Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#239
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#257
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#268
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#207
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.8% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 15.1
.500 or above 36.2% 47.5% 22.8%
.500 or above in Conference 48.1% 55.9% 38.9%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.2% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 5.2% 10.1%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round4.0% 5.4% 2.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 410 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 309   @ Elon W 67-66 54%    
  Nov 13, 2023 88   @ Butler L 59-72 13%    
  Nov 17, 2023 149   Davidson L 65-67 42%    
  Nov 22, 2023 187   @ Cleveland St. L 64-70 29%    
  Nov 24, 2023 338   Alabama A&M W 73-63 81%    
  Nov 29, 2023 153   @ Appalachian St. L 60-68 24%    
  Dec 03, 2023 221   @ Jacksonville St. L 64-68 37%    
  Dec 10, 2023 289   Tennessee Tech W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 20, 2023 286   UMKC W 66-60 69%    
  Dec 22, 2023 83   @ Utah St. L 64-77 13%    
  Dec 29, 2023 146   @ East Carolina L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 03, 2024 237   Mercer W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 06, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-70 20%    
  Jan 10, 2024 205   Western Carolina W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 13, 2024 104   @ Furman L 66-77 18%    
  Jan 17, 2024 242   @ Wofford L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 20, 2024 197   Chattanooga W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 24, 2024 351   @ VMI W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 165   Samford L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 31, 2024 237   @ Mercer L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 03, 2024 320   The Citadel W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 07, 2024 242   Wofford W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 104   Furman L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 14, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga L 67-73 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 21, 2024 351   VMI W 75-63 83%    
  Feb 24, 2024 165   @ Samford L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 28, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 70-68 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro L 63-67 38%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.8 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.3 5.5 8.0 9.7 11.1 11.7 11.9 10.4 8.7 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 76.9% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 43.8% 1.3    0.6 0.7 0.1
13-5 17.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 74.8% 66.4% 8.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0%
17-1 0.2% 49.9% 47.3% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9%
16-2 0.7% 37.5% 36.4% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.9%
15-3 1.7% 22.4% 22.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.0% 20.0% 20.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-5 4.6% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.0
12-6 6.7% 8.5% 8.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.2
11-7 8.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.2
10-8 10.4% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.0
9-9 11.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.5
8-10 11.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.5
7-11 11.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.0
6-12 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-13 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%