Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#4
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#58
Pace60.5#354
Improvement+0.3#150

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#12
First Shot+5.4#44
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#22
Layup/Dunks+0.0#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows+0.8#149
Improvement-0.5#247

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#2
First Shot+10.0#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#127
Layups/Dunks+3.9#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#71
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+0.8#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.6% 12.4% 5.7%
#1 Seed 32.9% 39.9% 22.9%
Top 2 Seed 56.2% 64.9% 44.2%
Top 4 Seed 81.2% 87.7% 72.2%
Top 6 Seed 92.0% 95.5% 87.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.2% 99.3% 96.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.4% 99.0% 95.5%
Average Seed 2.8 2.4 3.3
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 97.9% 95.3%
Conference Champion 40.0% 44.6% 33.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round97.8% 99.1% 96.1%
Second Round90.5% 93.6% 86.3%
Sweet Sixteen66.9% 71.4% 60.7%
Elite Eight42.8% 47.5% 36.1%
Final Four25.7% 29.3% 20.7%
Championship Game15.0% 17.7% 11.2%
National Champion8.0% 9.6% 5.8%

Next Game: Alabama (Neutral) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 44 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 325   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +44.7 +22.1 +24.5
  Nov 09, 2024 6   Auburn L 69-74 52%     1 - 1 +14.5 +12.8 +1.1
  Nov 13, 2024 256   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +38.0 +11.3 +25.6
  Nov 22, 2024 142   Hofstra W 80-44 97%     3 - 1 +34.1 +16.1 +22.0
  Nov 26, 2024 10   Alabama W 75-73 58%    
  Nov 28, 2024 74   Notre Dame W 71-59 87%    
  Dec 07, 2024 69   Butler W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 10, 2024 120   Troy W 76-56 97%    
  Dec 18, 2024 121   Toledo W 82-62 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 225   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-56 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 88   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-63 83%    
  Jan 04, 2025 35   BYU W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 06, 2025 60   TCU W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 58   @ Kansas St. W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 15, 2025 54   West Virginia W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 84   @ Central Florida W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   Utah W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 54   @ West Virginia W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 23   Texas Tech W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 04, 2025 88   Oklahoma St. W 77-60 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 66   @ Colorado W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 10, 2025 13   Baylor W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 17   @ Arizona W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 18, 2025 68   @ Arizona St. W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 11   Iowa St. W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 24, 2025 23   @ Texas Tech W 69-65 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 18   Cincinnati W 71-62 78%    
  Mar 03, 2025 7   Kansas W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 13   @ Baylor W 68-67 54%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 7.5 10.8 9.9 6.1 2.1 40.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.5 6.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 3.5 1.0 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.7 7.0 9.2 12.2 13.7 14.8 13.9 10.4 6.1 2.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
19-1 99.8% 6.1    5.9 0.2
18-2 95.2% 9.9    8.7 1.2 0.0
17-3 77.9% 10.8    7.5 3.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 50.6% 7.5    3.6 2.9 0.9 0.1
15-5 22.0% 3.0    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 28.6 8.8 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.1% 100.0% 63.2% 36.8% 1.1 1.9 0.2 100.0%
19-1 6.1% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.2 5.1 1.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 10.4% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1.3 7.9 2.4 0.2 100.0%
17-3 13.9% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.5 8.4 4.7 0.7 0.1 100.0%
16-4 14.8% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.8 5.7 6.2 2.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 13.7% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 2.4 2.6 5.1 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.1 0.9 2.8 4.1 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.2% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 4.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 7.0% 99.9% 9.1% 90.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 4.7% 98.8% 6.6% 92.2% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
10-10 2.7% 92.8% 4.6% 88.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 92.4%
9-11 1.5% 76.0% 4.0% 72.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 75.0%
8-12 0.9% 46.0% 2.1% 43.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 44.8%
7-13 0.4% 14.7% 1.8% 12.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 13.1%
6-14 0.2% 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.2% 28.4% 69.7% 2.8 32.9 23.4 14.9 10.1 6.6 4.1 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 97.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.1 14.9