Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
147 Arkansas St. 10.3%   18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      +1.0 137 -0.1 171 78.6 9 +0.4 153 -2.1 7
151 Troy 35.0%   14   18 - 11 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.6 145 -0.2 180 64.6 282 +1.2 141 -0.5 1
172 Appalachian St. 13.7%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -0.9      -2.2 235 +1.3 135 60.1 360 -1.4 183 -1.8 6
187 South Alabama 5.8%   19 - 10 11 - 7 -1.8      -1.9 222 +0.2 165 63.1 326 +0.4 152 -1.4 4
189 Marshall 22.2%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -1.9      +2.5 108 -4.4 300 72.3 80 -0.2 160 -1.1 3
198 James Madison 2.6%   17 - 14 9 - 9 -2.1      -0.2 169 -1.9 224 64.7 279 -2.1 196 -3.7 8
225 Southern Miss 1.3%   14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.7      -4.3 285 +0.6 151 71.2 105 -3.2 221 -4.1 9
228 Coastal Carolina 6.4%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -3.8      -4.9 300 +1.1 140 67.8 200 -0.8 172 -1.7 5
233 Texas St. 2.2%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.0      -3.7 267 -0.3 183 65.9 253 -2.4 203 -1.0 2
248 Old Dominion 0.0%   11 - 21 7 - 11 -4.8      -1.9 218 -3.0 263 71.1 109 -6.8 270 -6.8 13
257 Georgia Southern 0.5%   15 - 15 8 - 10 -5.4      -0.7 183 -4.7 313 74.9 33 -4.3 238 -5.2 10
298 Louisiana 0.0%   11 - 22 7 - 11 -8.3      -5.5 313 -2.7 257 60.9 352 -8.0 293 -6.6 12
304 Georgia St. 0.0%   8 - 22 7 - 11 -8.6      -6.3 325 -2.3 246 69.7 140 -9.1 311 -6.2 11
354 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 28 1 - 17 -14.4      -5.4 310 -9.0 361 74.0 44 -20.7 361 -19.7 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Mar 3 304 Georgia St. 75 298 Louisiana 84   
Tue, Mar 3 248 Old Dominion 87 354 Louisiana Monroe 80   
Wed, Mar 4 257 Georgia Southern 88 248 Old Dominion 84   
Wed, Mar 4 198 James Madison 87 298 Louisiana 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 198 James Madison 73 225 Southern Miss 71 56%   
Thu, Mar 5 147 Arkansas St. 89 257 Georgia Southern 83 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.0 100.0
Texas St. 2.0 100.0
South Alabama 2.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 2.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 2.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 2.0 100.0
Marshall 2.0 100.0
Southern Miss 8.0 100.0
James Madison 8.0 100.0
Georgia Southern 10.0 100.0
Louisiana 11.0 100.0
Old Dominion 11.0 100.0
Georgia St. 11.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 100.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 100.0
Coastal Carolina 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 19 - 11 100.0
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 16 100.0
James Madison 9 - 9 18 - 14 100.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 15 - 16 100.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 11 - 22 100.0
Old Dominion 7 - 11 11 - 21 100.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 8 - 22 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 28 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 100.0% 100.0
Texas St.
South Alabama
Coastal Carolina
Arkansas St.
Appalachian St.
Marshall
Southern Miss
James Madison
Georgia Southern
Louisiana
Old Dominion
Georgia St.
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.6 4.1 5.0 0.5 89.7 0.0%
Troy 35.0% 35.0% 0.0% 14   0.4 14.5 18.3 1.8 65.0 0.0%
Appalachian St. 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.7 6.3 6.1 0.6 86.3 0.0%
South Alabama 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.5 3.3 2.0 0.1 94.2 0.0%
Marshall 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 9.3 11.1 1.1 77.8 0.0%
James Madison 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 0.2 98.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.7 4.1 0.6 93.6 0.0%
Texas St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 97.8 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 10.3% 0.0% 10.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 35.0% 0.0% 35.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 13.7% 0.0% 13.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 22.2% 0.0% 22.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 6.4% 0.0% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%