Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#105
Pace60.9#356
Improvement-1.2#266

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#170
First Shot+3.6#75
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#351
Layup/Dunks+5.3#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#187
Freethrows-1.4#264
Improvement-0.8#252

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot+1.7#110
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#11
Layups/Dunks+0.7#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows+1.7#85
Improvement-0.4#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 18.9% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 93.9% 96.1% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 88.5% 81.4%
Conference Champion 23.6% 25.6% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round17.6% 18.8% 13.8%
Second Round3.1% 3.5% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 43 - 5
Quad 39 - 511 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 261 Cal St. Northridge W 86-57 89%     1 - 0 +20.6 +7.3 +12.5
  Sun, Nov 9 153 South Dakota St. W 65-58 78%     2 - 0 +4.0 -1.5 +6.2
  Fri, Nov 14 148 Furman W 70-54 77%     3 - 0 +13.6 +1.3 +13.7
  Tue, Nov 18 333 Northern Illinois W 70-57 95%     4 - 0 -0.3 -1.0 +2.4
  Sat, Nov 22 120 @UC Irvine W 70-69 OT 47%     5 - 0 +6.9 +4.1 +2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 260 Loyola Chicago W 72-51 84%     6 - 0 +15.6 +5.0 +13.5
  Wed, Nov 26 89 Tulsa L 60-63 47%     6 - 1 +3.0 -5.8 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 91 Wichita St. L 69-74 OT 59%     6 - 2 -2.2 -3.3 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 13 146 Oakland W 77-70 76%    
  Wed, Dec 17 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 69-64 67%    
  Mon, Dec 22 41 @St. Mary's L 58-68 19%    
  Mon, Dec 29 211 Valparaiso W 68-57 86%    
  Thu, Jan 1 198 Indiana St. W 73-62 84%    
  Sun, Jan 4 265 @Evansville W 67-59 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 90 Belmont W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 115 @Bradley L 64-65 45%    
  Tue, Jan 13 204 Illinois-Chicago W 72-61 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 211 @Valparaiso W 65-60 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 92 @Illinois St. L 63-67 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 111 Murray St. W 73-69 66%    
  Wed, Jan 28 143 @Southern Illinois W 67-66 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 265 Evansville W 70-56 89%    
  Fri, Feb 6 115 Bradley W 67-62 66%    
  Mon, Feb 9 111 @Murray St. L 70-72 44%    
  Thu, Feb 12 90 @Belmont L 66-70 37%    
  Sun, Feb 15 124 Drake W 66-60 69%    
  Wed, Feb 18 198 @Indiana St. W 70-65 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 143 Southern Illinois W 70-63 74%    
  Wed, Feb 25 92 Illinois St. W 66-64 58%    
  Sun, Mar 1 124 @Drake L 62-63 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 6.6 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 23.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.7 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 4.2 6.3 3.6 0.9 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.7 5.6 8.3 10.6 12.5 13.5 13.3 10.9 8.7 5.2 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 98.6% 2.6    2.5 0.1
17-3 92.6% 4.8    4.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 76.4% 6.6    4.6 1.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 48.3% 5.3    2.5 2.1 0.6 0.0
14-6 19.0% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 15.6 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 72.7% 56.4% 16.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.5%
19-1 1.0% 54.8% 47.1% 7.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 14.6%
18-2 2.7% 44.7% 42.1% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 4.6%
17-3 5.2% 34.9% 34.3% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 3.4 0.9%
16-4 8.7% 30.3% 30.2% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 0.2%
15-5 10.9% 25.7% 25.6% 0.1% 12.0 0.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 0.1%
14-6 13.3% 20.5% 20.5% 12.2 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 10.6
13-7 13.5% 16.8% 16.8% 12.4 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 11.2
12-8 12.5% 13.0% 13.0% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.8
11-9 10.6% 8.4% 8.4% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-10 8.3% 7.6% 7.6% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 7.7
9-11 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
8-12 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
7-13 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.7% 17.5% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.5 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 82.3 0.3%