IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#266
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.4	#264
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#239

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#288

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	10.2%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.9	14.4

.500 or above	24.6%	56.8%	23.6%
.500 or above in Conference	38.3%	61.9%	37.6%
Conference Champion	3.1%	13.6%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	13.5%	2.8%	13.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	2.2%	10.2%	1.9%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 6	10 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	38	@ Arizona	L	62-82	3%
Dec 03, 2020	132	Eastern Washington	L	75-80	32%
Dec 05, 2020	132	Eastern Washington	L	75-80	32%
Dec 10, 2020	208	UC Riverside	W	64-63	50%
Dec 12, 2020	1	@ Gonzaga	L	63-91	1%
Dec 21, 2020	143	Texas St.	L	64-71	26%
Dec 22, 2020	305	@ Denver	L	73-74	47%
Dec 31, 2020	322	@ Idaho	W	72-70	56%
Jan 02, 2021	322	@ Idaho	W	72-70	56%
Jan 07, 2021	299	Idaho St.	W	74-69	66%
Jan 09, 2021	299	Idaho St.	W	74-69	66%
Jan 14, 2021	140	@ Montana	L	65-76	18%
Jan 16, 2021	140	@ Montana	L	65-76	19%
Jan 21, 2021	209	Montana St.	W	70-69	51%
Jan 23, 2021	209	Montana St.	W	70-69	49%
Jan 28, 2021	166	Northern Colorado	L	66-69	41%
Jan 30, 2021	166	@ Northern Colorado	L	63-72	24%
Feb 04, 2021	230	@ Sacramento St.	L	62-67	34%
Feb 06, 2021	230	@ Sacramento St.	L	62-67	34%
Feb 11, 2021	252	Portland St.	W	78-76	58%
Feb 13, 2021	252	Portland St.	W	78-76	58%
Feb 18, 2021	256	@ Weber St.	L	69-72	39%
Feb 20, 2021	256	@ Weber St.	L	69-72	39%
Feb 25, 2021	192	@ Southern Utah	L	68-75	28%
Feb 27, 2021	192	Southern Utah	L	71-72	47%
Projected Record						10 - 15	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0		3.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.2	1.7	1.2	0.4	0.2	0.0				5.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.0	2.2	1.3	0.3	0.0						6.5	3rd
4th										0.1	1.0	2.8	3.1	1.3	0.2	0.0							8.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.0	3.3	3.4	1.3	0.2									9.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.6	3.8	4.0	1.5	0.1										11.1	6th
7th							0.2	1.8	4.3	3.9	1.3	0.2	0.0										11.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.1	4.7	3.7	1.1	0.1	0.0											12.3	8th
9th				0.1	0.7	2.9	4.5	3.4	1.0	0.1													12.6	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.3	3.2	3.4	2.3	0.5	0.0														11.0	10th
11th	0.2	1.0	2.0	2.6	2.0	0.9	0.2	0.0															9.0	11th

Total	0.2	1.0	2.4	3.9	5.9	7.7	9.4	10.5	10.6	10.1	9.8	8.4	6.8	5.0	3.5	2.2	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	94.9%	0.4		0.3	0.0
17-3	77.9%	0.5		0.5	0.1
16-4	65.2%	0.9		0.5	0.4	0.0	0.0
15-5	32.2%	0.7		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	9.5%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.1%	3.1		1.7	1.0	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																	0.0
19-1	0.1%		100.0%	100.0%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
18-2	0.4%		94.4%	94.4%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.0
17-3	0.7%		71.2%	70.1%	1.1%	14.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2		3.8%
16-4	1.3%		48.4%	48.4%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.7
15-5	2.2%		17.4%	17.4%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	1.8
14-6	3.5%		4.9%	4.9%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	3.3
13-7	5.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
12-8	6.8%																							6.8
11-9	8.4%																							8.4
10-10	9.8%																							9.8
9-11	10.1%																							10.1
8-12	10.6%																							10.6
7-13	10.5%																							10.5
6-14	9.4%																							9.4
5-15	7.7%																							7.7
4-16	5.9%																							5.9
3-17	3.9%																							3.9
2-18	2.4%																							2.4
1-19	1.0%																							1.0
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	14.3												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.2	97.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%