Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#80
Pace69.4#187
Improvement-0.3#212

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#65
First Shot+3.2#90
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#79
Layup/Dunks+5.3#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#299
Freethrows+1.1#119
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#158
First Shot+0.8#145
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks-2.0#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#260
Freethrows+4.0#14
Improvement-0.2#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 10.0% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 10.0% 2.8%
Average Seed 9.7 9.3 9.8
.500 or above 39.0% 63.3% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.6% 15.3% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.3% 9.9% 26.6%
First Four1.4% 3.1% 1.1%
First Round2.9% 8.1% 2.1%
Second Round1.0% 3.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 13.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 11
Quad 22 - 44 - 15
Quad 33 - 17 - 16
Quad 48 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 290 Fairfield W 76-68 92%     1 - 0 -2.2 -0.6 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 8 332 @New Haven W 87-43 88%     2 - 0 +36.7 +23.9 +18.3
  Tue, Nov 11 197 Navy W 80-71 84%     3 - 0 +3.7 +7.1 -3.2
  Sat, Nov 15 225 La Salle W 83-69 81%     4 - 0 +10.2 +17.7 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 19 202 Harvard W 84-80 84%     5 - 0 -1.6 +16.7 -17.9
  Sat, Nov 22 65 Providence L 65-77 37%     5 - 1 -3.4 -6.3 +2.9
  Tue, Nov 25 253 Boston University W 96-87 89%     6 - 1 +0.9 +24.9 -23.1
  Sat, Nov 29 256 Sacred Heart W 90-59 89%     7 - 1 +22.8 +1.4 +18.4
  Tue, Dec 2 217 Campbell W 87-76 86%     8 - 1 +4.4 +7.5 -3.5
  Tue, Dec 9 28 @Indiana L 70-82 14%    
  Sat, Dec 13 12 Michigan St. L 67-77 17%    
  Sun, Dec 21 95 Pittsburgh L 72-73 50%    
  Mon, Dec 29 350 NC Central W 83-62 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 15 Illinois L 72-85 12%    
  Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 70-88 5%    
  Sat, Jan 10 7 @Purdue L 67-85 5%    
  Wed, Jan 14 27 UCLA L 70-76 30%    
  Sun, Jan 18 93 @Maryland L 75-78 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 30 Wisconsin L 77-82 31%    
  Mon, Jan 26 24 @Ohio St. L 72-84 13%    
  Thu, Jan 29 61 @Northwestern L 73-80 27%    
  Sun, Feb 1 102 Minnesota W 72-69 62%    
  Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 67-91 2%    
  Sun, Feb 8 35 USC L 78-83 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 49 @Washington L 73-81 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 81 @Oregon L 74-79 33%    
  Wed, Feb 18 123 Rutgers W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 48 @Nebraska L 74-82 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 25 Iowa L 70-76 29%    
  Wed, Mar 4 24 Ohio St. L 75-81 28%    
  Sun, Mar 8 123 @Rutgers L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.2 2.8 4.5 1.5 0.1 9.1 13th
14th 0.1 2.4 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.7 6.0 4.5 0.7 0.0 13.1 15th
16th 0.1 1.5 6.1 5.7 1.3 0.1 14.7 16th
17th 0.1 1.7 5.8 5.8 1.8 0.2 15.4 17th
18th 0.5 2.9 5.5 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 14.6 18th
Total 0.5 3.0 7.3 11.7 15.1 16.2 15.0 11.9 8.3 5.4 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.3% 94.7% 1.3% 93.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
12-8 0.8% 80.4% 80.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.4%
11-9 1.5% 62.0% 62.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 62.0%
10-10 3.0% 35.9% 0.2% 35.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.9 35.7%
9-11 5.4% 10.9% 10.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 10.9%
8-12 8.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 2.1%
7-13 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.2%
6-14 15.0% 15.0
5-15 16.2% 16.2
4-16 15.1% 15.1
3-17 11.7% 11.7
2-18 7.3% 7.3
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 3.8% 0.0% 3.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.1 96.2 3.7%