IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.8	#305
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.8	#83
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#295

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.0%	4.5%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.9	15.3

.500 or above	28.4%	56.4%	25.8%
.500 or above in Conference	32.9%	52.5%	31.1%
Conference Champion	1.9%	4.9%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	14.1%	6.0%	14.8%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%
First Round	1.7%	4.1%	1.5%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 8	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2023	109	@ DePaul	L	68-83	9%
Nov 12, 2023	291	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	72-70	58%
Nov 17, 2023	231	Northern Arizona	L	72-76	35%
Nov 22, 2023	92	@ San Francisco	L	66-82	7%
Nov 29, 2023	340	Green Bay	W	74-68	71%
Dec 02, 2023	256	@ Oakland	L	72-78	31%
Dec 06, 2023	344	@ Southern Indiana	W	76-75	53%
Dec 09, 2023	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	80-77	61%
Dec 16, 2023	349	Bethune-Cookman	W	78-70	74%
Dec 20, 2023	69	@ Pittsburgh	L	64-83	6%
Dec 29, 2023	183	Northern Kentucky	L	64-68	36%
Dec 31, 2023	265	Detroit Mercy	W	76-75	53%
Jan 06, 2024	131	Wright St.	L	75-82	27%
Jan 10, 2024	212	@ Youngstown St.	L	73-81	24%
Jan 12, 2024	285	@ Robert Morris	L	68-72	36%
Jan 17, 2024	347	IUPUI	W	75-68	73%
Jan 20, 2024	187	@ Cleveland St.	L	66-76	20%
Jan 25, 2024	183	@ Northern Kentucky	L	61-71	20%
Feb 01, 2024	217	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	78-80	42%
Feb 04, 2024	212	Youngstown St.	L	76-78	42%
Feb 07, 2024	187	Cleveland St.	L	69-73	37%
Feb 10, 2024	347	@ IUPUI	W	72-71	55%
Feb 14, 2024	256	Oakland	W	76-75	52%
Feb 17, 2024	265	@ Detroit Mercy	L	73-78	34%
Feb 23, 2024	340	@ Green Bay	W	71-70	51%
Feb 25, 2024	217	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	75-83	25%
Feb 28, 2024	131	@ Wright St.	L	72-85	14%
Mar 02, 2024	285	Robert Morris	W	71-69	57%
Projected Record						11 - 17	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0				3.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.4	1.4	1.9	1.1	0.3	0.0						5.2	3rd
4th										0.1	0.7	2.2	2.8	1.2	0.2	0.0							7.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.0	3.0	3.3	1.3	0.2	0.0								8.8	5th
6th								0.2	1.3	3.7	4.0	1.4	0.2	0.0									10.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.1	4.6	4.0	1.5	0.1	0.0										12.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.6	2.8	5.0	3.9	1.3	0.1	0.0											13.7	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.2	3.6	5.2	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0												14.3	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	2.0	3.8	3.8	2.1	0.5	0.0														12.8	10th
11th	0.3	1.1	2.3	2.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.0															9.1	11th

Total	0.3	1.1	2.9	4.9	6.8	8.7	10.5	10.9	10.9	10.1	9.3	7.5	5.9	4.1	2.9	1.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	88.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	77.9%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	57.2%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	29.6%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	9.0%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.9%	1.9		1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																	0.0						0.0
19-1	0.1%		25.9%	25.9%		12.4													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
18-2	0.1%		34.4%	34.4%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-3	0.4%		32.7%	32.7%		13.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
16-4	0.9%		17.8%	17.8%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.7
15-5	1.7%		13.8%	13.8%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.5
14-6	2.9%		10.7%	10.7%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.6
13-7	4.1%		6.1%	6.1%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	3.9
12-8	5.9%		5.1%	5.1%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.2	5.6
11-9	7.5%		2.6%	2.6%		15.9																0.0	0.2	7.3
10-10	9.3%		1.6%	1.6%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.1
9-11	10.1%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.0
8-12	10.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	10.8
7-13	10.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
6-14	10.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
5-15	8.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
4-16	6.8%																							6.8
3-17	4.9%																							4.9
2-18	2.9%																							2.9
1-19	1.1%																							1.1
0-20	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	15.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	98.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%