Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.8 #110
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #125
Pace 59.3 #365
Improvement -5.3 #357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #266 C F A- F B-
Defense #29 A- A+ C+ B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.20 #128 +3.3 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #246 0.77 #147 -1.2 #235
Three Pointers 40% #192 0.96 #255 -1.5 #235
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.6 #162
Freethrows 14.5 #325 67% #323 9.8 #344
Second Chance 21.4% #358 1.02 #222 0.22 #352
Turnovers 13.9% #42
Total Offense -3.2 #266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #187 1.13 #136 +0.5 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.71 #106 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 41% #179 0.81 #5 +4.2 #36
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #41 +5.3 #42
Freethrows 15.1 #52 71% #96 10.6 #49
Second Chance 23.9% #14 0.91 #33 0.22 #11
Turnovers 17.2% #126
Total Defense +7.0 #29

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #82 0.1% #173
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #182 -10.6% #28
Possession Length 19.0 #333 18.4 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.14 #64
Improvement -3.2 #340 -2.1 #302

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.7% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 90.4% 95.7% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 79.9% 51.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.2% 10.7% 7.3%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 37 - 69 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 207 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 82% +17  1 - 0 +23 +8 A D C+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 170 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 77% +4  2 - 0 +3 -4 B+ F C- +8 B C A+
 Fri, Nov 14 165 Furman W 70 - 54 76% +10  3 - 0 +12 +3 B+ F A+ +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 318 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 93% +3  4 - 0 +0 +2 A+ F F +0 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 123 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 43% +3  5 - 0 +6 +2 B- F A+ +4 A- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 268 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 82% +18  6 - 0 +15 +5 C+ F A+ +13 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 70 Tulsa L 60 - 63 34% -3  6 - 1 +5 -6 F D B +11 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 103 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 58% -2  6 - 2 -3 -4 C+ F A+ +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 139 Oakland W 75 - 63 70% +5  7 - 2 +10 -6 D+ F A+ +16 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 151 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 51% +2  8 - 2 1 - 0 +10 -1 A+ F F +11 A+ A F
 Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 14% +2  8 - 3 +10 +1 B D- B+ +9 A+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 167 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 76% +3  9 - 3 2 - 0 +6 -2 C+ D+ C +11 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 188 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 79% +1  10 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +6 B+ B B- -1 F A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 271 @Evansville W 62 - 48 75% +12  11 - 3 4 - 0 +11 -3 A- F F +15 B+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 82 Belmont L 65 - 78 48% -8  11 - 4 4 - 1 -9 +6 C+ D- A+ -17 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 119 @Bradley L 69 - 75 42% -2  11 - 5 4 - 2 -0 +2 D F A+ -3 C B+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 151 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 73% -0  11 - 6 4 - 3 -10 -4 F B- A- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 167 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 56% -2  11 - 7 4 - 4 -8 -18 F F A +8 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 90 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 29% -5  11 - 8 4 - 5 +4 -9 F D+ A- +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 97 Murray St. W 71 - 70 55%
 Wed, Jan 28 146 @Southern Illinois L 62 - 63 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 271 Evansville W 67 - 54 88%
 Fri, Feb 6 119 Bradley W 66 - 62 65%
 Mon, Feb 9 97 @Murray St. L 68 - 73 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 82 @Belmont L 64 - 70 27%
 Sun, Feb 15 158 Drake W 66 - 59 73%
 Wed, Feb 18 188 @Indiana St. W 67 - 64 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 146 Southern Illinois W 66 - 60 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 90 Illinois St. W 63 - 62 51%
 Sun, Mar 1 158 @Drake W 63 - 62 53%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 +4 -3 C F A- +7 A- A+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.3 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.2 3.6 0.3 10.1 3rd
4th 1.1 7.3 7.0 0.9 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 8.6 9.9 1.9 0.0 21.6 5th
6th 0.6 6.3 9.5 2.2 0.1 18.7 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 7.1 2.4 0.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.0 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.5 0.2 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 10.1 16.8 21.7 20.4 14.9 7.5 2.3 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 76.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 29.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.3% 27.7% 26.2% 1.5% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.1%
14-6 2.3% 19.5% 19.5% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.9
13-7 7.5% 18.2% 18.2% 12.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.1
12-8 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 12.3 0.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 12.7
11-9 20.4% 10.9% 10.9% 12.5 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.1 18.1
10-10 21.7% 7.3% 7.3% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 20.1
9-11 16.8% 4.6% 4.6% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 16.0
8-12 10.1% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.8
7-13 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 4.2
6-14 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 12.6 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%