Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#83
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.6#33
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 3.0% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 5.8% 6.6% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 26.0% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.2% 24.6% 9.4%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 9.0
.500 or above 55.4% 60.1% 29.6%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 42.6% 23.9%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 8.1% 17.4%
First Four4.6% 5.0% 2.7%
First Round21.1% 23.4% 8.5%
Second Round11.2% 12.5% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 7
Quad 24 - 57 - 12
Quad 35 - 212 - 15
Quad 44 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 174   Northern Kentucky W 80-69 85%    
  Nov 09, 2024 211   Rice W 79-69 82%    
  Nov 12, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 80-67 89%    
  Nov 15, 2024 25   Florida L 81-83 43%    
  Nov 19, 2024 155   Hofstra W 78-68 81%    
  Nov 22, 2024 130   Temple W 77-72 67%    
  Nov 24, 2024 116   Massachusetts W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 03, 2024 54   @ LSU L 75-80 32%    
  Dec 07, 2024 49   @ North Carolina St. L 73-79 32%    
  Dec 14, 2024 175   Tulane W 87-79 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 189   Winthrop W 81-70 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 50   Louisville W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 56   Syracuse W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 07, 2025 36   @ Miami (FL) L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 43   @ Clemson L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 15, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 80   Georgia Tech W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 109   @ California W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 93   @ Stanford L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 74   Virginia Tech W 77-74 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   @ Boston College W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 66   Notre Dame W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 12, 2025 41   @ Wake Forest L 74-81 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 43   Clemson L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 36   Miami (FL) L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 50   @ Louisville L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 24, 2025 7   North Carolina L 77-83 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Duke L 67-81 12%    
  Mar 04, 2025 57   @ Virginia L 61-66 34%    
  Mar 07, 2025 78   SMU W 78-75 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.1 0.2 5.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.5 1.7 0.1 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.3 0.2 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 17th
18th 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.7 18th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.9 5.6 7.5 9.2 10.1 10.6 10.3 9.7 8.6 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 97.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 88.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 61.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 35.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 10.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 99.7% 19.8% 79.9% 3.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-4 1.5% 99.8% 16.4% 83.4% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 2.5% 97.3% 10.3% 87.0% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.0%
14-6 3.8% 92.9% 6.6% 86.3% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 92.4%
13-7 5.4% 78.9% 3.7% 75.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.2 78.0%
12-8 6.9% 60.8% 2.5% 58.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 59.8%
11-9 8.6% 39.7% 1.4% 38.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.2 5.2 38.8%
10-10 9.7% 23.0% 0.8% 22.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 22.3%
9-11 10.3% 5.6% 0.4% 5.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.7 5.3%
8-12 10.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.8%
7-13 10.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.1%
6-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 7.5% 7.5
4-16 5.6% 5.6
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 23.5% 1.7% 21.9% 8.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 76.5 22.2%