IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.2	#270
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#88
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.7	#291

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.5	#222

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.1%	14.1%	6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.3	15.0

.500 or above	46.7%	77.6%	45.5%
.500 or above in Conference	58.0%	79.1%	57.2%
Conference Champion	8.1%	17.8%	7.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.6%	1.7%	5.8%

First Four	1.4%	0.9%	1.4%
First Round	6.4%	13.6%	6.1%
Second Round	0.3%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 5	2 - 9
Quad 4	13 - 8	15 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	38	@ Maryland	L	58-77	4%
Nov 13, 2024	268	@ Bucknell	L	66-69	39%
Nov 16, 2024	354	St. Francis (PA)	W	75-64	85%
Nov 20, 2024	101	@ Georgetown	L	66-80	11%
Nov 23, 2024	340	Delaware St.	W	75-66	79%
Nov 30, 2024	249	@ Howard	L	71-75	36%
Dec 06, 2024	235	@ Marist	L	63-68	34%
Dec 08, 2024	237	Fairfield	W	73-72	54%
Dec 14, 2024	350	Loyola Maryland	W	73-63	82%
Dec 18, 2024	352	@ LIU Brooklyn	W	76-71	65%
Dec 21, 2024	36	@ Miami (FL)	L	65-84	5%
Dec 28, 2024	96	@ George Mason	L	60-74	11%
Jan 05, 2025	308	Niagara	W	73-68	68%
Jan 10, 2025	331	@ Manhattan	W	72-70	56%
Jan 12, 2025	334	Sacred Heart	W	78-70	76%
Jan 16, 2025	241	@ Rider	L	70-74	36%
Jan 18, 2025	212	Quinnipiac	W	76-75	51%
Jan 23, 2025	339	@ Siena	W	69-66	59%
Jan 25, 2025	331	Manhattan	W	75-67	74%
Jan 31, 2025	243	@ Merrimack	L	66-70	36%
Feb 02, 2025	214	@ St. Peter's	L	62-67	32%
Feb 06, 2025	210	Iona	W	71-70	51%
Feb 14, 2025	308	@ Niagara	L	70-71	48%
Feb 16, 2025	297	@ Canisius	L	69-70	46%
Feb 21, 2025	214	St. Peter's	W	65-64	51%
Feb 23, 2025	241	Rider	W	73-71	56%
Feb 28, 2025	237	@ Fairfield	L	70-75	35%
Mar 02, 2025	339	Siena	W	72-63	76%
Mar 06, 2025	212	@ Quinnipiac	L	72-78	33%
Mar 08, 2025	235	Marist	W	66-65	54%
Projected Record						14 - 16	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.7	1.6	2.2	1.8	1.1	0.4	0.1		8.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.4	2.8	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.0				8.6	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.6	3.4	2.7	0.9	0.1						8.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.4	3.8	2.9	0.8	0.1							9.1	4th
5th										0.1	1.3	3.7	3.2	0.7	0.1								9.0	5th
6th									0.0	0.9	3.5	3.5	0.8	0.0									8.8	6th
7th								0.0	0.7	3.2	3.8	1.1	0.0										8.8	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	2.5	3.9	1.4	0.1											8.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.4	2.2	3.6	1.7	0.2	0.0											8.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.4	1.8	3.1	1.8	0.2	0.0												7.3	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	2.6	1.6	0.3	0.0													6.6	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0														5.1	12th
13th	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0															3.3	13th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	2.7	4.2	5.9	7.5	9.0	9.9	10.3	10.0	9.6	8.6	7.0	5.2	3.6	2.1	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
18-2	98.2%	1.1		1.0	0.1	0.0
17-3	83.2%	1.8		1.4	0.4	0.0
16-4	62.5%	2.2		1.3	0.8	0.1	0.0
15-5	31.5%	1.6		0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0
14-6	10.0%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.1%	8.1		4.9	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		60.6%	60.6%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.4%		50.4%	50.4%		12.9												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
18-2	1.1%		38.5%	38.5%		13.5												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
17-3	2.1%		30.8%	30.8%		14.0													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	1.5
16-4	3.6%		24.7%	24.7%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	2.7
15-5	5.2%		18.9%	18.9%		14.9														0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	4.2
14-6	7.0%		15.6%	15.6%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	5.9
13-7	8.6%		11.0%	11.0%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	7.6
12-8	9.6%		8.3%	8.3%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.6	8.8
11-9	10.0%		4.5%	4.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.5
10-10	10.3%		2.7%	2.7%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	10.0
9-11	9.9%		1.7%	1.7%		15.9																0.0	0.2	9.8
8-12	9.0%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
7-13	7.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
6-14	5.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
5-15	4.2%																							4.2
4-16	2.7%																							2.7
3-17	1.6%																							1.6
2-18	0.8%																							0.8
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	15.0												0.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.2	2.8	92.9		0.0%