Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#284
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 6.4% 2.5%
#1 Seed 15.2% 23.4% 10.5%
Top 2 Seed 29.3% 42.2% 22.0%
Top 4 Seed 51.8% 66.5% 43.4%
Top 6 Seed 65.9% 79.7% 57.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.3% 92.5% 78.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.0% 91.0% 75.6%
Average Seed 4.2 3.5 4.7
.500 or above 88.3% 95.6% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 88.4% 77.8%
Conference Champion 14.4% 19.7% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four3.8% 2.3% 4.7%
First Round81.7% 91.5% 76.1%
Second Round67.0% 78.7% 60.2%
Sweet Sixteen42.6% 53.0% 36.7%
Elite Eight24.0% 31.9% 19.5%
Final Four12.9% 18.1% 10.0%
Championship Game6.8% 10.0% 5.0%
National Champion3.5% 5.3% 2.5%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 6   @ Gonzaga L 73-77 36%    
  Nov 09, 2024 15   Arkansas W 76-74 59%    
  Nov 12, 2024 119   Sam Houston St. W 79-63 93%    
  Nov 17, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 21, 2024 18   St. John's W 75-72 62%    
  Nov 27, 2024 346   New Orleans W 91-60 99.6%   
  Dec 04, 2024 1   @ Connecticut L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 09, 2024 184   Abilene Christian W 82-62 96%    
  Dec 11, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 81-58 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 77   Utah W 79-67 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 07, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 14, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 19, 2025 53   TCU W 79-69 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 39   Kansas St. W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 77   @ Utah W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 28, 2025 32   @ BYU W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 2   Kansas W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 71   Central Florida W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 10, 2025 3   @ Houston L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 65   West Virginia W 78-67 81%    
  Feb 17, 2025 11   Arizona W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 79   @ Colorado W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 25, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 76-64 84%    
  Mar 04, 2025 53   @ TCU W 76-72 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   Houston W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 3.9 3.5 1.8 0.5 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.7 3.7 1.1 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.4 0.7 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.1 1.0 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.2 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.6 10.7 11.6 11.1 10.2 8.6 5.9 3.9 1.9 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 99.2% 1.8    1.7 0.1
18-2 89.9% 3.5    2.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 65.4% 3.9    2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 36.7% 3.1    1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.4% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 9.1 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.9% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.9% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.2 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.9% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.5 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.6% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.9 3.4 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.2% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.5 2.1 3.5 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.1% 99.9% 14.0% 86.0% 3.2 0.9 2.5 3.4 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.6% 99.7% 7.9% 91.9% 4.3 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 10.7% 98.9% 5.3% 93.6% 5.4 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-9 9.6% 93.8% 3.2% 90.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 93.6%
10-10 7.7% 78.7% 2.0% 76.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 78.3%
9-11 6.2% 47.6% 1.1% 46.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 47.0%
8-12 4.6% 19.6% 0.6% 19.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 19.1%
7-13 3.3% 3.9% 0.2% 3.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1 3.7%
6-14 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.5%
5-15 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 83.3% 12.0% 71.2% 4.2 15.2 14.1 12.5 10.0 8.2 5.9 4.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 81.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.6 24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 86.1 13.9