Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.9 109
Expected Predictive Rating +4.4 100
Pace 68.9 177
Improvement -1.0 230

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #76 B- B- B C+ B-
Defense C #177 D+ D B A- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 67 61% 92 +4.1 50
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 220 45% 36 +0.4 158
Three Pointers 39% 228 35% 151 -0.8 208
1st FG Attempt 1.09 77 +3.7 76
Second Chance 29.7% 207 1.23 12 0.36 76
Turnovers 14.5% 42
Freethrows 0.32 146 74% 113 0.24 124
Total Offense +4.2 76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 59% 207 +0.9 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 235 36% 107 +1.1 106
Three Pointers 45% 63 37% 325 -4.2 339
1st FG Attempt 1.06 253 -2.2 254
Second Chance 29.1% 115 1.28 365 0.37 314
Turnovers 19.0% 68
Freethrows 0.21 7 74% 259 0.16 13
Total Defense -0.3 177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.6 103 +0.1 185
Shot Type Accuracy +2.9 81 +2.1 263
Possession Length 16.4 83 18.5 334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 57 0.15 96
Improvement -1.5 #278 +0.5 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 1% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 42% 12% 54%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 10
Quad 21 - 62 - 16
Quad 32 - 25 - 18
Quad 48 - 013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 262 Fairfield W 76 - 68 88% -2  21% 1 - 0 C -1 D -4 D+ D+ A B- +4 B- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 334 @New Haven W 87 - 43 87% +18  83% 2 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +21 B A+ A+ A+ +20 A- C- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 166 Navy W 80 - 71 76% +6  89% 3 - 0 B- +6 B +7 C- A+ A C -1 C- D A
 Sat, Nov 15 226 La Salle W 83 - 69 76% +11  87% 4 - 0 B +11 A+ +15 A+ C- A+ C- -3 D F A
 Wed, Nov 19 153 Harvard W 84 - 80 74% +2  60% 5 - 0 C +1 A+ +15 A- A- A F -14 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 60 Providence L 65 - 77 31% -3  31% 5 - 1 C- -3 F -11 F C+ C- A- +8 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 275 Boston University W 96 - 87 89% +12  92% 6 - 1 C -0 A+ +22 A- A A+ F -21 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 287 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 90% +21  89% 7 - 1 A +21 C- -2 B- A+ F A+ +19 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 192 Campbell W 87 - 76 80% +5  73% 8 - 1 B- +6 B- +4 B+ F A+ C+ +2 D D+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 29 @Indiana L 72 - 113 10% -28  1% 8 - 2 0 - 1 F -23 C +0 B- B+ D F -22 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 10 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 12% -1  33% 8 - 3 0 - 2 B+ +13 B+ +8 B A A B +5 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 99 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 45% -16  0% 8 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F C- D- -8 F B- D
 Mon, Dec 29 339 NC Central W 90 - 67 95% +8  75% 9 - 4 B +8 B+ +9 A+ F B C -0 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 6 Illinois L 65 - 73 9% -10  0% 9 - 5 0 - 3 B +10 D+ -2 D A- B A +13 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 5% -5  17% 9 - 6 0 - 4 A +21 B+ +7 D- A+ A A+ +14 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 9 @Purdue L 85 - 93 4% -5  9% 9 - 7 0 - 5 A- +16 A+ +23 A+ A+ B+ D- -8 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 34 UCLA L 60 - 71 24% -3  17% 9 - 8 0 - 6 C +0 C- -1 B- F C C -1 A F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 104 @Maryland L 73 - 96 36% -15  7% 9 - 9 0 - 7 F+ -16 B +6 A F A+ F -23 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 33 Wisconsin L 71 - 98 24% -20  11% 9 - 10 0 - 8 F+ -16 C- -2 D- B- A+ F -13 F A- D
 Mon, Jan 26 39 @Ohio St. L 78 - 84 12% -8  3% 9 - 11 0 - 9 B +11 A- +10 A A+ F C+ +1 D- A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 64 @Northwestern L 73 - 94 24% -7  6% 9 - 12 0 - 10 D -10 B- +4 A- F B- F -15 F F C+
