Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.4 196
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 236
Pace 64.1 300
Improvement +2.2 96

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #218 D+ C+ C+ F+ F
Defense C #189 C- C C+ D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 345 49% 353 -7.2 356
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 8 40% 103 +5.9 7
Three Pointers 35% 304 35% 124 -2.5 275
1st FG Attempt 0.94 299 -3.8 298
Second Chance 33.9% 86 1.00 211 0.34 114
Turnovers 16.2% 139
Freethrows 0.23 359 72% 197 0.16 355
Total Offense -1.9 218

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 180 60% 247 -1.1 214
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 122 34% 61 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 39% 244 36% 289 -0.6 211
1st FG Attempt 1.05 228 -1.4 228
Second Chance 30.3% 175 1.06 242 0.32 211
Turnovers 17.5% 147
Freethrows 0.38 346 69% 29 0.26 320
Total Defense -0.6 189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -2.3 358 -0.2 139
Shot Type Accuracy -1.5 221 +1.6 240
Possession Length 17.9 248 17.6 246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 178 0.20 289
Improvement +4.5 #11 -2.4 #302

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.5
.500 or above 21% 38% 11%
.500 or above in Conference 39% 62% 24%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 50 @TCU L 65 - 78 7% -2  42% 0 - 1 C +1 B- +4 C+ C A+ D+ -4 D+ F A
 Mon, Nov 17 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 81% +9  96% 1 - 1 C +1 D -4 F F+ A- B +5 C+ D B-
 Sun, Nov 23 170 @Montana W 68 - 63 32% +0  47% 2 - 1 B- +7 D- -7 F A+ D A+ +15 A+ A B-
 Mon, Nov 24 143 Oakland L 68 - 83 36% -4  23% 2 - 2 D- -14 F -11 F A- F C- -2 C+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 290 Louisiana W 65 - 55 78% -2  36% 3 - 2 C -0 D -5 D- D A B +6 C- D- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 62% -1  41% 3 - 3 0 - 1 D- -14 F -18 F D B B- +3 C D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 43 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 6% -10  11% 3 - 4 C- -3 C +1 B- C- D+ C- -2 C- C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 50% -12  0% 3 - 5 0 - 2 D- -13 D+ -4 B- F D+ F+ -9 F A D
 Sat, Dec 20 249 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 70% -7  10% 3 - 6 D -11 C- -2 F A+ D+ D- -9 F D B
 Mon, Dec 29 280 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 56% +12  87% 4 - 6 1 - 2 B +11 B- +4 A D- D A- +8 B- B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 300 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 60% -0  57% 5 - 6 2 - 2 C+ +2 C- -2 F A+ A- B +4 A- F A
 Fri, Jan 2 88 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 15% -4  27% 5 - 7 2 - 3 C- -3 A- +10 F A+ A+ F -15 F D- C-
 Mon, Jan 5 270 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 53% -9  7% 5 - 8 2 - 4 D- -11 F -12 F B- C- C -1 F A F
 Sat, Jan 10 255 Incarnate Word W 63 - 51 72% +5  81% 6 - 8 3 - 4 C+ +4 F+ -10 F+ D- F A+ +15 C- A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 12 298 Houston Christian W 64 - 56 79% -1  39% 7 - 8 4 - 4 C- -3 F -10 D F+ F A- +9 A C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 266 @Nicholls St. W 90 - 80 52% +5  80% 8 - 8 5 - 4 B- +7 A+ +15 A+ A+ C D- -8 D F B
 Mon, Jan 19 225 @New Orleans L 76 - 89 42% -4  15% 8 - 9 5 - 5 D- -13 D+ -4 C D- C- D- -9 F B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 105 Stephen F. Austin L 81 - 88 36% -4  7% 8 - 10 5 - 6 D+ -6 A- +11 B- A+ C F -17 F A- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 300 East Texas A&M W 82 - 61 79% +7  93% 9 - 10 6 - 6 B +10 B +7 A- B D+ B- +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 88 McNeese St. L 63 - 64 30% -3  13% 9 - 11 6 - 7 C+ +2 C+ +3 D+ D+ A+ C -1 A- B- D+
 Mon, Feb 2 270 SE Louisiana W 73 - 54 74% +8  96% 10 - 11 7 - 7 B +10 B+ +8 C- A- A+ B +5 B- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 74 - 84 18% -10  11% 10 - 12 7 - 8 C- -3 B +6 B C- B D- -8 F A- D+
