Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
124 Akron 27.6%   15   10 - 5 5 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2.5      +1.8 131 +0.7 141 76.0 27 +2.6 123 +10.9 2
147 Ohio 19.4%   9 - 7 4 - 1 18 - 12 13 - 5 +1.1      +1.7 134 -0.5 191 74.2 54 -0.6 183 +4.5 4
153 Miami (OH) 18.8%   11 - 4 5 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 4 +0.8      +0.9 150 -0.1 177 69.9 141 +4.5 101 +12.0 1
159 Kent St. 14.0%   9 - 6 2 - 3 17 - 12 10 - 8 +0.3      -3.6 269 +3.9 76 65.4 257 -0.4 178 -10.2 10
194 Toledo 10.1%   9 - 7 4 - 1 17 - 13 12 - 6 -1.6      +3.0 102 -4.5 306 72.9 74 +1.6 140 +4.9 3
225 Central Michigan 4.7%   4 - 9 2 - 3 12 - 15 9 - 9 -3.7      -3.8 274 +0.1 168 65.7 250 -3.6 228 -6.4 7
250 Ball St. 2.8%   5 - 9 2 - 3 12 - 16 9 - 9 -5.0      -0.9 201 -4.1 295 66.5 233 -7.7 292 -4.4 5
285 Bowling Green 1.2%   5 - 10 2 - 3 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7.1      -3.9 279 -3.2 270 72.1 90 -9.1 306 -9.1 8
304 Western Michigan 0.8%   3 - 13 1 - 4 9 - 21 6 - 12 -7.9      -2.9 251 -5.0 322 70.3 134 -12.6 336 -14.0 11
313 Eastern Michigan 0.5%   7 - 9 2 - 3 12 - 18 6 - 12 -8.7      -3.5 268 -5.1 325 70.2 136 -3.8 233 -6.1 6
329 Buffalo 0.1%   4 - 11 1 - 4 8 - 21 5 - 13 -10.5      -6.3 329 -4.2 297 74.4 49 -7.1 279 -9.6 9
356 Northern Illinois 0.0%   1 - 13 0 - 5 4 - 24 3 - 15 -13.8      -8.2 351 -5.6 334 72.7 78 -16.3 354 -18.9 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Akron 1.7 54.6 27.1 11.2 4.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ohio 3.0 18.7 23.6 24.9 16.7 9.2 4.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Miami (OH) 2.1 40.2 29.9 17.4 7.5 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kent St. 5.3 1.9 5.0 11.1 17.1 20.7 19.0 12.3 7.4 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.0
Toledo 3.6 9.0 16.2 24.2 23.9 13.5 7.6 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 5.8 0.9 2.7 7.8 14.8 21.5 18.9 15.2 9.1 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.1
Ball St. 6.3 0.5 1.7 4.3 10.1 17.3 20.1 19.6 13.2 7.4 3.8 1.6 0.3
Bowling Green 7.6 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 8.5 13.3 17.5 20.0 16.8 10.7 5.2 1.3
Western Michigan 8.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.1 6.0 10.4 16.0 20.9 21.6 15.5 5.2
Eastern Michigan 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 4.3 7.4 12.2 18.6 22.3 19.2 11.0 2.3
Buffalo 9.9 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.4 5.3 10.1 15.1 21.9 31.4 12.3
Northern Illinois 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 5.0 10.1 22.1 59.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.1 14.5 21.2 22.3 17.1 8.7 2.4
Ohio 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.1 8.5 14.6 18.5 19.7 16.9 10.1 4.3 1.0
Miami (OH) 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.9 6.5 12.4 17.8 20.6 19.7 12.5 5.4 1.1
Kent St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 7.3 13.3 17.9 19.1 17.3 11.8 5.8 1.9 0.4
Toledo 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 8.0 12.9 19.4 20.1 17.2 10.6 5.2 1.5 0.2
Central Michigan 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.9 5.0 10.0 15.2 19.2 18.7 15.2 8.8 3.9 1.1 0.2
Ball St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.8 13.6 18.5 20.2 17.0 10.4 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
Bowling Green 7 - 11 0.3 1.5 4.7 10.7 15.9 19.4 18.0 14.4 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 6.8 13.1 18.9 20.5 17.1 11.9 6.0 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 0.6 4.1 10.6 17.0 21.0 18.9 14.1 8.2 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 5 - 13 1.7 7.3 14.9 20.2 20.6 16.3 10.4 5.6 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 3 - 15 5.1 15.6 23.6 22.3 17.2 9.5 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 54.6% 37.7 13.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Ohio 18.7% 9.9 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 40.2% 25.8 11.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 1.9% 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Toledo 9.0% 3.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.4 2.7 9.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 72.4 0.0%
Ohio 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.5 8.1 6.0 0.9 80.6 0.0%
Miami (OH) 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.2 6.6 7.5 2.2 0.1 81.2 0.0%
Kent St. 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.2 4.6 0.8 86.0 0.0%
Toledo 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.9 2.0 89.9 0.0%
Central Michigan 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.6 95.3 0.0%
Ball St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 97.2 0.0%
Bowling Green 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Buffalo 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 27.6% 0.0% 27.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 19.4% 0.2% 19.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 18.8% 0.0% 18.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 14.0% 0.1% 14.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 10.1% 0.5% 10.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 4.7% 1.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.6% 1.0 2.4 97.6 0.0
2nd Round 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.9
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0