 Sun, Feb 1 71 Minnesota W 77 - 75 46% +6  94% 10 - 12 1 - 10 B- +7 A +12 B- A+ B+ D+ -5 C- F B
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 69 - 110 2% -27  1% 10 - 13 1 - 11 D- -12 B+ +8 B- D- A+ F -19 F F D
 Sun, Feb 8 47 USC L 75 - 77 34% +1  41% 10 - 14 1 - 12 B- +6 C+ +2 A+ B- F B- +4 A- F A-
 Wed, Feb 11 46 @Washington W 63 - 60 16% +1  54% 11 - 14 2 - 12 A- +17 C- -1 B+ C- D A+ +19 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 80 @Oregon L 72 - 78 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 122 Rutgers W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 15 @Nebraska L 67 - 85 5%
 Sat, Feb 28 25 Iowa L 69 - 78 20%
 Wed, Mar 4 39 Ohio St. L 75 - 82 26%
 Sun, Mar 8 122 @Rutgers L 74 - 76 43%
Totals 13 - 18 4 - 16 +4 B- +4 B- B- B C +0 D+ D B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- B+ C+ B- 43% 18% 39% B- B- C A B- B C+ B- C+ C C- B- D D+ 36% 19% 45% C D+ C+ F D B A D+ A-
1.15 61% 45% 35% +3 +1 1.09 30% 1.2 .36 15% .32 74% .24 1.09 59% 36% 37% +2 0 1.06 29% 1.3 .37 19% .21 74% .23
Nov
3		 Fairfield D C+ C- F+ D+ 52% 15% 33% C+ D+ F A D+ A A+ F B- B- F C+ A+ B 38% 13% 48% D- B- A- A- A- F A+ F B+
1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24 0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13
Nov
8		 New Haven A+ F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B A A+ A+ A+ C+ C- C+ A+ A- D- A+ A 36% 18% 46% D A- C+ D C- A+ B+ A B+
1.40 48% 80% 43% +5 +2 1.16 40% 1.6 .63 10% .28 75% .21 0.69 50% 43% 22% -10 0 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 31% .19 63% .12
Nov
11		 Navy B C+ C- D- C 36% 30% 34% C- C- B- A+ A+ A B+ B- B+ C D+ C B- C- 41% 27% 33% C+ C- B F D A B+ F C
1.17 63% 38% 28% -1 -1 0.96 33% 1.5 .52 13% .30 78% .23 1.03 60% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.4 .38 23% .27 93% .25
Nov
15		 La Salle A+ A- F A+ A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ D- A C- A+ D- D D- C- B F+ F F+ 36% 30% 34% B D B F F A B- F C-
1.30 66% 20% 53% +12 +3 1.32 23% 1.3 .31 11% .19 64% .12 1.08 50% 46% 40% +3 -1 1.05 30% 1.6 .48 24% .31 80% .25
Nov
19		 Harvard A+ A+ D F+ B+ 51% 12% 37% B+ A- A+ D+ A- A A+ D- A+ F F B+ F F 38% 13% 49% D+ F F F F B- A F B+
1.32 76% 33% 28% +5 +2 1.16 45% 0.9 .41 11% .44 68% .30 1.25 72% 33% 43% +12 +1 1.28 38% 1.6 .58 20% .16 100% .16
Nov
22		 Providence F F A- B- F 40% 25% 36% C F B D+ C+ C- C- A+ B- A- B F+ A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% D A+ C+ F D+ F B C- B
0.92 24% 46% 37% -10 0 0.81 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 81% .22 1.10 57% 50% 19% -11 +2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 10% .30 79% .24
Nov
25		 Boston University A+ B- A+ A+ A- 48% 16% 36% B A- B- A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 23% 13% 65% B- F C F F F+ B+ C+ B+
1.51 62% 71% 44% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.4 .47 5% .66 70% .46 1.37 82% 67% 45% +20 0 1.42 25% 1.7 .42 14% .24 69% .16
Nov
29		 Sacred Heart C- B F A+ C+ 55% 18% 27% B- B- A A+ A+ F A+ F A+ A+ A- A+ D B- 34% 18% 48% C- B- A A+ A+ A+ A- F B-
1.16 68% 11% 50% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.4 .59 22% .48 66% .31 0.76 47% 22% 38% -4 0 0.94 18% 0.7 .12 31% .21 91% .19
Dec
2		 Campbell B- C+ A+ B+ B+ 52% 23% 25% C+ B+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ C+ B- A+ F D 52% 12% 36% D D D- C+ D+ A B+ A+ A+
1.19 63% 58% 38% +9 +1 1.21 20% 0.3 .07 10% .38 88% .33 1.04 54% 17% 44% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.0 .38 23% .34 53% .18
Dec
9		 Indiana C C+ B+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- B- C- A+ B+ D B+ F+ B- F F F F F 44% 4% 53% D- F A F F C A C- A
0.98 56% 44% 27% -2 -2 0.94 25% 1.5 .38 19% .37 68% .25 1.54 84% 100% 53% +29 +3 1.65 24% 2.3 .53 14% .24 80% .19
Dec
13		 Michigan St. B+ B- C- D+ B 33% 21% 46% B- B B A+ A A F A+ D- B A+ A+ F B- 41% 20% 39% D C+ B D C A+ D F F
1.04 58% 33% 31% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 13% .15 89% .13 1.10 44% 22% 53% +2 0 1.07 38% 1.2 .45 25% .40 86% .35
