Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#234
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 5.9% 1.9%
#1 Seed 13.3% 22.4% 8.6%
Top 2 Seed 26.8% 65.9% 41.5%
Top 4 Seed 49.8% 65.9% 41.5%
Top 6 Seed 66.6% 65.9% 41.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.0% 93.7% 80.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.0% 92.1% 77.1%
Average Seed 4.3 3.6 4.8
.500 or above 92.5% 97.4% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 88.3% 77.8%
Conference Champion 20.3% 27.3% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four1.4% 0.8% 1.7%
First Round84.5% 93.5% 79.9%
Second Round65.8% 77.0% 59.9%
Sweet Sixteen39.8% 50.2% 34.4%
Elite Eight22.3% 30.5% 18.1%
Final Four11.5% 17.2% 8.6%
Championship Game5.8% 9.4% 4.0%
National Champion2.8% 4.9% 1.7%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3.3 - 4.93.3 - 4.9
Quad 1b3.5 - 2.16.9 - 7.0
Quad 25.5 - 1.712.3 - 8.6
Quad 34.6 - 0.516.9 - 9.1
Quad 44.9 - 0.121.8 - 9.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 1   Kansas L 72-76 34%    
  Nov 11, 2018 179   Florida Gulf Coast W 83-67 96%    
  Nov 14, 2018 210   Louisiana Monroe W 78-60 97%    
  Nov 18, 2018 287   Tennessee Tech W 83-61 99%    
  Nov 22, 2018 50   UCLA W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 23, 2018 26   Texas W 70-67 61%    
  Nov 27, 2018 54   @ Louisville W 77-71 62%    
  Nov 30, 2018 140   @ Rutgers W 73-60 82%    
  Dec 03, 2018 34   Iowa W 80-76 73%    
  Dec 08, 2018 16   @ Florida W 72-70 45%    
  Dec 16, 2018 235   Green Bay W 86-66 97%    
  Dec 21, 2018 245   Oakland W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 29, 2018 186   Northern Illinois W 80-63 95%    
  Jan 02, 2019 62   Northwestern W 72-65 80%    
  Jan 05, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. W 73-68 57%    
  Jan 08, 2019 27   Purdue W 74-71 70%    
  Jan 13, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 74-67 62%    
  Jan 17, 2019 35   @ Nebraska W 74-70 54%    
  Jan 21, 2019 32   Maryland W 73-69 73%    
  Jan 24, 2019 34   @ Iowa W 80-76 55%    
  Jan 27, 2019 27   @ Purdue W 74-71 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 25   Indiana W 73-70 69%    
  Feb 05, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 80-71 68%    
  Feb 09, 2019 68   Minnesota W 79-71 81%    
  Feb 12, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin W 69-66 49%    
  Feb 17, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 73-68 74%    
  Feb 20, 2019 140   Rutgers W 73-60 91%    
  Feb 24, 2019 19   @ Michigan W 69-67 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 25   @ Indiana W 73-70 50%    
  Mar 05, 2019 35   Nebraska W 74-70 72%    
  Mar 09, 2019 19   Michigan W 69-67 66%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 9.2 12.4 - 6.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.3 4.9 3.3 1.1 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.2 4.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.1 4.1 1.3 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.2 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.2 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 10.1 11.2 11.9 11.9 10.2 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
18-2 99.1% 3.3    3.1 0.2
17-3 90.3% 4.9    4.0 0.9 0.0
16-4 66.1% 5.3    3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 38.5% 3.9    1.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.7% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 13.5 5.4 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.3% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.4 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.1% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.8 3.3 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.2% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 2.4 2.0 3.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.9% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.2 0.8 2.5 4.1 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 99.9% 16.2% 83.7% 4.2 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 11.2% 98.6% 12.2% 86.4% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.4%
11-9 10.1% 96.3% 10.1% 86.2% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 95.8%
10-10 8.2% 82.2% 10.1% 72.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 80.2%
9-11 6.5% 60.8% 6.9% 53.8% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 57.9%
8-12 4.7% 28.7% 5.3% 23.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 24.8%
7-13 3.2% 9.4% 2.9% 6.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 6.7%
6-14 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.2%
5-15 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 85.0% 16.9% 68.1% 4.3 13.3 13.5 12.8 10.2 9.3 7.5 5.6 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.0 82.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 94.9 5.1