Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#267
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.2#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#310
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 10.2% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.5 14.7
.500 or above 35.6% 76.7% 33.8%
.500 or above in Conference 36.8% 68.7% 35.4%
Conference Champion 3.0% 11.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 16.1% 3.5% 16.7%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round3.0% 9.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 57-75 4%    
  Nov 11, 2022 336   @ Coppin St. W 70-67 61%    
  Nov 18, 2022 37   @ USC L 53-74 4%    
  Nov 20, 2022 273   @ Cal Poly L 59-62 41%    
  Nov 22, 2022 228   @ Pacific L 62-68 32%    
  Nov 26, 2022 246   @ Navy L 57-62 34%    
  Dec 01, 2022 145   @ St. Peter's L 55-65 20%    
  Dec 03, 2022 218   Rider L 64-65 49%    
  Dec 06, 2022 312   American W 66-59 71%    
  Dec 10, 2022 297   Loyola Maryland W 64-59 67%    
  Dec 18, 2022 277   Robert Morris W 68-64 62%    
  Dec 21, 2022 332   @ Howard W 72-69 58%    
  Dec 30, 2022 239   @ Niagara L 59-64 34%    
  Jan 01, 2023 290   @ Canisius L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 08, 2023 296   @ Marist L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 13, 2023 227   Manhattan W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 15, 2023 221   Quinnipiac L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 20, 2023 244   @ Siena L 60-65 35%    
  Jan 22, 2023 296   Marist W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 26, 2023 222   Fairfield L 60-61 49%    
  Jan 28, 2023 145   St. Peter's L 58-62 38%    
  Feb 03, 2023 101   @ Iona L 60-74 14%    
  Feb 05, 2023 221   @ Quinnipiac L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 10, 2023 244   Siena W 63-62 53%    
  Feb 12, 2023 222   @ Fairfield L 58-64 31%    
  Feb 17, 2023 239   Niagara W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 19, 2023 290   Canisius W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 24, 2023 101   Iona L 63-71 28%    
  Feb 26, 2023 218   @ Rider L 62-68 31%    
  Mar 04, 2023 227   @ Manhattan L 63-69 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.5 1.7 2.6 3.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 11th
Total 0.5 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.8 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.6 7.5 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 94.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.4% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 49.4% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.8% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 69.7% 69.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 45.8% 35.6% 10.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.8%
18-2 0.4% 32.8% 32.1% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9%
17-3 0.9% 29.4% 29.1% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4%
16-4 1.7% 19.3% 19.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
15-5 2.6% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2
14-6 3.6% 10.4% 10.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
13-7 4.9% 8.2% 8.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5
12-8 6.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.1
11-9 7.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.2
10-10 8.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.3
9-11 9.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
8-12 9.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.6
7-13 9.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.5
6-14 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.0
4-16 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
3-17 4.9% 4.9
2-18 3.0% 3.0
1-19 1.7% 1.7
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%