Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
135 Troy 31.3%   14   15 - 9 9 - 4 +1.7      +1.6 125 +0.1 164 65.9 252 +2.3 125 +1.0 1
141 Arkansas St. 15.3%   14 - 10 7 - 6 +1.2      +0.8 143 +0.4 156 77.1 19 +0.7 148 -2.5 6
161 Appalachian St. 20.5%   16 - 9 10 - 4 -0.3      -2.5 235 +2.2 106 60.1 359 +0.3 157 +0.9 2
164 Marshall 17.0%   15 - 9 8 - 4 -0.4      +0.8 145 -1.2 214 71.4 107 +0.9 143 +0.5 3
191 South Alabama 8.8%   15 - 7 7 - 4 -2.0      -2.9 252 +0.9 139 63.3 323 +1.2 142 -0.8 4
222 James Madison 1.1%   11 - 13 4 - 8 -3.1      +0.1 158 -3.2 276 64.5 293 -3.4 221 -6.5 12
234 Texas St. 2.5%   14 - 11 8 - 6 -4.1      -4.1 282 +0.1 167 66.8 237 -3.0 213 -1.5 5
238 Coastal Carolina 1.7%   14 - 11 7 - 6 -4.3      -4.0 278 -0.3 178 67.2 222 -1.5 188 -3.5 8
241 Southern Miss 0.7%   11 - 13 6 - 7 -4.5      -4.0 277 -0.5 188 70.0 139 -3.5 224 -5.5 10
253 Old Dominion 0.2%   7 - 18 4 - 9 -5.1      -2.8 249 -2.2 244 70.7 122 -7.4 287 -8.4 13
274 Georgia Southern 0.3%   12 - 12 6 - 7 -6.4      -1.6 210 -4.8 311 74.7 36 -4.8 240 -5.7 11
276 Georgia St. 0.6%   7 - 16 6 - 6 -6.5      -4.7 298 -1.7 230 70.5 128 -6.7 269 -2.6 7
290 Louisiana 0.2%   9 - 16 6 - 6 -7.5      -5.2 309 -2.3 250 59.6 362 -7.6 292 -4.8 9
356 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 22 1 - 12 -14.7      -7.3 344 -7.4 352 75.1 32 -20.1 363 -18.7 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 164 Marshall 81 253 Old Dominion 79   
Wed, Feb 11 234 Texas St. 74 135 Troy 62   
Wed, Feb 11 161 Appalachian St. 81 274 Georgia Southern 65   
Wed, Feb 11 141 Arkansas St. 103 356 Louisiana Monroe 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 191 South Alabama 67 241 Southern Miss 68 52%   
Thu, Feb 12 276 Georgia St. 70 222 James Madison 76 73%   
Thu, Feb 12 238 Coastal Carolina 66 290 Louisiana 65 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 141 Arkansas St. 76 191 South Alabama 70 72%   
Sat, Feb 14 161 Appalachian St. 66 222 James Madison 67 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 276 Georgia St. 72 253 Old Dominion 77 66%   
Sat, Feb 14 241 Southern Miss 71 135 Troy 74 62%   
Sat, Feb 14 274 Georgia Southern 80 164 Marshall 83 61%   
Sat, Feb 14 234 Texas St. 81 356 Louisiana Monroe 67 89%   
Mon, Feb 16 164 Marshall 74 191 South Alabama 69 67%   
Mon, Feb 16 290 Louisiana 66 253 Old Dominion 71 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.5 66.2 23.6 7.3 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 3.9 2.7 14.3 25.3 26.9 16.8 7.9 3.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 1.9 44.3 30.8 15.2 6.8 2.2 0.6 0.1
Marshall 2.9 24.4 23.2 21.6 15.0 8.4 4.3 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
South Alabama 4.1 11.7 13.1 17.8 16.9 16.2 11.8 7.3 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
James Madison 9.6 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.7 10.6 13.5 15.0 14.4 15.3 14.1 8.8
Texas St. 5.1 1.1 4.8 10.5 17.7 23.3 22.6 14.1 4.7 1.0 0.3
Coastal Carolina 6.6 0.3 1.7 4.9 8.5 13.7 18.9 19.0 14.9 9.1 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.1
Southern Miss 8.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 6.1 10.4 16.5 21.6 17.3 12.4 6.4 3.4
Old Dominion 11.4 0.0 0.5 1.7 5.3 8.3 10.7 14.8 20.6 38.2
Georgia Southern 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.9 11.5 16.1 18.8 19.5 17.8 5.8
Georgia St. 7.6 0.1 0.8 2.1 5.3 9.3 14.1 17.7 18.1 12.8 8.0 6.0 3.8 2.1
Louisiana 9.2 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 5.7 9.7 13.9 17.6 17.9 16.4 9.7 3.4
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 0.1 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 13 - 5 19 - 10 0.0 0.6 5.4 24.9 43.1 26.0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.1 1.0 6.1 21.3 39.4 32.1
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 18 - 11 2.2 14.5 34.1 35.2 14.1
Marshall 12 - 6 19 - 11 0.3 2.9 12.2 25.7 31.3 21.7 6.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 0.2 2.5 11.1 24.0 29.1 22.1 9.4 1.6
James Madison 8 - 10 15 - 15 0.6 4.5 14.6 27.5 28.8 18.5 5.4
Texas St. 10 - 8 16 - 13 2.2 20.6 39.8 29.8 7.6
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 16 - 14 5.0 19.0 31.4 28.2 13.6 2.9
Southern Miss 8 - 10 13 - 16 7.9 25.4 34.7 23.0 8.1 1.0
Old Dominion 6 - 12 9 - 21 3.6 17.2 33.1 29.5 14.2 2.5
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 13 - 16 18.9 36.2 29.6 12.0 3.2 0.3
Georgia St. 9 - 9 10 - 19 2.9 12.3 25.9 29.4 20.4 7.6 1.6
Louisiana 8 - 10 11 - 20 11.2 29.9 31.6 19.5 6.5 1.2 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 64.7 28.6 6.1 0.6 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 66.2% 33.6 23.6 6.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 2.7% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 44.3% 17.2 18.7 6.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
Marshall 24.4% 8.0 9.7 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 11.7% 3.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
James Madison
Texas St. 1.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss
Old Dominion
Georgia Southern
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 31.3% 31.3% 0.0% 14   0.0 6.0 17.9 7.1 0.3 0.0 68.7 0.0%
Arkansas St. 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 1.4 6.5 6.4 1.0 0.0 84.7 0.0%
Appalachian St. 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.1 3.0 10.2 6.7 0.5 79.5 0.0%
Marshall 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.4 4.1 9.5 3.0 0.1 83.0 0.0%
South Alabama 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 4.4 3.1 0.3 91.2 0.0%
James Madison 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 98.9 0.0%
Texas St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 97.5 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 98.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 31.3% 0.0% 31.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 15.3% 0.0% 15.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 20.5% 0.0% 20.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 17.0% 0.0% 17.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 8.8% 0.0% 8.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%