Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 Kent St. 25.4%   13   1 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 5 +3.0      +1.3 139 +1.7 118 65.0 306 +12.0 31 0.0 1
135 Akron 18.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 6 +1.5      -0.6 185 +2.0 108 71.1 124 -4.0 257 0.0 1
149 Toledo 16.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      +3.6 82 -2.6 251 72.1 103 +4.9 102 0.0 1
158 Ohio 14.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 +0.5      +3.8 76 -3.3 280 68.1 215 -3.5 251 0.0 1
201 Central Michigan 6.7%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -2.3      -3.3 276 +0.9 139 67.1 253 +4.2 112 0.0 1
213 Miami (OH) 5.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -2.9      -1.6 216 -1.3 210 68.1 214 -1.4 222 0.0 1
224 Ball St. 5.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -3.2      -1.5 210 -1.7 229 66.5 263 -10.0 317 0.0 1
270 Bowling Green 2.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -5.7      -2.3 241 -3.5 283 71.3 121 -13.9 340 0.0 1
294 Northern Illinois 1.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.9      -4.1 296 -2.9 258 70.0 162 -4.2 260 0.0 1
298 Eastern Michigan 1.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -7.0      -4.6 311 -2.4 246 64.1 326 -8.9 307 0.0 1
311 Western Michigan 1.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8.1      -4.5 306 -3.6 295 70.3 150 -12.5 329 0.0 1
315 Buffalo 1.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.5      -3.2 275 -5.2 340 73.8 71 +3.3 130 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 3.0 34.9 19.8 13.5 9.7 7.3 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2
Akron 3.8 22.8 18.2 13.8 11.6 9.3 7.5 5.6 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.5
Toledo 3.9 20.3 17.1 14.7 12.4 10.0 7.7 6.3 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.3 0.5
Ohio 4.3 17.3 15.6 14.1 12.3 10.3 9.2 6.8 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.7
Central Michigan 5.3 8.4 11.3 12.0 11.9 11.8 10.9 9.5 7.8 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.8
Miami (OH) 5.7 7.2 9.5 10.4 11.5 11.7 10.9 10.1 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.0 2.5
Ball St. 6.0 6.1 8.2 9.8 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.2 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.1
Bowling Green 7.3 2.9 4.5 6.1 7.3 8.5 9.7 11.0 11.2 11.0 10.5 9.5 8.0
Northern Illinois 8.0 1.5 2.8 4.4 5.7 6.9 8.4 9.8 11.4 12.4 12.9 12.9 10.9
Eastern Michigan 8.4 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.8 5.7 6.9 8.7 10.6 12.2 13.9 15.1 14.6
Western Michigan 8.7 0.8 1.7 2.9 3.9 5.1 6.6 8.5 10.8 12.6 15.1 15.9 16.1
Buffalo 9.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 7.3 9.3 11.9 15.1 17.6 20.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.9 5.8 8.1 10.6 12.4 13.6 13.5 11.5 9.0 5.1 1.6
Akron 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.1 6.2 8.1 10.6 12.1 13.2 12.5 10.7 8.4 5.2 2.7 0.7
Toledo 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.5 8.8 11.0 12.8 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.5 4.4 2.0 0.4
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.4 7.6 9.8 11.8 13.0 12.7 11.3 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.4
Central Michigan 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.0 8.3 10.8 12.1 12.9 12.3 10.5 8.7 5.7 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Miami (OH) 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.6 7.1 9.3 11.2 12.6 12.5 11.5 9.3 7.3 4.9 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.0
Ball St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.6 8.2 10.4 11.9 12.0 11.9 10.5 8.6 6.4 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
Bowling Green 8 - 10 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.6 7.2 9.4 11.0 11.8 12.5 11.2 9.3 7.3 5.2 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 4.0 6.6 9.4 11.6 12.4 12.6 11.5 9.6 7.4 5.6 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 0.8 2.9 5.5 8.5 10.7 12.0 12.4 11.9 10.4 8.1 6.4 4.5 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 0.9 2.8 5.9 9.0 11.7 13.2 13.1 12.2 10.1 7.6 5.7 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 6 - 12 1.5 4.2 7.7 10.6 12.3 13.6 12.6 10.9 8.7 6.8 4.6 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 34.9% 25.0 7.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Akron 22.8% 15.4 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Toledo 20.3% 13.1 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio 17.3% 11.0 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 8.4% 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Miami (OH) 7.2% 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 6.1% 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 2.9% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 25.4% 25.3% 0.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 7.3 8.0 5.3 2.0 0.3 74.6 0.3%
Akron 18.4% 18.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.0 5.1 5.0 3.3 1.2 81.6 0.1%
Toledo 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 4.8 2.6 0.6 84.0 0.0%
Ohio 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 1.1 85.9 0.0%
Central Michigan 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 0.7 93.4 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.8 94.3 0.0%
Ball St. 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.5 94.3 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 97.3 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 98.2 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 98.3 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.9 0.0%
Buffalo 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 25.4% 0.2% 25.4% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 18.4% 0.6% 18.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 16.0% 0.2% 15.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 14.1% 0.4% 13.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 6.7% 0.4% 6.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.7% 0.3% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 5.7% 0.6% 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.7% 0.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 97.9% 1.0 2.1 97.7 0.2
2nd Round 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0