IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
America East
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.1	#224
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.1	#87
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.0	#308

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.9	#142

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.3%	10.6%	5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.6	15.2

.500 or above	59.2%	72.3%	45.1%
.500 or above in Conference	68.1%	75.0%	60.7%
Conference Champion	8.6%	11.3%	5.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.0%	3.0%	7.2%

First Four	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
First Round	7.4%	9.6%	5.0%
Second Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Away) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 4	12 - 6	14 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	294	@ Bryant	W	74-73	52%
Nov 28, 2020	268	Fairfield	W	64-59	68%
Dec 01, 2020	311	Sacred Heart	W	76-68	77%
Dec 09, 2020	152	@ Hofstra	L	68-76	25%
Dec 12, 2020	294	Bryant	W	76-70	72%
Dec 19, 2020	329	@ Binghamton	W	75-70	68%
Dec 20, 2020	329	@ Binghamton	W	75-70	67%
Dec 22, 2020	201	@ Fordham	L	60-64	35%
Dec 27, 2020	279	Umass Lowell	W	79-73	69%
Dec 28, 2020	279	Umass Lowell	W	79-73	68%
Jan 02, 2021	202	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	70-68	54%
Jan 03, 2021	202	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	70-68	55%
Jan 09, 2021	264	@ Albany	L	69-70	47%
Jan 10, 2021	264	@ Albany	L	69-70	47%
Jan 16, 2021	205	New Hampshire	W	70-68	56%
Jan 17, 2021	205	New Hampshire	W	70-68	57%
Jan 23, 2021	217	@ NJIT	L	67-70	39%
Jan 24, 2021	217	@ NJIT	L	67-70	39%
Jan 30, 2021	96	@ Vermont	L	62-75	15%
Jan 31, 2021	96	@ Vermont	L	62-75	14%
Feb 18, 2021	267	Hartford	W	71-66	66%
Feb 19, 2021	267	Hartford	W	71-66	67%
Feb 27, 2021	328	@ Maine	W	68-63	66%
Feb 28, 2021	328	@ Maine	W	68-63	66%
Projected Record						13 - 11	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.6	1.6	2.7	2.4	1.0	0.2		8.6	1st
2nd									0.0	0.5	2.7	5.9	5.7	3.0	0.7				18.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.0	4.4	7.1	3.9	1.2	0.1					17.7	3rd
4th							0.0	1.2	5.2	6.6	2.7	0.4	0.0						16.2	4th
5th						0.0	1.1	5.0	5.3	1.8	0.1								13.3	5th
6th					0.1	1.1	4.1	3.7	1.2	0.0									10.3	6th
7th			0.0	0.2	1.2	3.2	2.3	0.6	0.1										7.6	7th
8th		0.0	0.2	1.3	1.9	1.4	0.3	0.0											5.1	8th
9th	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.0	0.5	0.0													2.7	9th

Total	0.1	0.4	0.9	2.4	3.8	5.7	7.9	10.6	12.7	13.4	12.7	10.7	8.5	5.8	3.1	1.0	0.2			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
15-1	100.0%	1.0		0.9	0.1
14-2	76.0%	2.4		1.7	0.7	0.0
13-3	47.0%	2.7		1.4	1.1	0.2	0.0
12-4	18.9%	1.6		0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0
11-5	5.7%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1
10-6	0.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	8.6%	8.6		4.9	2.8	0.8	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		58.3%	48.1%	10.2%	11.5					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		19.7%
15-1	1.0%		36.4%	35.5%	0.9%	13.0												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.6		1.4%
14-2	3.1%		33.3%	33.0%	0.3%	13.8													0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	2.1		0.4%
13-3	5.8%		25.5%	25.5%		14.3													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	4.3
12-4	8.5%		17.4%	17.4%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	7.0
11-5	10.7%		12.3%	12.3%		15.2														0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	9.4
10-6	12.7%		8.7%	8.7%		15.6															0.0	0.3	0.7	11.6
9-7	13.4%		5.1%	5.1%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	12.7
8-8	12.7%		2.5%	2.5%		15.9																0.0	0.3	12.4
7-9	10.6%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.3
6-10	7.9%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	7.8
5-11	5.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
4-12	3.8%																							3.8
3-13	2.4%																							2.4
2-14	0.9%																							0.9
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	14.8					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.3	0.8	1.7	2.6	2.8	91.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	66.7%	12.5												33.3	33.3