Preseason Rankings
Iowa St.
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#109
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.5% 18.7% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 18.5% 18.7% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 32.1% 18.7% 3.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.5% 56.8% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.2% 53.5% 24.0%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 7.8
.500 or above 77.0% 77.3% 45.8%
.500 or above in Conference 50.2% 50.5% 22.0%
Conference Champion 6.4% 6.4% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 11.7% 26.9%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 0.1%
First Round55.3% 55.6% 27.2%
Second Round36.3% 36.6% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen17.3% 17.4% 4.6%
Elite Eight7.7% 7.8% 2.8%
Final Four3.5% 3.6% 0.1%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.9 - 5.41.9 - 5.4
Quad 1b2.6 - 2.94.5 - 8.4
Quad 24.7 - 2.79.2 - 11.1
Quad 33.9 - 0.913.0 - 12.0
Quad 45.8 - 0.218.8 - 12.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 325   Alabama St. W 86-64 99%    
  Nov 09, 2018 51   Missouri W 72-70 68%    
  Nov 12, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 87-71 96%    
  Nov 19, 2018 66   Arizona W 77-73 62%    
  Nov 20, 2018 76   Illinois W 81-76 66%    
  Nov 21, 2018 45   San Diego St. W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 26, 2018 253   Nebraska Omaha W 87-70 96%    
  Dec 03, 2018 199   North Dakota St. W 79-65 92%    
  Dec 06, 2018 34   @ Iowa W 81-80 41%    
  Dec 09, 2018 343   Southern W 85-59 99%    
  Dec 15, 2018 202   Drake W 82-68 88%    
  Dec 21, 2018 298   Eastern Illinois W 79-60 97%    
  Jan 02, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-73 56%    
  Jan 05, 2019 1   Kansas L 73-81 33%    
  Jan 08, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 73-71 46%    
  Jan 12, 2019 14   Kansas St. L 70-73 50%    
  Jan 16, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech L 71-72 40%    
  Jan 19, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 78-73 73%    
  Jan 21, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 73-81 18%    
  Jan 26, 2019 118   @ Mississippi W 82-74 67%    
  Jan 30, 2019 11   West Virginia L 74-78 48%    
  Feb 02, 2019 26   Texas L 70-71 58%    
  Feb 04, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 85-83 48%    
  Feb 09, 2019 28   TCU L 77-78 59%    
  Feb 16, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. L 70-73 31%    
  Feb 19, 2019 48   Baylor W 73-71 65%    
  Feb 23, 2019 28   @ TCU L 77-78 39%    
  Feb 25, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 85-83 67%    
  Mar 02, 2019 26   @ Texas L 70-71 38%    
  Mar 06, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 74-78 30%    
  Mar 09, 2019 29   Texas Tech L 71-72 59%    
Projected Record 18.8 - 12.2 8.6 - 9.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.9 2.8 0.3 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.6 2.0 0.3 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 7.6 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.5 5.6 7.5 8.7 10.0 11.6 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.5 5.3 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 92.2% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 77.1% 1.6    1.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 51.2% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.4% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 2.6 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.3% 100.0% 15.7% 84.2% 3.5 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.5% 99.6% 11.8% 87.8% 4.5 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-7 8.9% 97.1% 10.2% 86.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.7%
10-8 10.3% 93.1% 8.5% 84.6% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.5%
9-9 11.0% 79.2% 6.5% 72.7% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 77.8%
8-10 11.6% 54.5% 4.9% 49.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 52.2%
7-11 10.0% 22.6% 2.9% 19.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 20.3%
6-12 8.7% 7.6% 2.5% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 5.2%
5-13 7.5% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.8%
4-14 5.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
3-15 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
2-16 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 56.5% 7.1% 49.4% 6.0 2.5 4.0 5.9 6.1 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.2 4.4 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 43.5 53.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.1 19.9