Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#207
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#149
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 5.7% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.3 13.4
.500 or above 28.4% 53.9% 25.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 53.0% 33.3%
Conference Champion 2.7% 6.0% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 8.2% 17.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round2.7% 5.6% 2.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 46 - 311 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 72   @ Butler L 65-78 11%    
  Nov 16, 2024 148   Tulsa L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 19, 2024 145   Texas Arlington L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 24, 2024 125   High Point L 72-77 34%    
  Dec 01, 2024 225   @ Oral Roberts L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 132   Indiana St. L 74-75 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 91   @ Washington St. L 60-72 15%    
  Dec 22, 2024 167   UC Santa Barbara W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 29, 2024 228   @ Evansville L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 01, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 62-74 16%    
  Jan 07, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 62-69 29%    
  Jan 15, 2025 140   Southern Illinois L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 21, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 64-73 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 106   Drake L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 136   Murray St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 112   Northern Iowa L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 12, 2025 228   Evansville W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 16, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 144   Belmont L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 106   @ Drake L 65-75 21%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 11.3 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.7 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.1 7.6 6.2 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 90.6% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 86.7% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 61.1% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 28.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 96.3% 74.1% 22.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
19-1 0.1% 61.9% 51.9% 10.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9%
18-2 0.3% 41.1% 34.9% 6.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.5%
17-3 0.7% 26.7% 25.5% 1.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.6%
16-4 1.3% 20.5% 20.4% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.2%
15-5 2.0% 17.5% 17.4% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
14-6 3.2% 9.9% 9.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
13-7 4.9% 8.3% 8.3% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5
12-8 6.2% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
11-9 7.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
10-10 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
9-11 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
8-12 10.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-13 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.4
6-14 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.7
5-15 8.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
4-16 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
3-17 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-18 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%