Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Troy 20.6%   14   4 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +0.7      -0.6 178 +1.2 133 69.5 184 +0.1 171 0.0 1
149 Arkansas St. 18.4%   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0.3      +0.4 150 -0.1 166 78.7 17 +5.9 97 0.0 1
166 South Alabama 13.4%   7 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 7 -0.8      -0.1 165 -0.7 183 63.1 336 +6.6 90 0.0 1
172 Marshall 12.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.1      -0.4 169 -0.7 188 74.6 60 +1.0 153 0.0 1
177 James Madison 10.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.4      +2.1 116 -3.5 283 65.0 299 +0.7 159 0.0 1
212 Old Dominion 5.9%   2 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -3.3      -0.8 186 -2.5 252 69.4 186 -6.5 273 0.0 1
224 Southern Miss 5.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -3.8      -0.4 173 -3.4 282 68.8 200 -3.0 210 0.0 1
232 Georgia Southern 4.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.1      -1.4 202 -2.7 260 75.7 42 -2.7 206 0.0 1
235 Coastal Carolina 3.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.3      -4.2 284 -0.2 167 72.8 102 -1.0 187 0.0 1
237 Texas St. 3.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -4.3      -4.1 280 -0.3 170 65.5 286 -5.8 258 0.0 1
282 Appalachian St. 1.5%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.5      -4.1 281 -2.5 249 59.8 364 -5.9 262 0.0 1
319 Louisiana 0.3%   1 - 9 0 - 0 8 - 22 6 - 12 -8.9      -7.1 347 -1.8 229 62.9 338 -14.6 346 0.0 1
338 Georgia St. 0.1%   0 - 9 0 - 0 5 - 23 5 - 13 -11.1      -8.6 359 -2.5 254 71.9 124 -15.4 349 0.0 1
360 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 4 - 24 3 - 15 -14.2      -7.9 352 -6.3 349 72.3 115 -20.4 361 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 172 Marshall 69 109 UNC Wilmington 70   
Wed, Dec 3 213 Rice 77 237 Texas St. 72   
Wed, Dec 3 232 Georgia Southern 77 193 Louisiana Tech 69   
Wed, Dec 3 214 Lamar 65 319 Louisiana 55   
Wed, Dec 3 177 James Madison 67 350 NC Central 62   
Wed, Dec 3 288 Radford 75 224 Southern Miss 82   
Wed, Dec 3 235 Coastal Carolina 78 274 South Carolina Upstate 85   
Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley 52 360 Louisiana Monroe 66   
Fri, Dec 5 117 East Tennessee St. 91 166 South Alabama 65   
Sat, Dec 6 172 Marshall 81 190 Ohio 88   
Sat, Dec 6 177 James Madison 68 218 Norfolk St. 67   
Sat, Dec 6 212 Old Dominion 77 105 Richmond 86   
Sat, Dec 6 235 Coastal Carolina 88 118 Winthrop 84   
Sat, Dec 6 32 Miami (FL) 88 224 Southern Miss 64   
Sat, Dec 6 149 Arkansas St. 90 315 Arkansas Little Rock 78   
Sat, Dec 6 319 Louisiana 63 109 UNC Wilmington 70   
Sat, Dec 6 338 Georgia St. 69 152 Kennesaw St. 92   
Sat, Dec 6 232 Georgia Southern 88 359 Gardner-Webb 84   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 142 Stephen F. Austin 81 360 Louisiana Monroe 62 95%   
Mon, Dec 8 284 Grambling St. 68 224 Southern Miss 74 71%   
Wed, Dec 10 172 Marshall 80 128 Western Kentucky 81 51%   
Wed, Dec 10 199 Southern 71 237 Texas St. 72 54%   
Thu, Dec 11 282 Appalachian St. 66 266 East Carolina 69 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 3.5 29.2 17.9 13.7 10.2 8.2 6.2 4.8 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Arkansas St. 3.8 25.8 17.5 13.2 10.9 8.6 6.9 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
South Alabama 4.4 17.9 14.9 13.0 11.7 10.0 8.1 7.3 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
Marshall 4.8 15.2 14.2 12.7 11.3 9.8 8.6 7.7 6.5 5.2 3.9 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1
James Madison 5.1 12.7 12.7 11.9 11.3 10.4 9.1 8.4 7.0 5.9 4.4 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.2
Old Dominion 6.2 7.5 8.6 9.4 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.4 8.9 8.0 7.1 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.5
Southern Miss 6.6 6.3 7.4 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.2 9.7 9.8 8.8 8.0 6.7 4.9 2.3 1.0
Georgia Southern 6.8 5.6 6.9 7.5 8.6 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.3 8.4 6.9 5.0 2.7 0.9
Coastal Carolina 6.8 4.9 7.0 8.0 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.7 6.9 5.3 2.9 1.1
Texas St. 7.4 4.1 5.1 6.2 7.2 8.1 9.0 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 1.1
Appalachian St. 8.6 1.6 3.0 3.9 4.8 6.2 7.2 8.4 9.3 11.0 11.7 11.9 10.7 7.4 2.7
Louisiana 10.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.9 5.2 7.1 8.6 11.9 15.7 18.3 14.1 8.0
Georgia St. 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.1 7.6 11.8 17.6 26.6 20.6
Louisiana Monroe 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.3 4.0 7.4 13.4 25.1 44.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.7 9.9 12.4 15.6 15.4 13.6 9.8 6.0 2.5 0.6
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.4 10.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 12.7 8.8 5.1 1.8 0.4
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.9 9.9 12.8 14.6 15.0 13.2 10.1 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.2
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.8 7.8 10.7 13.2 14.4 14.5 12.2 9.0 5.3 2.5 0.8 0.1
James Madison 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.5 8.6 11.9 13.8 14.5 14.0 11.3 7.6 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.1
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 5.7 8.8 11.4 13.7 14.3 13.5 10.8 7.7 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Southern Miss 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.2 10.0 12.6 13.7 13.6 12.1 9.6 6.7 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.4 12.9 14.1 13.5 12.4 9.0 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 4.6 7.3 10.5 12.6 13.9 13.4 12.3 9.2 6.2 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 6.1 9.0 12.1 14.2 14.1 13.1 10.4 7.4 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.1 9.6 12.2 14.0 14.6 12.6 10.1 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.2 1.4 3.9 7.9 11.8 15.0 15.7 14.7 11.5 8.0 5.2 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 5 - 13 1.6 5.7 10.8 14.7 16.2 15.6 12.6 9.2 6.3 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 5.0 12.9 18.8 19.2 16.3 11.8 7.6 4.3 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 29.2% 18.8 7.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 25.8% 16.1 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 17.9% 10.5 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 15.2% 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
James Madison 12.7% 6.8 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 7.5% 3.7 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 6.3% 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 5.6% 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 4.9% 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 4.1% 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.6 7.7 2.5 0.2 79.4 0.0%
Arkansas St. 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.8 7.8 2.8 0.2 81.7 0.0%
South Alabama 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 5.8 2.5 0.2 86.6 0.0%
Marshall 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 3.9 0.6 87.5 0.0%
James Madison 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 3.4 0.4 89.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.0 94.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.9 94.6 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 0.8 95.9 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 0.6 96.1 0.0%
Texas St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.9 96.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 98.5 0.0%
Louisiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 20.6% 0.1% 20.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 18.4% 0.0% 18.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 13.4% 0.0% 13.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 12.5% 0.1% 12.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 10.6% 0.0% 10.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.9% 1.0% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.4% 0.2% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.4% 0.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.8
2nd Round 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0