IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.4	#85
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.6	#304
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.1	#68

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.3	#103

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	1.9%	2.4%	0.4%
Top 6 Seed	3.6%	4.4%	0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	23.5%	27.1%	11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	16.5%	19.5%	6.9%
Average Seed	9.5	9.4	10.3

.500 or above	77.5%	83.1%	59.4%
.500 or above in Conference	63.8%	67.8%	50.5%
Conference Champion	7.9%	8.9%	4.6%
Last Place in Conference	2.7%	2.0%	4.8%

First Four	4.4%	5.0%	2.4%
First Round	21.1%	24.4%	10.2%
Second Round	9.2%	10.8%	4.1%
Sweet Sixteen	3.3%	4.0%	1.3%
Elite Eight	1.3%	1.5%	0.4%
Final Four	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Neutral) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 3	3 - 6
Quad 3	6 - 3	10 - 9
Quad 4	5 - 1	15 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	184	Towson	W	72-64	77%
Nov 26, 2020	136	Stephen F. Austin	W	75-70	66%
Nov 27, 2020	289	Army	W	77-63	90%
Dec 12, 2020	239	St. Francis (PA)	W	80-66	89%
Dec 19, 2020	152	Hofstra	W	76-67	78%
Dec 30, 2020	93	@ Rhode Island	L	72-74	42%
Jan 02, 2021	53	@ Richmond	L	69-75	29%
Jan 06, 2021	174	Saint Joseph's	W	80-70	81%
Jan 09, 2021	198	George Washington	W	74-62	84%
Jan 13, 2021	201	@ Fordham	W	65-59	69%
Jan 16, 2021	90	Duquesne	W	72-69	61%
Jan 16, 2021	47	Dayton	L	70-71	49%
Jan 20, 2021	53	Richmond	L	71-72	48%
Jan 23, 2021	52	@ Saint Louis	L	66-72	29%
Jan 30, 2021	81	@ Davidson	L	66-70	39%
Feb 03, 2021	174	@ Saint Joseph's	W	77-73	63%
Feb 06, 2021	123	George Mason	W	72-65	71%
Feb 14, 2021	128	@ Massachusetts	W	72-71	54%
Feb 17, 2021	99	Virginia Commonwealth	W	71-67	63%
Feb 21, 2021	198	@ George Washington	W	71-65	68%
Feb 24, 2021	157	La Salle	W	75-66	78%
Feb 28, 2021	47	Dayton	L	70-71	48%
Mar 03, 2021	90	@ Duquesne	L	69-72	42%
Projected Record						14 - 9	10 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.4	1.3	2.4	2.1	1.3	0.3			7.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.2	3.9	2.3	0.6	0.1				9.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	2.6	4.3	2.5	0.4	0.0					10.3	3rd
4th										0.3	2.5	4.7	2.7	0.4	0.0						10.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.9	5.3	3.2	0.4	0.0							10.9	5th
6th								0.1	1.4	4.7	3.3	0.7									10.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.7	3.5	0.9	0.0									8.8	7th
8th							0.4	2.7	4.0	1.2	0.1										8.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	1.5	3.5	1.5	0.1											6.8	9th
10th					0.1	0.8	2.5	1.8	0.2												5.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.6	1.8	1.5	0.3													4.2	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	1.1	1.3	0.5	0.0													3.3	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.8	0.9	0.4	0.0														2.3	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0															1.4	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.7	1.7	2.9	4.4	6.4	9.1	10.9	11.6	12.6	11.7	10.1	8.1	5.1	2.8	1.4	0.3				Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3
16-2	96.0%	1.3		1.2	0.1
15-3	76.3%	2.1		1.5	0.5	0.1
14-4	46.4%	2.4		1.1	0.9	0.3	0.0
13-5	16.4%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.8%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.9%	7.9		4.5	2.3	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.3%		100.0%	43.0%	57.0%	2.7		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0											100.0%
16-2	1.4%		99.9%	44.2%	55.7%	4.3		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.9%
15-3	2.8%		98.2%	38.7%	59.5%	6.6		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		97.0%
14-4	5.1%		86.1%	26.8%	59.3%	8.7			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.6	1.0	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.0				0.7		81.1%
13-5	8.1%		68.1%	19.2%	48.9%	10.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.3	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.0			2.6		60.5%
12-6	10.1%		43.5%	14.6%	28.9%	10.9							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.4	1.3	0.2	0.0			5.7		33.9%
11-7	11.7%		22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	11.5								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.0			9.0		15.7%
10-8	12.6%		9.6%	4.6%	5.0%	11.8										0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.0			11.4		5.3%
9-9	11.6%		4.4%	2.6%	1.8%	12.2										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0		11.1		1.8%
8-10	10.9%		2.0%	1.6%	0.4%	12.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		10.7		0.4%
7-11	9.1%		1.0%	1.0%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		9.0
6-12	6.4%		0.4%	0.4%		15.5														0.0		0.0	0.0	6.4
5-13	4.4%																							4.4
4-14	2.9%																							2.9
3-15	1.7%																							1.7
2-16	0.7%																							0.7
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	9.5		0.3	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.7	2.9	3.5	4.7	4.7	1.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	76.5		16.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.0	38.2	36.3	16.7	8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.8	35.3	47.1	15.7	2.0