Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.9#2
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.4% 10.4% 0.7%
#1 Seed 32.2% 32.3% 11.0%
Top 2 Seed 52.8% 53.1% 19.6%
Top 4 Seed 74.7% 75.0% 41.2%
Top 6 Seed 84.8% 85.0% 52.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.3% 94.5% 73.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.8% 92.9% 71.2%
Average Seed 3.0 3.0 4.8
.500 or above 96.3% 96.4% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 92.4% 73.5%
Conference Champion 28.9% 29.0% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 4.0%
First Round93.5% 93.7% 71.6%
Second Round83.6% 83.8% 56.1%
Sweet Sixteen59.7% 59.9% 31.2%
Elite Eight38.3% 38.5% 16.1%
Final Four23.3% 23.4% 8.1%
Championship Game14.0% 14.0% 3.8%
National Champion8.1% 8.1% 1.6%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 7
Quad 27 - 117 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 249   Howard W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 08, 2024 7   North Carolina W 80-75 69%    
  Nov 12, 2024 24   Michigan St. W 74-67 72%    
  Nov 16, 2024 146   Oakland W 84-63 97%    
  Nov 19, 2024 157   UNC Wilmington W 83-61 97%    
  Nov 26, 2024 4   Duke W 73-72 52%    
  Nov 30, 2024 165   Furman W 87-65 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 13   @ Creighton W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 08, 2024 58   @ Missouri W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 14, 2024 49   North Carolina St. W 80-68 85%    
  Dec 22, 2024 181   Brown W 85-62 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 65   West Virginia W 82-69 87%    
  Jan 05, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 08, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 82-68 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 15, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 39   Kansas St. W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 22, 2025 53   @ TCU W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   Houston W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 28, 2025 71   Central Florida W 81-67 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 9   @ Baylor L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 03, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 39   @ Kansas St. W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 79   Colorado W 81-67 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 77   @ Utah W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 18, 2025 32   @ BYU W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 89%    
  Feb 24, 2025 79   @ Colorado W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 21   Texas Tech W 78-69 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 3   @ Houston L 66-69 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 11   Arizona W 83-77 68%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.2 7.6 7.5 4.7 1.7 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 6.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.1 10.3 12.2 12.5 12.8 10.7 8.2 4.7 1.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 99.2% 4.7    4.5 0.2
18-2 92.1% 7.5    6.2 1.3 0.1
17-3 70.9% 7.6    4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 40.8% 5.2    2.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 13.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 19.6 7.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 100.0% 64.4% 35.6% 1.1 1.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 4.7% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 1.1 4.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.2% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.2 6.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.7% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.3 7.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.8% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 1.7 6.3 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.5% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.2 3.6 4.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.8 1.6 3.7 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.3% 100.0% 11.6% 88.3% 3.7 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 8.1% 99.3% 7.2% 92.1% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 6.4% 95.7% 3.8% 91.9% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.5%
10-10 4.7% 87.6% 2.5% 85.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 87.3%
9-11 3.2% 64.9% 2.1% 62.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 64.2%
8-12 2.0% 35.9% 0.6% 35.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 35.6%
7-13 1.3% 12.9% 0.4% 12.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 12.5%
6-14 0.7% 2.6% 0.4% 2.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.2%
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.3% 21.3% 73.0% 3.0 32.2 20.7 13.1 8.8 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.7 92.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3