 Mon, Feb 9 280 Northwestern St. L 68 - 70 76% -3  13% 10 - 13 7 - 9 D- -12 D- -8 D- F C+ D+ -4 C C F
 Sat, Feb 14 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 69 40%
 Mon, Feb 16 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 225 New Orleans W 77 - 73 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 266 Nicholls St. W 75 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 @Incarnate Word W 71 - 70 50%
 Mon, Mar 2 298 @Houston Christian W 70 - 68 59%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 12 -2 C- -2 D+ C+ C+ C -1 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- F+ C+ C+ C- 31% 34% 35% F D+ B- C- C+ C+ F C F+ C C- B D+ C- 39% 22% 39% C+ C- C C- C C+ F+ B+ D
1.06 49% 40% 35% -1 -2 0.94 34% 1.0 .34 16% .23 72% .16 1.09 60% 34% 36% +2 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .32 17% .38 69% .16
Nov
10		 TCU B- D+ C+ A+ A- 24% 49% 27% F C+ B D- C A+ D C- D D+ C C F D 44% 18% 38% C- D+ F F F A F B+ F
1.01 50% 40% 43% +3 -5 0.98 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 67% .14 1.21 60% 38% 41% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.3 .55 20% .47 67% .31
Nov
17		 Louisiana Monroe D D+ A F F+ 28% 33% 38% F F D+ F F+ A- C C- C B C+ A+ D+ C+ 43% 22% 35% D+ C+ D- C- D B- F A+ C-
1.10 59% 50% 26% 0 -2 0.97 33% 0.9 .31 13% .25 69% .17 0.92 52% 18% 35% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .45 54% .24
Nov
23		 Montana D- F D+ A+ F 33% 50% 17% F F B+ A+ A+ D F F F A+ B A+ B+ A+ 38% 18% 44% C+ A+ D A+ A B- F A+ F
0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07 0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37
Nov
24		 Oakland F F D F F 27% 31% 42% F+ F B A- A- F B+ D B C- F A+ A+ B- 50% 17% 33% D C+ C- F F B- F A- F
0.96 50% 38% 27% -6 -2 0.85 39% 1.1 .44 23% .29 69% .20 1.17 71% 25% 19% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.6 .53 16% .53 69% .37
Dec
3		 Louisiana D F A+ B+ F+ 67% 22% 11% B- D- B- F D A A F C+ B D+ A+ D+ C 27% 23% 50% F+ C- C+ F D- A+ B D- B-
1.06 43% 60% 40% -4 +2 0.98 35% 0.8 .26 13% .45 63% .28 0.90 58% 20% 36% -2 -1 0.95 24% 1.3 .31 28% .18 75% .14
Dec
6		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F F F C F+ 28% 39% 33% F F F+ B D B F D- F B- B- D+ B- C- 35% 25% 40% B C A F D+ A- D- D+ D-
0.81 46% 28% 33% -8 -3 0.80 21% 1.1 .24 18% .18 67% .12 0.95 50% 40% 31% -4 -1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 22% .40 68% .28
Dec
10		 San Diego St. C F F A+ B+ 15% 25% 60% F+ B- D+ C+ C- D+ B B- B C- F B F D 31% 37% 31% A C- D A- C+ C F C+ F
0.93 38% 15% 44% 0 -2 0.98 24% 0.9 .22 24% .34 75% .26 1.17 75% 32% 44% +8 -3 1.12 36% 0.9 .33 17% .49 74% .36
Dec
16		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ B+ B B+ B+ 18% 34% 48% F B- D+ F F D+ B C B- F+ B+ C F F 35% 21% 44% B- F A B- A D C+ A- B-
1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26 1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15
Dec
20		 Nebraska Omaha C- C- D F F+ 44% 32% 25% D- F A+ A+ A+ D+ C+ C C D- D- F D+ F 34% 16% 50% D+ F C+ F D B F F F
1.12 60% 33% 21% -5 -1 0.89 42% 1.3 .55 15% .32 75% .24 1.16 65% 63% 36% +8 0 1.18 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 80% .34
Dec
29		 Northwestern St. B- A+ A+ C+ A+ 38% 28% 34% F+ A F+ C+ D- D F D+ F A- A D B- C+ 33% 37% 30% A B- B B+ B+ B F A+ F
1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13 0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34
Dec
31		 East Texas A&M C- F B- F F 45% 29% 25% F+ F B- A+ A+ A- D+ C C- B B- A+ A- A 29% 16% 56% B- A- D F F A F+ F F
1.04 39% 40% 23% -12 -1 0.76 36% 1.4 .51 14% .30 71% .21 0.93 54% 14% 28% -10 0 0.82 27% 1.7 .45 24% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 McNeese St. A- D F F F 23% 23% 53% D- F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F C F F+ F 45% 21% 34% C+ F F C+ D- C- F C+ F
1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50 1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57
