IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.2	#99
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.7	#126
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.5	#154

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.7	#62

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.8%	1.1%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	2.2%	2.9%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	17.7%	21.6%	8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	13.1%	16.2%	5.9%
Average Seed	9.6	9.4	10.4

.500 or above	53.2%	61.9%	32.3%
.500 or above in Conference	39.0%	44.0%	27.1%
Conference Champion	2.6%	3.2%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	6.8%	5.2%	10.8%

First Four	3.0%	3.7%	1.4%
First Round	16.1%	19.5%	7.7%
Second Round	6.6%	8.2%	2.5%
Sweet Sixteen	1.9%	2.4%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.6%	0.8%	0.2%
Final Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Neutral) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 9
Quad 3	5 - 3	9 - 12
Quad 4	4 - 1	13 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	164	Charlotte	W	70-64	71%
Nov 27, 2020	20	@ Tennessee	L	62-74	14%
Dec 02, 2020	62	@ Penn St.	L	70-77	26%
Dec 05, 2020	257	Mount St. Mary's	W	72-58	90%
Dec 12, 2020	118	Old Dominion	W	70-65	66%
Dec 15, 2020	182	Western Carolina	W	82-73	79%
Dec 18, 2020	185	Louisiana	W	81-71	80%
Dec 22, 2020	30	@ LSU	L	72-82	20%
Dec 30, 2020	174	@ Saint Joseph's	W	78-75	60%
Jan 02, 2021	81	Davidson	W	69-68	54%
Jan 06, 2021	123	@ George Mason	L	69-70	48%
Jan 09, 2021	93	Rhode Island	W	75-73	59%
Jan 13, 2021	198	@ George Washington	W	71-67	65%
Jan 16, 2021	53	@ Richmond	L	69-77	26%
Jan 23, 2021	47	Dayton	L	70-72	44%
Feb 03, 2021	93	@ Rhode Island	L	72-76	38%
Feb 07, 2021	90	@ Duquesne	L	69-73	38%
Feb 12, 2021	53	Richmond	L	72-74	45%
Feb 15, 2021	201	Fordham	W	68-57	82%
Feb 17, 2021	85	@ St. Bonaventure	L	67-71	37%
Feb 20, 2021	123	George Mason	W	72-67	68%
Feb 23, 2021	52	Saint Louis	L	68-70	45%
Feb 27, 2021	81	@ Davidson	L	66-71	35%
Mar 03, 2021	47	@ Dayton	L	67-75	25%
Projected Record						12 - 12	8 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1				2.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.5	1.7	0.6	0.0					4.3	2nd
3rd											0.4	2.0	2.3	0.7	0.0						5.3	3rd
4th										0.3	2.1	3.2	1.1	0.1							6.7	4th
5th									0.2	1.8	3.9	1.7	0.1	0.0							7.8	5th
6th								0.1	1.5	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.0								8.7	6th
7th							0.0	1.0	4.1	3.8	0.5	0.0									9.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	3.7	4.8	1.1	0.0										10.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.8	5.1	1.8	0.1											10.3	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	2.2	4.5	2.4	0.2												9.7	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	1.5	3.8	2.7	0.4													8.5	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	1.3	3.0	2.5	0.6	0.0													7.6	12th
13th	0.0	0.2	1.1	2.1	1.8	0.5	0.0														5.7	13th
14th	0.3	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.0															3.3	14th

Total	0.3	1.0	2.6	4.3	6.7	9.5	11.3	12.7	12.6	11.3	9.4	7.5	5.2	3.2	1.7	0.6	0.1					Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	94.5%	0.5		0.5	0.1	0.0
14-4	61.9%	1.0		0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	22.2%	0.7		0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	3.8%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.6%	2.6		1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.1%		100.0%	76.1%	23.9%	1.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
15-3	0.6%		99.7%	47.7%	52.0%	4.9		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.3%
14-4	1.7%		94.1%	27.2%	66.9%	6.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.1		92.0%
13-5	3.2%		87.7%	22.5%	65.1%	8.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.4		84.1%
12-6	5.2%		69.5%	19.4%	50.2%	9.5					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.1				1.6		62.2%
11-7	7.5%		52.1%	12.5%	39.6%	10.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.1	0.0			3.6		45.3%
10-8	9.4%		28.8%	6.9%	21.9%	11.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.9	0.2	0.0			6.7		23.5%
9-9	11.3%		12.6%	4.6%	8.0%	11.3									0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.1	0.0			9.9		8.3%
8-10	12.6%		5.2%	2.6%	2.5%	11.7									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		12.0		2.6%
7-11	12.7%		1.8%	1.5%	0.3%	12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.5		0.3%
6-12	11.3%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.2		0.0%
5-13	9.5%		0.2%	0.2%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.5
4-14	6.7%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7														0.0			0.0	6.7
3-15	4.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
2-16	2.6%																							2.6
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		17.7%	5.3%	12.4%	9.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.1	1.4	2.6	3.0	3.5	3.0	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.1	82.3		13.1%