Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#285
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.5% 0.6%
#1 Seed 8.3% 10.5% 3.1%
Top 2 Seed 18.1% 22.4% 8.1%
Top 4 Seed 38.2% 45.1% 22.0%
Top 6 Seed 54.8% 62.5% 37.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.9% 84.1% 63.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.6% 82.1% 61.2%
Average Seed 5.0 4.7 5.9
.500 or above 89.1% 93.5% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 83.4% 69.0%
Conference Champion 11.1% 13.2% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.7% 2.4%
First Four2.2% 1.9% 3.0%
First Round76.8% 83.2% 62.0%
Second Round58.5% 64.7% 43.9%
Sweet Sixteen33.6% 38.1% 22.9%
Elite Eight17.4% 20.2% 10.9%
Final Four8.4% 10.0% 4.7%
Championship Game4.1% 5.0% 2.0%
National Champion2.0% 2.5% 0.8%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 29   Cincinnati W 67-61 70%    
  Nov 10, 2019 263   Umass Lowell W 86-62 98%    
  Nov 13, 2019 11   Villanova W 67-65 56%    
  Nov 18, 2019 336   Stetson W 86-56 99.6%   
  Nov 22, 2019 241   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-63 97%    
  Nov 25, 2019 129   Kent St. W 78-62 92%    
  Nov 29, 2019 329   Morgan St. W 87-59 99%    
  Dec 04, 2019 5   @ North Carolina L 75-82 27%    
  Dec 07, 2019 43   Penn St. W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 15, 2019 70   @ Minnesota W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 17, 2019 294   Southeast Missouri St. W 83-58 99%    
  Dec 21, 2019 2   Kentucky L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 29, 2019 46   West Virginia W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 03, 2020 33   Wisconsin W 65-59 69%    
  Jan 07, 2020 9   @ Maryland L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 11, 2020 47   @ Indiana W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 14, 2020 88   Nebraska W 74-62 84%    
  Jan 18, 2020 43   @ Penn St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 23, 2020 70   Minnesota W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 26, 2020 99   @ Northwestern W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 47   Indiana W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 04, 2020 21   @ Michigan L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 09, 2020 33   @ Wisconsin W 63-62 50%    
  Feb 12, 2020 66   Rutgers W 72-62 79%    
  Feb 15, 2020 12   Purdue W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 20, 2020 39   @ Iowa W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 23, 2020 9   Maryland W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 27, 2020 88   @ Nebraska W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 01, 2020 21   Michigan W 67-62 66%    
  Mar 05, 2020 42   Illinois W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 08, 2020 1   @ Michigan St. L 65-75 20%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.3 11.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.5 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.4 2.7 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.1 6.8 8.9 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.4 9.6 7.5 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 96.0% 1.5    1.2 0.2
18-2 80.9% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 55.1% 3.1    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 30.4% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 11.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.5 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.2% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.6% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.8 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.5% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.4 1.5 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.6% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.2 0.8 2.0 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.4% 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 4.1 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 10.8% 99.0% 7.7% 91.2% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 10.8% 96.8% 4.8% 92.0% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.7%
11-9 10.3% 86.8% 3.0% 83.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 86.4%
10-10 8.9% 68.9% 1.6% 67.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 68.4%
9-11 6.8% 37.2% 1.3% 35.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 36.4%
8-12 5.1% 14.8% 0.4% 14.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.3 14.4%
7-13 3.8% 2.8% 0.4% 2.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 2.4%
6-14 2.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.3%
5-15 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.9% 9.5% 68.4% 5.0 8.3 9.8 11.0 9.1 8.8 7.9 6.6 5.7 4.1 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 22.1 75.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0