Dec
21		 Pittsburgh F D+ C+ F F 39% 20% 41% C F F+ F F C- F F F D- A+ F F F 43% 12% 45% D- F A- D B- D B A+ B+
0.71 53% 40% 20% -10 0 0.82 18% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11 1.23 41% 67% 52% +8 +1 1.22 30% 1.1 .33 14% .25 57% .14
Dec
29		 NC Central B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 10% 60% B- A+ F F F B F B+ F+ C F D+ C F 36% 30% 34% B+ F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17 0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09
Jan
3		 Illinois D+ F+ C+ F F+ 28% 14% 58% A D B A+ A- B A- D- B A C A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ B- F D+ F
0.96 44% 38% 24% -12 0 0.77 29% 1.1 .33 10% .23 64% .15 1.08 63% 25% 24% -8 0 0.86 36% 0.9 .33 15% .49 82% .40
Jan
6		 Michigan B+ D C F F+ 26% 26% 47% B- D- A- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% C A+ A+ D+ A+ B- B+ C B
1.01 43% 36% 16% -17 -2 0.64 33% 1.5 .49 14% .37 78% .29 1.04 61% 50% 26% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.4 .29 17% .32 74% .24
Jan
10		 Purdue A+ A+ C A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A- A+ C- A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ B- D- F C+ D- D+ 34% 17% 48% D D+ A+ F D+ F A- A+ A+
1.27 76% 38% 42% +13 0 1.27 21% 2.2 .46 15% .18 90% .16 1.39 80% 40% 39% +12 0 1.26 26% 1.9 .48 4% .22 43% .09
Jan
14		 UCLA C- A- A+ F B- 36% 17% 48% B- B- F+ F F C B+ A+ A+ C A+ A C A 18% 18% 64% C- A F F F A+ F F F
1.00 67% 71% 20% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.7 .15 20% .35 94% .33 1.18 43% 29% 36% -2 -1 0.95 42% 1.7 .73 23% .46 100% .46
Jan
18		 Maryland B A C A A 35% 17% 48% C A F C F A+ A- D B+ F C- A F F 24% 14% 63% C+ F F+ F F C- B+ C+ B+
1.11 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.0 .13 11% .36 67% .24 1.47 58% 29% 53% +17 0 1.35 41% 1.3 .55 17% .31 71% .22
Jan
22		 Wisconsin C- F B- F+ D 27% 33% 40% D- D- B- B- B- A+ A B- A F F A- F F 37% 10% 53% C F F+ A+ A- D A B A+
1.00 40% 44% 27% -7 -2 0.84 27% 1.1 .29 10% .36 74% .27 1.38 73% 33% 45% +14 +1 1.32 37% 0.7 .26 10% .23 73% .17
Jan
26		 Ohio St. A- F+ A+ A A 25% 23% 52% C+ A B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F F C- F 27% 33% 41% A D- A+ B- A+ D+ C+ B- C+
1.14 45% 60% 39% +6 -1 1.11 36% 1.6 .56 26% .42 86% .36 1.23 77% 69% 35% +16 -2 1.29 19% 1.0 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Northwestern B- A- F B B+ 50% 15% 35% A A- F A+ F B- A- A+ A+ F F+ D F F 42% 20% 38% D+ F D F F C+ A+ A A+
1.08 67% 14% 35% +2 +2 1.08 11% 1.3 .14 16% .35 85% .30 1.38 70% 45% 52% +17 0 1.36 33% 1.6 .52 13% .15 67% .10
Feb
1		 Minnesota A C C- B- C+ 45% 22% 33% B+ B- A A+ A+ B+ F A+ D D+ F F A C 36% 5% 59% D- C- C- F F B B- F D+
1.21 57% 36% 35% 0 0 1.02 38% 1.7 .63 16% .17 89% .15 1.18 81% 50% 27% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.8 .56 19% .33 82% .27
Feb
5		 Michigan B+ A+ B- F C+ 37% 30% 33% B B- D+ F D- A+ A+ A A+ F F+ B F F 46% 11% 43% B- F F F F D A F B
0.97 65% 38% 11% -9 -1 0.81 21% 0.7 .14 7% .39 81% .32 1.54 73% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.39 48% 2.0 .96 13% .27 88% .24
Feb
8		 USC C+ C+ A+ B A 54% 13% 33% A A+ C+ B+ B- F C F D- B- C+ C- A+ A 44% 24% 32% C- A- C F F A- A+ C A
1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16 1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23
Feb
11		 Washington C- A+ B+ A- A+ 16% 57% 27% F B+ F A+ C- D D- B D A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B- C+ B- B+ B A+ A
0.96 75% 43% 38% +7 -6 1.04 15% 1.5 .22 18% .21 73% .15 0.92 64% 18% 33% -6 -3 0.85 34% 1.1 .37 18% .26 57% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 1.5 2.7 0.7 4.9 13th
14th 1.6 10.4 3.0 0.1 15.0 14th
15th 0.3 13.0 7.0 0.2 20.5 15th
16th 4.3 14.8 1.0 20.1 16th
17th 1.3 15.2 4.4 0.0 20.9 17th
18th 7.7 10.0 0.3 17.9 18th
Total 8.9 29.7 34.1 19.9 6.2 1.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 1.2% 1.2
6-14 6.2% 6.2
5-15 19.9% 19.9
4-16 34.1% 34.1
3-17 29.7% 29.7
2-18 8.9% 8.9
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.9%