Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#272
Expected Predictive Rating-12.2#331
Pace68.8#185
Improvement+2.4#47

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#262
First Shot-3.5#281
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks-5.0#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement-0.4#207

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#262
First Shot-2.0#240
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#252
Layups/Dunks-1.8#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
Freethrows-1.7#301
Improvement+2.7#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 1.1% 1.6% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 31.0% 22.3%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 12.8% 18.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 93 - 15
Quad 46 - 99 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 2%     0 - 1 -5.7 -8.0 +3.0
  Nov 08, 2024 119   Temple L 74-103 21%     0 - 2 -26.4 -0.5 -24.3
  Nov 12, 2024 346   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 62%     0 - 3 -22.0 -11.0 -10.7
  Nov 15, 2024 64   @ Rutgers L 81-98 6%     0 - 4 -5.2 +13.8 -19.0
  Nov 18, 2024 110   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 12%     0 - 5 +2.7 -3.1 +5.8
  Nov 21, 2024 195   Youngstown St. L 62-72 33%     0 - 6 -11.5 -11.7 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 217   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 27%     0 - 7 -4.6 +1.9 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 250   Presbyterian L 61-71 46%     0 - 8 -14.9 -8.3 -7.7
  Nov 30, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 14%     1 - 8 +17.8 +7.9 +11.9
  Dec 04, 2024 244   @ Lehigh L 63-90 34%     1 - 9 -28.7 -12.5 -16.5
  Dec 10, 2024 117   @ Princeton L 67-71 14%     1 - 10 +1.8 -0.1 +1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 280   Fairfield W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 30, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 61-93 0.2%   
  Jan 02, 2025 307   Stony Brook W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 219   @ Delaware L 74-80 28%    
  Jan 09, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 121   College of Charleston L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 321   @ N.C. A&T W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 295   @ Campbell L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 23, 2025 179   @ Elon L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 222   @ William & Mary L 77-83 29%    
  Jan 30, 2025 146   Drexel L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 219   Delaware L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 06, 2025 266   Hampton W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 213   Towson L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 307   @ Stony Brook L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 213   @ Towson L 62-68 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 151   @ Hofstra L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 160   Northeastern L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 179   Elon L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 146   @ Drexel L 63-72 20%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.0 1.1 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.4 4.2 0.5 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.5 1.5 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 2.6 0.2 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 11.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.3 9.0 12.4 14.3 14.4 13.2 10.3 7.5 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 89.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 54.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 14.0% 14.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 16.4% 16.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.4% 7.5% 7.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
11-7 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.8
10-8 7.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 7.3
9-9 10.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.3
8-10 13.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.1
7-11 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.4
6-12 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-13 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 5.3% 5.3
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%