 +5 +7 A+ F C+ -7 C+ D- C
 Mon, Nov 10 237 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 97% +22  3 - 0 +36 +20 A+ A+ F +10 C C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 79 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 83% +11  4 - 0 +18 +5 A+ C F +12 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 96% +19  5 - 0 +25 +14 A+ C- F +10 A+ B- C+
 Thu, Nov 27 54 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 65% -3  6 - 0 +11 +2 B F A+ +10 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 77 Stanford L 77 - 78 75% +6  6 - 1 +7 +6 F A+ A+ +1 A A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 155 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 85% +12  7 - 1 +24 +15 A+ A+ F +8 A B+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 322 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 99% +23  8 - 1 +29 +29 A+ A+ A+ +1 C- B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 101 San Francisco W 85 - 75 88% +1  9 - 1 +12 +12 A+ C- C+ -1 B A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 269 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 98% +31  10 - 1 +50 +24 A+ A+ D+ +20 A+ A- C
 Sun, Dec 21 323 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  11 - 1 +1 +11 B+ C A -11 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 159 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 94% +12  12 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +38 A+ D+ A+ -16 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 55 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 55% +6  13 - 1 2 - 0 +22 -3 D+ F B +25 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 197 @La Salle W 84 - 72 90% +12  14 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +15 A+ D F -2 B+ A F
 Wed, Jan 14 193 Fordham W 78 - 56 96% +12  15 - 1 4 - 0 +17 +16 A+ A- A+ +4 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 120 Richmond W 88 - 63 91% +19  16 - 1 5 - 0 +25 +15 A+ D+ A+ +10 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 20 118 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 80% +5  17 - 1 6 - 0 +10 +3 B- A- F +6 A+ D C
 Fri, Jan 23 136 @St. Bonaventure W 83 - 73 83%
 Tue, Jan 27 72 George Washington W 89 - 79 82%
 Fri, Jan 30 73 Dayton W 80 - 70 82%
 Tue, Feb 3 137 @Davidson W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 197 La Salle W 85 - 65 97%
 Fri, Feb 13 268 @Loyola Chicago W 87 - 69 95%
 Tue, Feb 17 122 @Rhode Island W 79 - 70 80%
 Fri, Feb 20 55 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 78 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 73 @Dayton W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 118 Duquesne W 90 - 75 91%
 Wed, Mar 4 268 Loyola Chicago W 90 - 66 98%
 Sat, Mar 7 86 @George Mason W 77 - 73 66%
Totals 27 - 3 16 - 2 +15 +7 A+ C+ C+ +7 A+ A D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.9 16.0 27.3 26.0 12.1 86.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.9 9.7 18.9 27.9 26.1 12.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 12.1    12.1
17-1 99.8% 26.0    25.6 0.4
16-2 97.6% 27.3    24.4 2.9 0.0
15-3 84.8% 16.0    10.7 4.8 0.4
14-4 50.2% 4.9    1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1
13-5 16.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 86.9% 86.9 74.7 10.5 1.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 12.1% 97.6% 60.1% 37.5% 5.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.9%
17-1 26.1% 93.2% 53.3% 39.9% 7.7 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.6 5.6 5.7 4.8 2.4 0.3 1.8 85.4%
16-2 27.9% 86.1% 48.2% 37.8% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.9 7.0 6.7 2.3 0.0 3.9 73.1%
15-3 18.9% 74.8% 40.8% 33.9% 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 5.4 3.5 4.8 57.4%
14-4 9.7% 65.8% 37.4% 28.4% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.7 0.0 3.3 45.3%
13-5 3.9% 53.1% 33.9% 19.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.8 29.1%
12-6 1.1% 41.0% 27.5% 13.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.7 18.6%
11-7 0.3% 26.4% 22.6% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4.9%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 83.3% 47.7% 35.6% 8.4 16.7 68.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 100.0% 4.5 1.4 4.7 14.5 32.4 26.5 14.6 4.8 0.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 95.1% 6.7 0.5 3.8 9.9 26.4 29.7 17.0 5.8 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 94.4% 6.9 0.5 2.1 10.1 20.7 30.9 19.4 8.5 2.1