Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 Kent St. 32.5%   14   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 5 +3.3      -0.9 198 +4.3 70 62.7 331 +8.5 70 0.0 1
146 Akron 18.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +0.6      +2.2 118 -1.6 217 75.8 33 +0.6 160 0.0 1
161 Ohio 14.7%   4 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -0.1      +2.1 120 -2.2 247 72.1 92 -3.2 225 0.0 1
195 Miami (OH) 10.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -1.6      -1.9 228 +0.3 161 68.2 202 +3.3 118 0.0 1
206 Toledo 8.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2.3      +2.9 99 -5.2 331 72.5 84 +0.5 162 0.0 1
219 Central Michigan 7.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 8 -2.8      -3.5 273 +0.6 146 73.2 73 -1.5 188 0.0 1
265 Bowling Green 2.7%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -5.7      -1.7 220 -4.0 296 71.5 103 -8.6 308 0.0 1
285 Ball St. 1.8%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6.7      -2.6 242 -4.0 297 66.5 248 -9.8 318 0.0 1
295 Western Michigan 1.6%   2 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.0      -2.5 239 -4.5 309 67.8 215 -9.9 319 0.0 1
317 Eastern Michigan 0.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -8.8      -4.0 287 -4.8 322 68.8 186 -4.8 253 0.0 1
324 Buffalo 0.7%   3 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -9.2      -4.6 308 -4.6 315 71.5 105 -5.0 256 0.0 1
344 Northern Illinois 0.2%   1 - 7 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -11.4      -6.9 349 -4.5 310 71.0 120 -11.9 333 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 2.3 46.7 21.2 12.4 8.0 4.9 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Akron 3.4 24.6 20.4 15.6 12.2 9.1 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2
Ohio 4.0 15.9 16.8 15.9 13.6 11.7 9.0 7.0 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3
Miami (OH) 4.2 13.7 15.8 16.1 14.1 12.0 9.4 7.4 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5
Toledo 5.0 8.4 11.3 13.0 13.6 13.1 11.7 9.9 7.5 5.4 3.4 1.9 0.8
Central Michigan 4.9 10.0 13.1 13.6 13.2 12.2 10.5 9.0 7.1 5.0 3.3 2.2 1.0
Bowling Green 6.6 2.8 5.1 7.5 9.7 11.1 12.7 12.4 12.0 10.0 7.8 5.7 3.3
Ball St. 7.4 1.4 3.3 5.0 7.0 8.8 10.7 12.4 13.5 12.9 11.1 8.5 5.3
Western Michigan 7.7 1.1 2.4 4.0 5.9 7.9 9.9 11.7 13.8 14.3 12.8 10.0 6.3
Eastern Michigan 9.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 6.3 8.6 11.4 14.5 17.1 17.0 14.7
Buffalo 9.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.8 4.2 5.8 8.1 10.5 13.2 16.3 18.9 17.0
Northern Illinois 9.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.5 8.1 11.5 15.8 21.6 29.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.8 8.9 12.4 15.5 16.4 15.8 11.5 6.1 1.7
Akron 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.9 7.5 10.5 13.1 14.6 14.6 12.6 9.0 5.2 2.2 0.5
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 10.1 13.2 14.8 14.4 12.7 9.4 5.8 2.7 1.0 0.1
Miami (OH) 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.8 7.8 11.0 13.1 14.7 14.3 11.9 8.9 5.2 2.4 0.8 0.2
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.8 7.6 10.8 13.1 14.8 13.7 12.0 8.8 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Central Michigan 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.2 9.8 11.9 13.5 13.5 12.0 9.9 6.8 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.9 10.0 12.5 13.8 14.0 12.7 9.5 6.7 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 6.6 9.7 12.6 14.1 14.1 12.5 10.0 6.9 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.1 7.7 11.2 13.9 14.8 13.7 11.5 8.9 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.0 9.3 12.9 15.0 15.3 13.2 10.6 7.4 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 6 - 12 0.8 2.9 6.2 9.9 13.4 14.9 14.3 12.2 9.6 6.8 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 1.4 5.2 10.0 14.5 16.3 15.6 13.1 9.8 6.4 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 46.7% 33.9 10.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Akron 24.6% 15.8 6.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio 15.9% 9.2 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 13.7% 7.7 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Toledo 8.4% 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Central Michigan 10.0% 5.3 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 2.8% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 32.5% 32.5% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.3 13.1 7.4 1.7 0.1 67.5 0.0%
Akron 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.1 6.2 4.1 0.9 81.6 0.0%
Ohio 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.7 4.8 1.9 85.3 0.0%
Miami (OH) 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.7 3.7 2.7 0.7 89.3 0.0%
Toledo 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.0 1.1 92.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.3 92.1 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 97.3 0.0%
Ball St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 98.2 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 98.4 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%
Buffalo 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 32.5% 0.0% 32.5% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 18.4% 0.2% 18.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 14.7% 0.7% 14.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 10.7% 0.2% 10.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 8.0% 0.4% 7.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 7.9% 0.6% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.7% 1.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 97.3 0.0
2nd Round 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0