Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
88 High Point 45.9%   12   1 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 5 13 - 3 +5.7      +5.3 51 +0.4 151 66.1 243 +12.3 12 0.0 1
153 Winthrop 15.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 -0.1      +0.5 148 -0.6 185 79.8 6 +8.5 22 0.0 1
160 Radford 14.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 -0.5      +2.4 104 -2.8 274 59.7 359 -0.2 272 0.0 1
179 UNC Asheville 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 7 -1.4      +0.8 140 -2.2 248 69.1 163 0.0 121 0.0 1
212 Longwood 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 -2.7      -0.7 185 -1.9 233 71.4 102 0.0 121 0.0 1
308 Presbyterian 1.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -7.7      -4.3 307 -3.4 295 62.6 327 -16.8 359 0.0 1
318 Gardner-Webb 1.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 7 - 19 4 - 10 -8.8      -5.2 322 -3.6 301 71.9 86 -2.4 296 0.0 1
320 Charleston Southern 1.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 17 4 - 10 -8.9      -5.3 325 -3.6 303 69.3 156 -2.3 292 0.0 1
330 South Carolina Upstate 1.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -9.8      -4.2 301 -5.6 344 79.9 5 -11.8 345 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
High Point 1.7 62.3 20.3 9.6 4.6 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Winthrop 3.2 16.9 24.2 20.4 16.0 11.0 6.3 3.1 1.5 0.7
Radford 3.3 15.8 22.6 20.4 16.8 11.8 6.4 3.6 1.9 0.7
UNC Asheville 3.7 12.8 18.6 19.2 17.2 14.0 8.8 5.1 2.7 1.6
Longwood 4.1 8.9 14.9 17.8 18.1 16.2 11.2 6.8 3.9 2.2
Presbyterian 6.0 1.5 3.8 6.7 11.0 15.5 19.8 17.3 13.5 10.9
Gardner-Webb 7.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.9 9.0 14.7 20.9 25.3 21.8
Charleston Southern 7.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.0 9.2 14.8 21.3 24.6 21.4
South Carolina Upstate 6.7 0.6 2.0 4.0 7.3 11.5 17.0 19.7 18.8 19.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
High Point 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 10.1 14.1 17.4 19.4 16.1 8.6
Winthrop 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.8 5.0 8.1 9.8 12.5 14.0 14.2 12.5 9.5 5.9 2.7 0.6
Radford 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.1 5.5 7.9 10.7 13.2 13.6 13.6 12.5 8.9 5.1 2.3 0.5
UNC Asheville 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.8 7.2 9.8 11.5 13.0 13.0 12.1 9.9 7.2 3.8 1.8 0.4
Longwood 9 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 4.2 6.3 9.2 11.2 12.7 12.9 12.7 10.2 7.7 5.1 2.7 1.0 0.3
Presbyterian 6 - 10 0.8 3.0 5.9 9.4 12.7 14.2 14.2 12.4 9.9 7.3 4.8 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Gardner-Webb 4 - 12 2.8 8.1 13.2 16.2 16.9 15.1 11.1 7.8 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 4 - 12 2.9 7.7 13.0 16.0 16.6 14.7 11.5 8.3 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 11 2.1 5.9 10.6 13.6 15.2 14.3 12.4 9.6 7.0 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
High Point 62.3% 50.0 10.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
Winthrop 16.9% 10.4 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Radford 15.8% 9.4 5.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
UNC Asheville 12.8% 7.5 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
Longwood 8.9% 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Presbyterian 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.6% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
High Point 45.9% 45.6% 0.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 9.4 16.9 10.2 4.5 1.3 0.4 54.1 0.5%
Winthrop 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.7 3.5 2.0 1.0 85.0 0.0%
Radford 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.6 3.8 2.6 1.5 86.0 0.0%
UNC Asheville 11.6% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.6 88.5 0.0%
Longwood 8.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 91.3 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 98.2 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 98.9 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 98.8 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
High Point 45.9% 0.3% 45.8% 8.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 15.0% 0.5% 15.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 14.0% 0.7% 14.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 11.6% 0.9% 11.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 8.8% 0.8% 8.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.8% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 96.2 1.6
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0