Jan
5		 SE Louisiana F F F F F 27% 34% 39% F F A D- B- C- A- A+ A+ C C+ A F F+ 49% 11% 41% F F B- A+ A F F A+ F
0.88 42% 20% 24% -17 -3 0.64 42% 0.9 .39 20% .44 86% .38 1.01 56% 25% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 0.5 .13 13% .60 52% .31
Jan
10		 Incarnate Word F+ F A C+ F+ 47% 22% 31% D+ F+ B F D- F D- D D- A+ F A+ C+ C 44% 22% 33% D- C- C+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ A
1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23 0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12
Jan
12		 Houston Christian F C- D B+ D+ 36% 21% 43% D- D D F+ F+ F A+ C A+ A- B+ A+ A A+ 43% 21% 36% C A F+ A C+ B- F C F
1.03 60% 33% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .25 26% .50 74% .37 0.90 50% 22% 27% -11 0 0.81 36% 0.6 .23 19% .46 70% .32
Jan
17		 Nicholls St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 36% 32% F A+ B- A+ A+ C D- D+ D- D- D+ B D- D- 37% 20% 43% C+ D D+ F F B F F F
1.31 67% 53% 67% +24 -2 1.45 40% 1.5 .60 22% .30 75% .22 1.17 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 28% 1.3 .38 19% .43 79% .34
Jan
19		 New Orleans D+ F A B C+ 30% 30% 41% F C B+ F D- C- F C+ F D- F F A+ F 61% 27% 12% F+ F F A+ B C- F B- F
1.06 44% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 41% 0.6 .26 15% .26 75% .20 1.24 72% 55% 20% +10 +1 1.24 45% 0.7 .31 18% .69 73% .51
Jan
24		 Stephen F. Austin A- A B- D+ B 29% 27% 44% D- B- B+ A+ A+ C D+ A+ B- F F F+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F A+ F+ A- F+ F D- F
1.21 67% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23 1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -4 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25
Jan
27		 East Texas A&M B C+ B A+ A 34% 24% 42% F+ A- A+ D- B D+ F+ D- F+ B- A B+ A+ A+ 50% 13% 37% F+ A+ D F F F D A+ B-
1.21 59% 42% 48% +10 -1 1.20 44% 0.9 .42 19% .26 64% .16 0.90 46% 29% 16% -17 +2 0.71 28% 1.3 .37 13% .29 47% .14
Jan
31		 McNeese St. C+ D C- B+ C 27% 38% 36% F D+ A+ F D+ A+ F C+ F C C A+ F B 28% 40% 33% A+ A- C+ B- B- D+ F+ F F
1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19 1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 SE Louisiana B+ C C C+ C 29% 31% 39% F+ C- A- C+ A- A+ F F F B A+ D B- B 41% 22% 37% D B- A- F D- D- C+ A+ A+
1.20 60% 38% 35% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.1 .45 10% .18 50% .09 0.89 42% 40% 29% -9 0 0.85 21% 1.6 .32 15% .31 25% .08
Feb
7		 Stephen F. Austin B F A+ B A 28% 46% 26% F B C D+ C- B F A+ D- D- D- F+ F F 29% 40% 31% A F A+ F A- D+ F F F
1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17 1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30
Feb
9		 Northwestern St. D- F B- A+ C- 30% 39% 30% F D- C- F F C+ B+ C B D+ F A B- C- 34% 34% 32% B+ C B- D C F D+ A C
1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29 1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 1.7 3.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 6.3 0.9 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 11.3 3.0 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 1.3 12.6 8.7 0.4 22.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 15.6 15.0 1.8 0.0 34.7 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 4.0 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.4 1.7 0.2 2.4 9th
10th 0.4 0.2 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.1 8.0 21.1 30.4 25.7 11.0 2.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 2.6% 6.9% 6.9% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-10 11.0% 2.9% 2.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.7
11-11 25.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 25.1
10-12 30.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.2 0.4 29.9
9-13 21.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.9
8-14 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
7-15 1.1% 1.1
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.1 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 1.1%