IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Texas
Conference USA
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.6	#95
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.2	#345
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.6	#83

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.0	#113

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	1.0%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	1.1%	3.0%	0.5%
Top 6 Seed	2.4%	5.7%	1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	23.5%	35.2%	19.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	8.3%	17.3%	5.6%
Average Seed	10.6	9.6	11.2

.500 or above	75.3%	88.8%	70.8%
.500 or above in Conference	81.7%	88.9%	79.4%
Conference Champion	22.8%	31.2%	20.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	0.3%	1.5%

First Four	2.4%	3.6%	2.1%
First Round	22.2%	33.4%	18.5%
Second Round	7.9%	14.5%	5.6%
Sweet Sixteen	2.5%	4.9%	1.7%
Elite Eight	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%
Final Four	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 2	2 - 3	3 - 6
Quad 3	6 - 3	9 - 9
Quad 4	6 - 1	14 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	46	@ Arkansas	L	67-74	25%
Dec 04, 2020	72	@ Mississippi St.	L	64-69	30%
Dec 17, 2020	339	Houston Baptist	W	90-67	98%
Dec 19, 2020	30	@ LSU	L	68-77	20%
Jan 01, 2021	131	UAB	W	68-61	72%
Jan 02, 2021	131	UAB	W	68-61	72%
Jan 08, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	W	75-73	57%
Jan 09, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	W	75-73	57%
Jan 15, 2021	161	UTEP	W	70-61	77%
Jan 16, 2021	161	UTEP	W	70-61	77%
Jan 22, 2021	118	@ Old Dominion	L	64-65	47%
Jan 23, 2021	118	@ Old Dominion	L	64-65	48%
Jan 28, 2021	265	@ Rice	W	75-66	76%
Jan 30, 2021	265	Rice	W	78-63	89%
Feb 05, 2021	109	Louisiana Tech	W	68-64	65%
Feb 06, 2021	109	Louisiana Tech	W	68-64	65%
Feb 12, 2021	229	@ Southern Miss	W	69-62	72%
Feb 13, 2021	229	@ Southern Miss	W	69-62	72%
Feb 19, 2021	82	Western Kentucky	W	70-68	56%
Feb 20, 2021	82	Western Kentucky	W	70-68	56%
Feb 25, 2021	110	@ Marshall	L	74-75	46%
Feb 27, 2021	110	@ Marshall	L	74-75	45%
Projected Record						13 - 9	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.7	4.7	6.3	5.5	3.3	1.0		22.8	1st
2nd												0.4	2.5	5.5	4.6	2.0	0.2	0.0			15.2	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	2.1	5.0	3.8	1.0	0.1					12.1	3rd
4th										0.1	1.5	4.1	3.3	0.8	0.0	0.0					9.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.4	3.4	0.8	0.0							8.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.7	3.3	0.9	0.0								7.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	1.7	3.2	1.2	0.1	0.0								6.3	7th
8th							0.0	0.7	2.5	1.6	0.1										4.9	8th
9th						0.1	0.5	1.9	1.6	0.2	0.0										4.2	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.1	1.6	0.4	0.0											3.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.0												2.3	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.1													1.6	12th
13th			0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1														1.0	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.6	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	2.0	3.0	4.7	6.6	8.5	9.8	11.0	11.9	11.8	10.3	8.3	5.7	3.3	1.0			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
17-1	99.8%	3.3		3.2	0.1
16-2	95.9%	5.5		4.8	0.6	0.0
15-3	75.5%	6.3		4.2	1.9	0.2
14-4	45.4%	4.7		2.0	2.1	0.5	0.1
13-5	14.3%	1.7		0.4	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.7%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	22.8%	22.8		15.7	5.5	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.0%		96.9%	59.6%	37.3%	5.1		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		92.2%
17-1	3.3%		87.5%	49.1%	38.5%	7.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.4		75.5%
16-2	5.7%		75.8%	43.9%	31.8%	9.5		0.0		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0			1.4		56.8%
15-3	8.3%		55.2%	33.3%	21.8%	10.7						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.3	1.3	0.3	0.0			3.7		32.8%
14-4	10.3%		37.0%	27.8%	9.2%	11.6							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0		6.5		12.7%
13-5	11.8%		24.6%	20.6%	4.0%	12.2									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0		8.9		5.1%
12-6	11.9%		15.6%	14.0%	1.5%	12.7											0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1		10.1		1.8%
11-7	11.0%		9.3%	8.9%	0.4%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.0		0.4%
10-8	9.8%		4.7%	4.6%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1		9.3		0.1%
9-9	8.5%		4.2%	4.2%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.2
8-10	6.6%		2.0%	2.0%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	6.4
7-11	4.7%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8																0.0	0.1	4.6
6-12	3.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
5-13	2.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
4-14	1.1%																							1.1
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		23.5%	16.5%	7.0%	10.6		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.7	2.4	4.1	5.8	3.3	1.1	0.5	0.2	76.5		8.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.1	31.0	37.9	21.8	9.2