Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#175
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 10.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 20.8% 20.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.3% 46.4% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.7% 44.8% 15.4%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 9.4
.500 or above 73.2% 73.3% 24.4%
.500 or above in Conference 50.4% 50.4% 20.3%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 6.2% 29.1%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 3.7%
First Round44.5% 44.6% 11.7%
Second Round28.0% 28.0% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen12.3% 12.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.2% 0.0%
Final Four2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 34 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 350   Maryland Eastern Shore W 64-34 99.8%   
  Nov 09, 2019 331   Wagner W 77-52 99%    
  Nov 14, 2019 54   @ Georgetown L 77-79 43%    
  Nov 19, 2019 159   Bucknell W 81-67 89%    
  Nov 23, 2019 144   Yale W 82-69 87%    
  Nov 27, 2019 51   Mississippi W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 04, 2019 91   Wake Forest W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 07, 2019 14   @ Ohio St. L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 10, 2019 9   Maryland L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 14, 2019 45   Alabama W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 20, 2019 342   Central Connecticut St. W 86-59 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 282   Cornell W 81-60 96%    
  Jan 04, 2020 39   Iowa L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 07, 2020 66   @ Rutgers L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 33   Wisconsin W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 15, 2020 70   @ Minnesota W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 18, 2020 14   Ohio St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 22, 2020 21   @ Michigan L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 29, 2020 47   Indiana W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 88   @ Nebraska W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 04, 2020 1   @ Michigan St. L 66-80 12%    
  Feb 08, 2020 70   Minnesota W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 11, 2020 12   @ Purdue L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 15, 2020 99   Northwestern W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 18, 2020 42   Illinois W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 23, 2020 47   @ Indiana L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 26, 2020 66   Rutgers W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 39   @ Iowa L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 03, 2020 1   Michigan St. L 69-77 25%    
  Mar 07, 2020 99   @ Northwestern W 67-64 61%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 6.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.0 8.8 10.0 10.6 10.9 10.1 8.8 7.2 5.7 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 87.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 65.7% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 33.0% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
14-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 48.9% 51.1% 1.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.3% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.5% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 3.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.7% 99.4% 7.7% 91.7% 5.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 7.2% 97.9% 6.5% 91.4% 6.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.8%
12-8 8.8% 91.2% 3.4% 87.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 90.9%
11-9 10.1% 78.7% 2.0% 76.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 78.3%
10-10 10.9% 56.4% 0.6% 55.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.8 56.1%
9-11 10.6% 27.2% 0.5% 26.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.7 26.9%
8-12 10.0% 7.8% 0.4% 7.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.2 7.4%
7-13 8.8% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 1.2%
6-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0%
5-15 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 5.6
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 46.3% 2.9% 43.4% 6.9 1.1 1.8 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.8 5.5 5.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 53.7 44.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0