Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#265
Expected Predictive Rating-11.9#317
Pace71.0#124
Improvement+2.1#21

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#226
First Shot-5.0#307
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#45
Layup/Dunks-6.5#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#104
Freethrows-1.6#261
Improvement-0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#290
First Shot-5.4#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#62
Layups/Dunks-2.0#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#128
Freethrows-3.6#335
Improvement+2.1#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 5.5% 10.0% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 28.4% 35.6% 24.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 10.7% 16.7%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Neutral) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 83 - 16
Quad 47 - 710 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 4%     0 - 1 -9.2 -8.8 +0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 114   Temple L 74-103 20%     0 - 2 -25.4 -1.5 -22.4
  Nov 12, 2024 325   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 53%     0 - 3 -19.1 -9.4 -9.4
  Nov 15, 2024 44   @ Rutgers L 81-98 5%     0 - 4 -3.4 +15.6 -18.9
  Nov 18, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 10%     0 - 5 +4.5 -3.0 +7.4
  Nov 21, 2024 192   Youngstown St. L 72-76 35%    
  Nov 22, 2024 181   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-71 25%    
  Nov 23, 2024 279   Presbyterian W 75-74 53%    
  Nov 30, 2024 88   @ Seton Hall L 56-70 9%    
  Dec 04, 2024 283   @ Lehigh L 75-77 42%    
  Dec 10, 2024 109   @ Princeton L 68-80 13%    
  Dec 21, 2024 271   Fairfield W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 30, 2024 3   @ Auburn L 64-92 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 302   Stony Brook W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 216   @ Delaware L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 09, 2025 150   UNC Wilmington L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 112   College of Charleston L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 16, 2025 285   @ N.C. A&T L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 257   @ Campbell L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 207   @ Elon L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 210   @ William & Mary L 77-83 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 144   Drexel L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 216   Delaware W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 06, 2025 307   Hampton W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 129   Towson L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 13, 2025 302   @ Stony Brook L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   @ Towson L 63-74 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 134   @ Hofstra L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 149   Northeastern L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 207   Elon L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 64-73 21%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.2 0.2 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.8 0.5 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.9 1.1 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.3 2.0 0.1 11.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.4 14th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.3 6.1 9.4 12.1 13.6 13.5 12.1 9.5 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 77.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 29.5% 29.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 14.1% 14.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 12.4% 12.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.6% 10.2% 10.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.2% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
11-7 5.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1
10-8 7.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.4
9-9 9.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.4
8-10 12.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.0
7-11 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 12.1% 12.1
4-14 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%