IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#153
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.5	#23
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.4	#88

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#254

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.1%	12.0%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.7%	3.6%	0.4%
Average Seed	12.5	10.9	12.9

.500 or above	54.3%	79.8%	52.0%
.500 or above in Conference	51.1%	67.9%	49.6%
Conference Champion	2.9%	5.7%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.8%	2.6%	6.1%

First Four	0.5%	1.5%	0.4%
First Round	4.9%	11.0%	4.3%
Second Round	1.1%	4.0%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	1.2%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 9
Quad 4	6 - 2	11 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	29	@ Oklahoma	L	75-89	9%
Nov 28, 2020	231	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	83-81	57%
Dec 16, 2020	115	@ Oregon St.	L	75-81	29%
Dec 22, 2020	236	Lamar	W	84-76	76%
Jan 01, 2021	265	@ Rice	W	86-82	63%
Jan 02, 2021	265	@ Rice	W	86-82	63%
Jan 08, 2021	95	North Texas	L	73-75	43%
Jan 09, 2021	95	North Texas	L	73-75	43%
Jan 15, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	75-82	29%
Jan 16, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	75-82	29%
Jan 21, 2021	229	Southern Miss	W	81-73	75%
Jan 23, 2021	229	Southern Miss	W	81-73	74%
Jan 28, 2021	161	UTEP	W	79-75	62%
Jan 30, 2021	161	@ UTEP	L	76-78	42%
Feb 11, 2021	191	Florida Atlantic	W	82-76	67%
Feb 13, 2021	191	Florida Atlantic	W	82-76	68%
Feb 19, 2021	164	@ Charlotte	L	75-77	43%
Feb 20, 2021	164	@ Charlotte	L	75-77	43%
Feb 25, 2021	131	UAB	W	78-76	55%
Feb 27, 2021	131	UAB	W	78-76	55%
Projected Record						10 - 10	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.3				2.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.2	2.1	1.5	0.4	0.1				5.4	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.5	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.0					7.1	3rd
4th										0.1	1.6	3.7	2.3	0.4	0.0						8.1	4th
5th									0.0	1.2	4.3	3.6	0.7	0.0							9.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	3.6	4.3	0.9	0.0								9.5	6th
7th								0.3	2.8	4.5	1.4	0.1									9.1	7th
8th							0.1	1.7	5.0	2.4	0.2										9.4	8th
9th						0.1	1.2	4.1	3.0	0.3											8.7	9th
10th					0.1	0.7	3.2	3.5	0.7	0.0											8.2	10th
11th			0.0	0.0	0.5	2.3	3.3	1.2	0.0												7.4	11th
12th			0.0	0.5	1.9	2.8	1.2	0.1													6.5	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.4	1.8	0.9	0.1														4.7	13th
14th	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0														3.1	14th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.4	2.9	4.7	7.0	9.2	10.9	12.2	12.1	12.0	10.1	7.4	5.1	2.8	1.3	0.4					Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	83.9%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-3	69.7%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.0
14-4	34.0%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
13-5	12.8%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0		0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.9%	2.9		1.2	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.4%		62.8%	32.5%	30.3%	7.5		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		44.9%
15-3	1.3%		50.4%	31.9%	18.5%	10.3					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.6		27.2%
14-4	2.8%		28.8%	22.6%	6.2%	11.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1			2.0		8.0%
13-5	5.1%		17.4%	15.3%	2.1%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	4.2		2.5%
12-6	7.4%		11.8%	11.3%	0.5%	13.0											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	6.5		0.5%
11-7	10.1%		7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	13.5												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	9.4		0.0%
10-8	12.0%		3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	11.6		0.0%
9-9	12.1%		2.0%	2.0%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.9
8-10	12.2%		1.0%	1.0%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	12.1
7-11	10.9%		0.7%	0.7%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8
6-12	9.2%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	9.2
5-13	7.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.0
4-14	4.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
3-15	2.9%																							2.9
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.1%	4.5%	0.7%	12.5		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.1	1.3	1.0	0.5	0.2	94.9		0.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%